DFS Soccer 101: Are Cash Games Worth It?

This article is part of our DFS Soccer 101 series.

If you read any advice column on how to best approach bankroll management, you'll find the 80-20 rule (80 percent in cash games, 20 percent in GPPs), which serves the purpose of covering potential losses in GPPs as you make riskier plays and go after some tougher tournaments. But over the course of the season, the minimum cash line for GPPs and 50/50s or double ups start converging towards each other, and the score it takes to cash in 50/50s becomes eerily close to the score it takes to cash in a large tournament. This is true in some of the more popular sports like NFL, NBA and MLB, but is it true in soccer? Over the last few weeks I've found that playing cash games is great if your cash team can cash in a tournament. However, if it doesn't cash in the tournament, it usually wasn't cashing in the 50/50s and double ups either. This has led me to the conclusion that for remainder of the season, cash games are dead.

So how can we build reliable tournament lineups with the hope of maintaining profitability and prolonging our enjoyment of this game we all enjoy? The top option would be to target reliable tournament players who can deliver a minimum set of points while also providing an upside that only comes with goal scoring or assists. Of course, rostering a player who can score a hat-trick will always be helpful, but sometimes you need to spend up a little and get that player who will take shots, send in crosses and provide a couple of tackles and interceptions as well. For this article, I'll look at the players who, in the last few weeks, were top of the list of crosses+shots.

That being said, here are a few players, most of which are playing this weekend, who should be safe options in GPPs:

James Milner
The midfielder had me worried Wednesday when he started as part of a double pivot in the Merseyside derby and then picked up an early yellow card. But despite that, a look at his heat map shows that he generated plenty of action up the right side for Liverpool, delivering 14 crosses and picking up two assists.

He didn't take a single shot, and he's actually only taken two in the last four matches, and Milner is usually priced in the $6K range, which puts him in the upper echelon midfielder tier.

Gylfi Sigurdsson
Swansea are coming off an embarrassing 3-0 loss to Newcastle, which helped the latter greatly in their relegation battle. Now that Swansea are only 10 points ahead with four matches to play, they'll need roughly four more points to clinch their spot in the Premier League next season. Playing Leicester City on Sunday, I expect that they'll be very defensive to try to get a point, which would put them in very good position to avoid relegation. One thing they'll also be taking advantage of is the lack of Jamie Vardy on their opponents side. The hole created by Vardy's absence may end up resulting in some advancement by the midfielders, such as Danny Drinkwater, to push the attack further. That would open up the counter attack to Swansea, and in particular Sigurdsson, who can orchestrate a key pass or two to a marauding attacker on the counter that could result in a goal. So why is Sigurdsson considered a safe option? If Swansea were to go down early, I can see them putting the pressure on in the second half to equalize, which would result in a lot of crosses.

Christian Eriksen
Eriksen has a reputation as a player who shoots first and asks questions later. His reputation isn't ill conceived. In the last six weeks he has taken 18 shots (six on target) but has scored just one goal. He loves to fire them off, but he also creates chances for his teammates. He has the luxury of playing alongside one of the best strikers in the league in Harry Kane and will deliver crosses through corners and open play regularly. He averages almost eight crosses+shots per game, and for a relatively high price he's worth every penny.

Jesus Navas
This may not be the best play in the world, as Kevin De Bruyne usually dominates ownership in the tournaments, but if David Silva's ankle injury holds him out, Navas may be get some opportunities. In the last few matches he's averaged eight crosses + shots per game; seven of those came straight from crosses and with a hawk like Sergio Aguero on his team, he'll be active in the attack.

Yannick Bolasie
Palace are playing in the FA Cup on Sunday, so they won't be an option for EPL DFS this weekend (though you can play fantasy FA Cup over at Mondogoal). Nevertheless, this could be a play you put in your back pocket for the following week when Palace visit Newcastle in a fight for survival. At the moment, Palace's magic number is six points for guaranteed survival. A visit to Newcastle won't be easy given that Newcastle are more desperate than the Eagles. However, if Bolasie gets the start (he started against Arsenal as a left forward in a 4-4-2) he can be a great play as it puts him in goal-scoring opportunities for a usually cheap price. Keep an eye out for news prior to the match, as Palace tend to rotate their midfielders, but I like Bolasie against Newcastle.

Finally, what do we do about Leicester without Jamie Vardy? The obvious answer is Riyad Mahrez, and I suspect a lot of DFS players will gravitate towards him given the name recognition and his early season form. However, if you've watch Mahrez from late February on, you'll notice that he isn't playing with the same intensity. He still has the skill, but this was the Mahrez we saw in the 2014-15 season prior to Leicester going on their season-saving run and prior to their magnificent season this term. Mahrez is either injured or defenses have figured out how to neutralize him. I'm leaning towards the former.

The pivots from Mahrez are Marc Albrighton, as he still takes the majority of corners, and Christian Fuchs. However, Albrighton will be over owned and over priced. My favorite play will be Danny Drinkwater, who's been referred to as the puppetmaster by Vardy and recently got a call-up to the England national team. Without Vardy in the squad, Drinkwater was the only player who's touches in the final third increased. I expect that he'll play the part of playmaker for Leicester against Swansea and should find fantasy success because of it.