This article is part of our DFS Soccer 101 series.
The Premier League season will come to an end in just eight weeks, though teams will play seven, eight or nine matches in that span. This season has experienced some of the most dramatic shifts and turns. After starting the season as defending champs, Chelsea have found themselves fighting the ghosts of relegation (they're comfortably out now). In the same breath, the likely usurper at the beginning of the season, Manchester City, now find themselves in fourth place, 15 points behind the leaders with just one game in hand. Speaking of the leaders, the 2015/16 season will be best remembered for Leicester City, who were in last place on March 21, 2015. The height of improbability of this feat has been covered ad nauseam, so I won't dwell on it here, other than to highlight how absolutely crazy this season has been.
So what's this article about anyway? I'll attempt to break down which teams have something to play for and try to configure that information for daily fantasy purposes. After all, you're here to get better at building daily fantasy soccer lineups and learn a bit more about how to think about the game.
One of the key aspects of daily fantasy is remembering that the players we select are not just names on a screen or numbers in a spreadsheet but are human beings who go out there with real motivations and play real games that affect their very real lives. And while we can never know a player's true feelings the morning of the match, we can try to configure the general feeling of the clubhouse through media coverage, the team's recent form and, in general, what they have to play for.
So what is at stake this season? Of course, first place is the Premier League title, and that comes with plenty of mystique on its own. However, there are more things to consider; England sends four teams to the Champions League and a fifth to the Europa League. In fact, they could send more teams to Europa depending on who wins the domestic cups. Manchester City already won the Capital One Cup (League Cup), and they would play in Europa if they do not qualify for the Champions League. If they do finish in the top-four, another Premier League side would head to Europa.
As for the FA Cup, we still have the semi-finals to go, and if the winner falls out of European placement in the table, then that adds another spot for England in the tournament as well. Ultimately, a team could finish as low as seventh and still qualify for a spot in Europe next season.
On the other end of the spectrum, Aston Villa, Newcastle and Sunderland are currently slated for relegation. There are roughly three to five other teams that are possible "contenders" for the relegated spots, and it would take teams roughly 35 to 40 points to guarantee survival in the Premier League for another season.
So, let's break down some of the teams we should really look to consider for DFS based on their position in the standings.
Leicester City
The rags-to-riches story is just too amazing, and when you consider that they are in the pole position and looking to cement that spot as the season comes to a close, these players must be feeling all the pressure that comes along with such a major accomplishment.
Looking ahead at their coming fixtures, they have four home games and three road games, playing Southampton, West Ham, Swansea and Everton at home while they travel to Sunderland, Manchester United and Chelsea to close out the season. They are five points clear of Tottenham and could conceivably wrap up their title by matchday 37 against Everton or sooner, depending on whether Tottenham drop any points. For this team, I'll consider Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez, Marc Albrighton and Kaspar Schmeichel every single week. Schmeichel and Albrighton might be the most alluring options, as their prices never seem to rise too high, while Vardy and Mahrez are the reasons they are in first place. I expect five to eight goals between the two of them for the rest of the season.
Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs are just five points behind Leicester and, more importantly, 11 points out of fifth place. As a reminder, a finish in the top four guarantees a Champions League spot next season. However, their schedule is not easy, as they have home matches against Manchester United, West Brom and Southampton, while they play away to Liverpool, Stoke, Chelsea and Newcastle. Each of those teams have ambitions for Europe for next season or are fighting to stay up, so Tottenham shouldn't expect to have an easy go at it. If they are to be successful, then Harry Kane and Dele Alli must shine, but they'll also need some exceptional performances from Christian Eriksen and Hugo Lloris to keep the pressure on Leicester, but more importantly to not slip to fifth.
Arsenal
Arsenal are 10 points out of first, and while hope looks very slim at the moment, they are actually facing a relatively easy schedule. With a game at hand, and five of their last eight at home and against teams in the bottom half of the table, Arsenal also have a relatively easy away fixture at Sunderland (who are fighting relegation as well). Arsenal could reach 70 points, which wouldn't be enough to win the title, but they'll be a threat to Leicester should the Foxes slip up. Arsenal's bigger prize at this point is Champions League qualification,as they are just five points ahead of West Ham and Manchester United. They have a big matchup with West Ham on April 9 at the Boleyn Ground, as well as another tough matchup at the Etihad with Manchester City. Look for Arsenal to try to reverse the flow of their season and continue what they started with the win over Everton last time out. I expect we'll see Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez, along with whoever starts up front between Danny Welbeck and Olivier Giroud, to be the top performers in the upcoming weeks. And the full backs continue to be heavily involved in the attack.
