This article is part of our Best Bets series.
Welcome back after the international break! Hopefully you all prospered during the international tournaments and the leagues that ran last week, but if you were waiting patiently for your big leagues to come back then I am right there with you. Last time out, RotoWire bets went 12-9-1 for a $145 profit. That brings our total to 49-42-2 and +5.58 units, or $558. We have recovered nicely from that horrendous week a little while back and are slowly crawling back up the profit ladder with smart bets. I have reduced the volume a bit after the international break (as I personally tend to do) and hope you enjoy the selection this week.
Let's keep rolling:
PREMIER LEAGUE (ENGLAND)
Crystal Palace vs. West Ham United: Over 2.5 @ -120
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. (EDT)
This is more of a bet against West Ham's defending than it is for Crystal Palace's attack because early into this season, West Ham have been shocking on the road. Conceding four to West Brom can only be described as shocking, in my opinion, but West Ham are obviously not going to win matches with defense at this point and should be looking to attack at all costs. Crystal Palace have actually been on a bit of a hot streak, going unbeaten in their last five, and though they have faced an easier section of the table of late, their form has dramatically improved since the start of the season. They haven't been shut out in their last
Welcome back after the international break! Hopefully you all prospered during the international tournaments and the leagues that ran last week, but if you were waiting patiently for your big leagues to come back then I am right there with you. Last time out, RotoWire bets went 12-9-1 for a $145 profit. That brings our total to 49-42-2 and +5.58 units, or $558. We have recovered nicely from that horrendous week a little while back and are slowly crawling back up the profit ladder with smart bets. I have reduced the volume a bit after the international break (as I personally tend to do) and hope you enjoy the selection this week.
Let's keep rolling:
PREMIER LEAGUE (ENGLAND)
Crystal Palace vs. West Ham United: Over 2.5 @ -120
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. (EDT)
This is more of a bet against West Ham's defending than it is for Crystal Palace's attack because early into this season, West Ham have been shocking on the road. Conceding four to West Brom can only be described as shocking, in my opinion, but West Ham are obviously not going to win matches with defense at this point and should be looking to attack at all costs. Crystal Palace have actually been on a bit of a hot streak, going unbeaten in their last five, and though they have faced an easier section of the table of late, their form has dramatically improved since the start of the season. They haven't been shut out in their last five games, and while just three of the five have gone over, the other two were a road match against a quality Everton side and a meet-up against Bournemouth. The stats don't lie here: Palace have conceded in every match this season, while West Ham have conceded in every away match while hitting the over 71 percent of the time.
Stoke City vs. Sunderland: Both teams to score = YES @ -130
Saturday, 10:00 a.m.
I actually like the over in this match as well, but given how much these teams enjoy drawing 1-1, I will play a little bit safer bet and shoot for both teams to score a goal. For all their troubles, Sunderland have only been shut out twice this season and those two games were against Tottenham and Everton. They aren't quite achieving results, with just two points to show for the season, but they are scoring against teams they should be scoring against. On the other side of this coin, Stoke City are the worst home team in the league and have conceded in every match. However, they should be feeling a bit better about their squad after a remarkable effort to grab a point at Old Trafford before the international break. This isn't the worst team I have ever seen, they are just having a massive amount of difficulty scoring and that should all be cured by a visit from Sunderland, who have yet to keep a clean sheet this season.
LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)
Nice vs. Lyon: Nice pk @ +100
Friday, 2:45 p.m.
"Best Bets: Or how Chris Henne finds a way to pick Nice every single week" would be a more appropriate article title at this point. Honestly, I am running out of new statistics to back up why Nice are the best team in French football right now and I would love for oddsmakers to get in touch with me and explain why they are giving away money every week. Lyon is a good club, let's not avoid the elephant in the room, but Nice is the high-water mark of Ligue 1 right now and are plus money on a pick goal spread at home? Usually if it looks like a trap and feels like a trap, it's a trap, but not in this scenario: Lyon are not the same on the road. They won against the dreadful Nancy, who have managed only one point at home, and then only mustered one point against a combination of Dijon, Marseille and Lorient; far from powerhouse clubs. Nice should win this, so if you want to roll with the +175 odds on the money line that's a great price, but I'm playing a safer bet with the pk any time I can get it at plus money.
Saint-Etienne vs. Dijon: Over 2.5 @ +115
Sunday, 11:00 a.m.
