This article is part of our DFS Soccer 101 series.
Leading into the international break we were left with a Premier League that has the top four teams separated by just two points, with Leicester City a surprise addition to a group that includes both Manchester clubs and Arsenal. And surprisingly, the bottom quarter of the table includes the defending champions, Chelsea, who for some odd reason have failed to get their championship defense campaign started on the right foot and now sit just three points out of the relegation zone having lost SEVEN of their opening 12 fixtures. So what does this have to do with fantasy soccer? Everything.Understanding a team's form is key to determining what sort of strategy the manager will try to employ in the upcoming weeks. Some teams will deem it necessary to play conservatively in order to try to hold onto table position and head into the grueling December/January schedule with their squad in good shape. Other teams will feature plenty of squad rotation in order to preserve legs that could (and will) get tired as the season progresses. While still others will be pushing hard to try to regain lost points and position themselves for an improved run in the remaining 26 weeks of Premier League soccer.
All this is just a long way to say that form and schedule should be a major factor in your calculations when trying to determine team makeup and potential strategy heading into Gameweek 13 of fantasy footy. For this article I'll attempt to tackle exactly that. Where have teams looked in terms of form in recent weeks heading into the international break and which players have played well, but just haven't seen the fruits of their labor… yet.
Touches
As detailed in this space previously, touches are the biggest indicator for whether or not a player is getting involved in his team's attack and whether or not that player is getting the opportunities to be effective. The table below details the top-15 players in terms of touches in the final third over the last four gameweeks. The table also includes shots taken, goals and assists.
| Player | Club | Assists | Goal | Shots | SOT | Avg. Touches in Final Third (last four weeks) | Avg. Touches in Final Third (Season) |
| Mesut Ozil |  | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 44.00 | 45.64 |
| Alexis Sanchez | | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 36.50 | 41.75 |
| Christian Eriksen |  | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 35.50 | 30.11 |
| Philippe Coutinho |  | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 34.75 | 36.27 |
| Ross Barkley |  | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 34.75 | 32.50 |
| Kevin De Bruyne |  | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 34.75 | 45.00 |
| Jesus Navas | | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 34.75 | 37.42 |
| Dimitri Payet |  | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 34.25 | 33.67 |
| Dusan Tadic |  | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 34.00 | 32.82 |
| Matt Ritchie |  | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 33.50 | 31.00 |
| Willian |  | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 33.25 | 26.00 |
| Robbie Brady |  | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 33.00 | 29.33 |
| Romelu Lukaku | | 2 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 32.25 | 28.33 |
| Diego Costa | | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 31.25 | 31.20 |
| Adam Lallana | | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 30.75 | 22.88 |
Looking at the table above, it makes it clear that there are a few new realities we must consider, especially if you subscribe to the theory that touches will translate to opportunities that will translate to goals.
Arsenal's front players are still the kings in terms of touches. Both Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez are consistently two of the top players in terms of touches, which in effect explains their high fantasy output all season, especially Ozil, who leads the Premier League in assists. Meanwhile, Alexis played yet another full 90 minutes for Chile against Colombia in World Cup qualifying this week. Look for Alexis to continue to show some fatigue which could affect his performances. Also, don't be surprised to see him rested in any of the upcoming fixtures as the Gunners look to get their most prized player some rest this winter.
Kevin De Bruyne's touches have dropped significantly in the last four gameweeks. He averages almost 10 more touches per game in the final third over the season than he did in the last four matches, which could be a sign that without Sergio Aguero, the Belgian is not having getting as involved in the midfield as he used to.
Eden Hazard is not on this list, and that in itself is a surprise, as he's seen his touches in the final third per week drop from 37.92 on the season down to 24.25 in the last four weeks, which included a sub off at the 59th minute as well as a 12th minute sub-on in Gameweek 9 versus Aston Villa (coincidentally, Chelsea's last win). In his place, we see Willian has jumped up the totem pole in terms of touches, as he has added 7.25 touches per game as well as a pair of assists in that period. What isn't shown is his game-saving goal versus Dinamo Kyiv in the Champions League. Willian has taken over as the free-kick specialist for Chelsea and is now the safest option on the squad given his high volume as well as general effectiveness in terms of fantasy output.
Adam Lallana has a big increase in touches as he goes from 22 per game to 30 in the final third. This puts him in the top-15 players in terms of opportunities and he's been taking advantage of it in Jurgen Klopp's new system, taking 10 shots in the last four weeks, and while none of them have reached the back of the net, he's bound to deliver on his shots sooner rather than later.
Shots
And while touches tell us who's getting their teammates to pass them the ball the most, they don't really tell us who is giving us the most fantasy points in recent weeks to take advantage of those touches. The next thing we'll examine is the number of shots taken by players in the last four weeks.
