FanDuel Fantasy Soccer: Saturday EPL Targets

For detailed stats and odds, check out the Fantasy Premier League: Saturday Cheat Sheet.

MATCHES (EST)

10:00 a.m: Brighton v. Liverpool
10:00 a.m: Burnley v. Fulham
10:00 a.m: Cardiff v. Huddersfield
10:00 a.m: Crystal Palace v. Watford
10:00 a.m: Leicester v. Southampton
12:30 p.m: Chelsea v. Newcastle

FORWARDS

Aleksandar Mitrovic, FUL at BRN ($11,000): I don't trust Roberto Firmino ($12,000) in cash games and apparently neither do the oddsmakers since both Divock Origi and Kelechi Iheanacho have better odds to score. I'm not saying Mitrovic is easy to trust, but he costs less and has at least 20 fantasy points in his last three outings thanks to eight shots on goal. He should have a floor close to 15 fantasy points against a Burnley back line that has allowed 10 goals from its last 21 conceded shots on target. That's not a good rate and Mitrovic also scored a brace when these teams met earlier in the season.

Jamie Vardy, LEI v. SOU ($10,000): Vardy has better odds to score, the same floor and is cheaper than Mitrovic. The only problem with Vardy is that he's close to worthless in GPPs, as he's surpassed 25.2 fantasy points just once this season; Mitrovic had 24.5 floor points at Arsenal last match. Even better, Southampton have allowed the second-most shots in the last five gameweeks (76) and are allowing close to two goals per away match. Leicester are in a bit of a scoring funk, but they're expected to score the third-most goals on the slate and Vardy is likely to be involved. Either way, I'd rather bank on Vardy than someone like Pedro ($9,500) or one of the Watford forwards at Crystal Palace.

Ashley Barnes, BRN v. FUL ($8,500): Barnes has suddenly become fantasy relevant with two goals on 14 shots and one assist on five chances created over his last four starts. His floor is still somewhat questionable, but it's better than most in this price range, including teammate Chris Wood ($8,000), who is better for GPPs. The matchup is the main reason to back Burnley since Fulham have allowed 28 goals in 11 away matches. They had some better results around the holidays, but are coming off a 2-1 home loss against Oldham, who play in League Two, in the FA Cup. If you want to save more money and bank on another good matchup, Callum Paterson ($7,500) isn't in form, but he faces lowly Huddersfield, who are playing worse than Fulham.

MIDFIELDERS

Eden Hazard, CHE v. NEW ($11,500): The biggest question on the slate comes in midfield between Hazard and Mohamed Salah ($12,500). Some may stretch for both, but for the purposes of this article, I'm picking one. Hazard is cheaper but has the same odds to score and is playing on the bigger favorite, so it's not that difficult if you think about it. Hazard has had a floor of at least 15 fantasy points at home, and that won't change against Newcastle, who have struggled against top competition and already lost 2-1 at home to Chelsea earlier this season. It'd be a surprise if Hazard didn't make the score sheet for the fourth time in five league matches given how active he is with 10 chances created and seven shots on goal in his last four starts. Salah's floor is often only around 10 fantasy points because he doesn't see the ball as much, and I'm not convinced Liverpool will win easily at Brighton.

James Maddison, LEI v. SOU ($8,500): The ultimate GPP play would be to ride the Maddison-Vardy combo in hopes of a couple goals from Leicester. It makes sense to avoid Maddison given some poor performances, but he's had a decent floor thanks to 2.73 chances created and 0.97 shots on goal per 90 minutes. In addition to allowing a ton of shots, Southampton have given up the second-most chances (60) and fourth-most crosses (106) in the last five matches, which is where Maddison usually makes value. In his last match at home against Cardiff, his floor was at 27.9 fantasy points. If you want someone from Liverpool and don't want to spend, Sadio Mane ($9,500) is a good pivot.

James Ward-Prowse, SOU at LEI ($7,500): Since Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is suspended, Ward-Prowse makes sense as a value play with at least 14.7 fantasy points in all five starts this season. The problem is that a lot of those numbers came from the defensive variety, as four of those matches were on the road (Everton, Man City, Tottenham, Chelsea) and the other one was home against Man City. Still, he's on set pieces and averaging 3.19 chances created per 90 minutes, and while his defensive stats may not be as big, the potential is much more than anyone else in this range. Andros Townsend ($8,000) has the same kind of upside while players from Burnley and Fulham are always harder to predict. If you like Burnley, Ashley Westwood ($7,500) and Johann Berg Gudmundsson ($7,000) are a good route, but if you prefer Fulham on the road, Andre Schurrle ($7,500) and Jean Michael Seri ($7,000) are similarly price.

DEFENDERS

Fabian Schar, NEW at CHE ($6,500): Schar could have a floor near 20 points in this match since he usually leads Newcastle in defensive stats, averaging 7.75 clearances, 3.65 interceptions and 3.08 tackles per 90 minutes. He's had at least 13 fantasy points in every start and, more importantly, Chelsea will be on the attack most of the match. Over the last five gameweeks, the Blues have allowed the most interceptions (48), fourth-most tackles (40) and sixth-most clearances (88) to defenders. Sol Bamba ($6,500) is in the same mold, but he'll be more popular, and that's why I like Schar a little more.

Greg Cunningham, CAR v. HUD ($4,500): Cunningham doesn't have a high floor as a left-back, but he's had at least 12 fantasy points in his last four starts, and has a chance for a clean sheet while also getting up the field more than usual. He doesn't often accrue stats from clearances, but Huddersfield have forced the most out of defenders this season so that definitely doesn't hurt. I don't feel comfortable with anyone else in this range, so if you have a few extra bucks, Jannik Vestergaard ($5,000) is a better play.

Gaeten Bong, BHA v. LIV ($4,000): Bong is set to return to the starting XI since Bernardo pulled his hamstring last match. This is purely a value play since Bong rarely surpassed 10 fantasy points when he was starting. At the least, he'll be on the defensive end most of the match against a Liverpool side that is in the top five of forcing interceptions, blocks, tackles and clearances. If you don't like Bong's lower floor, Cyrus Christie ($4,000) is another place to turn, and he's had a floor above 15 fantasy points at times.

GOALKEEPER

Vicente Guaita, CRY v. WAT ($4,500): I'd be more confident in this play but Watford rarely get shut out. I still think Guaita is worth the gamble, as Palace have allowed just one goal in their last four at home. If you're not backing anyone from Leicester, Angus Gunn ($4,500) is a viable choice that not many others will use. Meanwhile, Neil Etheridge ($5,000) is the next level up, while Alisson ($6,000) makes the most sense if you want to spend.