Manchester City
Manchester City suffered a serious blow when Kevin De Bruyne was out injured, and even more so with the mixed availability of Sergio Aguero, who has missed eight Premier League games this season. The good news is that KDB could be back this weekend for the visit to Bournemouth, while Aguero has been doing everything but score the ball in the last three matches. City are still in the Champions League quarter finals, where they play Paris Saint-Germain, which means they'll have to think hard about squad rotation, and for a slightly older squad, they'll need KDB to be back sooner than later. My top targets from this team will usually center on the shot takers, Aguero and Yaya Toure, and the crossers Jesus Navas and David Silva. This team has eight games left, with three at home and five on the road. They do, however, get the luxury of playing two or three teams that should be safe from relegation and not in contention for European spots, which puts them at an advantage since they still have something to play for.
West Ham
West Ham are a DFS favorite, as they are a top-five team yet their players never seem to be overpriced. I find myself routinely targeting players such as Manuel Lanzini, Michail Antonio and Diafra Sakho. Their schedule looks scary, as they face Arsenal, Leicester and Manchester United, then they also have to deal with Watford, Swansea and Crystal Palace, who are all on the doorstep of relegation. However, their schedule is more appealing than it looks on paper, as they are playing five of their remaining games at home, and while that is the case, I will likely not be targeting any Hammers in my teams until late April since they play Arsenal and Leicester before that. Their top play week-in and week-out is Dimitri Payet, who has been superb and is the reason they are contending for a spot in Europe. Payet has been their leading shot taker, goal-scorer and crosser. He has a high floor and as high a ceiling as anybody in the Premier League. If the matchup is right, my teams usually start with him.
Manchester United
While United have looked average almost all season and have lacked offensive punch for much of it, they seem to have at least found a spark plug who can energize the fanbase and the players in a final push to finish in the top four. United six in sixth place, one point behind Manchester City, with eight games left. With five of those matches at home, you can expect United to have the inside track and have all the reasons to fight hard for the next few weeks to guarantee a spot in the Champions League. The main players to consider week in and week out for United are Marcus Rashford and Daley Blind, who have both been some of the top performers of late.
There are a handful of other teams that will likely drop points in the next two gameweeks and likely drop out of contention for the Champions League spots, including Liverpool, Southampton, Stoke, Chelsea and West Brom. And while these teams may be contending for Europa League spots, it's tough to know which teams will be really going for it.
Relegation Zone
As for the relegation zone, it's much tougher to decide if a player is worth taking from a team that has been playing terribly all season, which is why they may be sent down to the Championship.
Some of the top players to consider in this group, which includes Sunderland, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Norwich, and Crystal Palace are:
Wahbi Khazri – The Sunderland midfielder has been tremendous since his arrival in the Premier League, averaging 13.7 fantasy points per game in seven matches. He's shown flashes of confidence and others of irresponsibility. He plays like he's showcasing his talents for potential suitors once Sunderland gets relegated, and while this hurts his team, it certainly helps his fantasy output, as he's taking shots and getting plenty of touches in the opponents' third.
Justin Veretout – He's a top crossing midfielder for Aston Villa, and while his upside is very limited, he has a good floor. His team has been dreadful this season and they're all but assured a drop to the Championship, but Veretout is a worthy DFS choice in a high paced matchup.
Yohan Cabaye – Crystal Palace will likely escape relegation, but in the meantime, they'll rely on their French midfielder to anchor their defense and start their attack, as he leads the team in crosses and interceptions. Cabaye is a great cash-game play almost every week, and while his price tends to be a bit high on DraftKings, he does show some promise on a weekly basis with crosses, interceptions, shots and tackles.
Moussa Sissoko – Newcastle could still escape relegation, but it's an uphill climb and they'll need their opponents to slip up. In the meantime, they'll also need to win their own matches, and that will come from the likes of Sissoko, Ayoze Perez and Georginio Wijnaldum stepping up and showing the potential to stay in the top flight. Sissoko is a crossing midfielder who takes lots of shots when the opportunity presents itself.
As always, each play is dependent on the situation they're in, and some matchups are better than others. But these are the players I recommend keeping an eye on for the remainder of the season.