| Player | Club | Assists | Goals | Shots | SOT | Touches in Final Third | DK Points |
| Jamie Vardy |  | 0 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 25.25 | 22.50 |
| Harry Kane | | 0 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 24.00 | 25.00 |
| Olivier Giroud | | 0 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 24.50 | 17.00 |
| Philippe Coutinho | | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 34.75 | 17.38 |
| Wilfried Bony | | 1 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 22.25 | 14.13 |
| Odion Ighalo |  | 2 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 25.75 | 16.63 |
| Alexis Sanchez | | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 36.50 | 11.50 |
| Ross Barkley | | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 34.75 | 15.25 |
| Dimitri Payet | | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 34.25 | 16.88 |
| Matt Ritchie | | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 33.50 | 21.13 |
| Romelu Lukaku | | 2 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 32.25 | 15.00 |
| Troy Deeney | | 0 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 30.25 | 14.38 |
| Raheem Sterling | | 0 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 25.50 | 14.38 |
| Sadio Mane | | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 30.25 | 14.50 |
| Wayne Rooney |  | 0 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 29.50 | 11.25 |
| Graziano Pelle | | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 28.75 | 7.625 |
| Riyad Mahrez | | 2 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 28.50 | 18.75 |
| Ayoze Perez |  | 1 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 28.25 | 21.50 |
| Bafetimbi Gomis |  | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 20.25 | 5.75 |
The first thing that stands out is that we see two Watford players on this list, with Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney both having taken 13 and 12 shots, respectively, with four goals shared between them on eight shots on target. And while Watford is not in a favorable matchup in the coming week (Manchester United is coming to visit), these two players should be on your radar in later weeks when the matchups are easier.
Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane are both leading the way in terms of shots and goals. Kane is boosted by his hat trick a few weeks back and Vardy by his incredible run of at least one goal in nine straight matches, which puts them front and center targets for your fantasy squads. With upcoming fixtures against West Ham and Newcastle, respectively, there is no reason to fade them this weekend.
Alexis still shows himself as a top shot taker. I was hoping he would get some rest over the international break, but given that he did not rest and had to travel to South America and back, it will be very difficult to recommend him against a tough West Bromwich Albion defense in Gameweek 13.
Bafetembi Gomis should be your target instead of Alexis, as he's taken 11 shots with no goals while averaging just a putrid 5.75 DraftKings points in the last four gameweeks. With Swansea hosting Bournemouth this weekend, it's a perfect opportunity for the Swans man to get back on track.
Without Dimitri Payet, somebody on the West Ham squad will have to step up if the Hammers are to continue their impressive early season form. Manuel Lanzini should be the target man having shown up from the UAE this season, and he has two goals in the last four weeks with a 13.25 fantasy point average.
Also, we notice that Kane's production is starting to take off and that is in no small part due to the improved performance of Christian Eriksen, whose play is producing better shots for Kane. We should continue to see this trend over the coming weeks as Tottenham have West Ham and Chelsea visiting over the next two.
Crosses
| Player | Club | Avg. Crosses (last four weeks) | Avg. Crosses (season) | Difference | Avg. DK Points (last four) | Avg. DK Points (season) | Difference |
| Matt Ritchie | | 11.00 | 7.67 | +3.33 | 21.13 | 17.00 | +4.13 |
| Marc Albrighton | | 10.75 | 8.33 | +2.42 | 19.63 | 16.63 | +3.00 |
| Dusan Tadic | | 9.00 | 8.82 | +0.18 | 18.63 | 19.23 | -0.61 |
| Robbie Brady | | 9.00 | 9.17 | -0.17 | 15.38 | 17.33 | -1.96 |
| Dimitri Payet | | 7.75 | 8.50 | -0.75 | 16.88 | 20.00 | -3.13 |
| Ayoze Perez | | 7.00 | 3.60 | +3.40 | 21.50 | 14.40 | +7.10 |
| James McClean |  | 7.00 | 4.92 | +2.08 | 12.88 | 9.79 | +3.06 |
| Alberto Moreno | | 6.50 | 5.36 | +1.14 | 14.38 | 10.64 | +3.74 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | | 6.50 | 6.63 | -0.13 | 13.75 | 19.31 | -5.56 |
| Xherdan Shaqiri |  | 6.50 | 5.11 | +1.39 | 9.38 | 9.72 | -0.35 |
| Mesut Ozil | | 6.50 | 5.73 | +0.77 | 20.38 | 17.14 | +3.26 |
| Jesus Montero | | 6.50 | 6.00 | +0.50 | 8.88 | 11.23 | -2.36 |
| Willian | | 6.00 | 3.36 | +2.64 | 18.25 | 12.36 | +5.89 |
| Stephane Sessegnon | | 6.00 | 6.00 | 0.00 | 13.75 | 13.75 | 0.00 |
| Charlie Daniels | | 5.75 | 4.73 | +1.02 | 11.125 | 9.14 | +1.96 |
As noted in last week's article, crosses are a key factor and contributor to DraftKings success, as players that perform well in the DraftKings scoring more often than not have a combination of crosses and goals in that week's game.
Looking at the table above at the top crossing players in the last four weeks, we see how the crossing numbers changed compared to their season long average. The notable common theme is that all of the players prefer to play on the wings in the attack and that obviously aids in their crossing potential. Moreover, there are a few that have seen their crossing numbers increase, and with that, their average DK points increased as well.
The largest gainer in crosses over the last four weeks was Ayoze Perez, whose Newcastle team has had its best run of the season with seven points in their last four games compared to three in their first eight. Perez also has the largest increase in DK fantasy points over the last four periods with an increase of 7.1 fantasy points per game. This is undoubtedly buoyed by his giant performance against Stoke City when he ended up with 17 crosses (out of 43 total for the season). I would expect to see Perez's scoring to drop in the near future as his averages return back to normal (around 10-15 fantasy points a week, with 3-5 crosses)
Conclusion:
Overall, it looks like we can expect an increase in production from a few key players, including Adam Lallana, Manuel Lanzini, Ross Barkley and Bafetembi Gomis, while I would be skeptical of an improvement from Alexis Sanchez, Ayoze Perez and Kevin De Bruyne. Meanwhile, there are some players whose increase in production should continue, including Willian, Jamie Vardy, Harry Kane and Christian Eriksen.