I will admit I was hoping this total would show up at 2.0 goals, but we asked for better totals in Ligue 1 and beggars can't be choosers in this situation. This is a riskier play looking at the away team considering Dijon have scored only one of their 11 goals in an opponent's stadium, but Saint-Etienne are one of the best home teams in the league and have only dropped two points out of a possible 12 on home turf. 'Le Chaudron' is not a kind stadium to poor road teams, as similarly struggling Lille and Montpellier conceded three a piece. Dijon have been in slightly better form of late, scoring six in their last two matches, and I expect some of that attack to carry over, but even in the absence of that scenario, Saint-Etienne has the ability to cover the 2.5 goals on their own in this stadium.
MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER (USA)
Montreal Impact vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC team total Over 1.5 goals @ +150
Sunday, 3:00 p.m.
I like a lot of situations in this game and I will certainly be throwing Toronto +1 (-275) into a few parlays, but it's quite obvious that Vegas expects this to be a higher-scoring game and likes Montreal to do the heavier lifting on the score sheet. However, I am playing the narrative angle. Toronto were rolling towards a first round bye in the MLS playoffs and a late-season home stand was supposed to lock that up. Remember, the unavailability of BMO Field early in the season has led to a home-heavy second half, but sometimes a trip away from home can energize a team. TFC have not won in their last five home matches (with poor matches littered throughout) but have won their last three away and are the second best road team in the entire league. Toronto are scoring almost half of their goals on the road and get to face the third-worst Eastern Conference home team, who concede 1.81 goals per match at Saputo. Toronto FC might not win this match, but it should be high scoring. The away team has come into Montreal and scored over 1.5 goals nine times, as well.
Colorado Rapids vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams To Score and Over/Under 2.5 Goals = NO and Under 2.5 Goals +105
Thursday, 9:00 p.m.
This prop bet is a mouthful so let me quickly explain: this is not a parlay, this is a game prop. Some cites have a section for MLS game props, and if you use a sports book with quality soccer offerings you should have this bet as well. If not, shop around. What this bet says in plain English is that both teams will not score, and the total score will be under 2.5 goals. So we have five outcomes: 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-1, and 0-2. Any of those score lines will win us this bet, and when you look at Colorado vs. San Jose, I have a hard time seeing San Jose getting on the board. The under 2.5 is way too pricy, and a 0-0 draw is too legitimate of a possibility to bet on Colorado winning, but the Rapids have only conceded five times at home all season and should have no trouble keeping a clean sheet here.
LA LIGA (SPAIN)
My favorite bet in La Liga this weekend is actually Monday's matchup between Eibar and Osasuna, so while I will not be tracking that bet in this article, I love Eibar to win there. My one play for La Liga this weekend is:
Two team parlay @ +169
Atletico Madrid vs Granada: Over 2.5
Villarreal vs. Celta Vigo: Under 2.5
Saturday, 12:30 p.m.
The total goals on Madrid vs. Granada has crept up to 3.0, so if you'd like to play this parlay you need a book that offers alternate totals. The price on 2.5 is -175, which is way more than I'd like to pay, so I'm pairing it with another high-juice total that I think has a very good chance of hitting. I will be rolling these two bets into parlays, as they are very safe plays. Even though Madrid have played to the under in 71 percent of their matches, Granada's three road matches have all hit the over due to shoddy defending. They have allowed 10 of their 16 goals on the road, and Atletico should roll over them here. In the other match, only two of Villarreal's seven matches have gone over 2.5, and while Celta Vigo play to the over more than half the time, a match on the road against a team that has only conceded twice at home is certainly not a good omen.
SERIE A (ITALY)
More like Serie "A-hhhhh" this week, eh? I might take a shot with Napoli at home at even money, but with this combination of matchups and prices, I will be avoiding Italy like the plague this week. Remember, if it looks like a trap, it probably is! Here's looking at you, Genoa and Sassuolo money lines.
AROUND THE WORLD
Argentina: Independiente vs. Atletico Tucuman - Over 2 @ -140
Argentina: Arsenal vs. San Lorenzo - Over 2 @ -140
Denmark: Midtjylland vs. Aalborg - Over 2.5 @ -140
Germany: Wolfsburg vs. Leipzig - Wolfsburg team total Under 1.5 @ -145
Norway: Sarpsborg vs. Rosenborg - Under 2.5 @ +115
Poland: Zaglebie Lubin vs. Lechia Gdansk - Over 2.5 @ +105
Ukraine: Zirka vs. Vorskla - Under 2 @ +105
Ukraine: Zorya vs. Volyn - Over 2.5 @ -110
Over 2.5 Parlay @ +538
Sydney FC vs. CC Mariners
Perth Glory vs. Wellington Phoenix
Chelsea vs. Leicester City
Mainz vs. Darmstadt
