This article is part of our Best Bets series.
Last week's article provided seven bets, resulting in three wins and four losses for a total loss of $170 dollars, or 1.7 units. That brings our two-week total to seven wins and six losses for a $30 (0.3 unit) profit. A losing week is not ideal, but it does bring a great talking point before we jump into the picks: plan to lose. That seems counterintuitive, doesn't it? However, a sports bettor that assumes they will never lose is a sports bettor that will have no money very quickly. All we can do is try to beat the oddsmakers, we cannot control the weather, the effort of the players, outside forces, etc. This is why you should never be risking more than you can afford to lose, but also you should be risking a consistent amount for each bet. If you risk more money after you lose a bet (called "chasing a loss") you will only fall further down the rabbit hole of bad bankroll management. We don't need to adjust our units, we just need to get back into the books and prepare to attack another weekend.
So here we go:
PREMIER LEAGUE (ENGLAND)
Spread - Chelsea vs. Burnley: Burnley +1.5 @ +100
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. (EDT)
Burnley have had a decent opening to their Premier League return, playing well in a 0-1 loss to Swansea and then handling Liverpool at home in Week 2. Going on the road to face Chelsea will be a much tougher task, but
Last week's article provided seven bets, resulting in three wins and four losses for a total loss of $170 dollars, or 1.7 units. That brings our two-week total to seven wins and six losses for a $30 (0.3 unit) profit. A losing week is not ideal, but it does bring a great talking point before we jump into the picks: plan to lose. That seems counterintuitive, doesn't it? However, a sports bettor that assumes they will never lose is a sports bettor that will have no money very quickly. All we can do is try to beat the oddsmakers, we cannot control the weather, the effort of the players, outside forces, etc. This is why you should never be risking more than you can afford to lose, but also you should be risking a consistent amount for each bet. If you risk more money after you lose a bet (called "chasing a loss") you will only fall further down the rabbit hole of bad bankroll management. We don't need to adjust our units, we just need to get back into the books and prepare to attack another weekend.
So here we go:
PREMIER LEAGUE (ENGLAND)
Spread - Chelsea vs. Burnley: Burnley +1.5 @ +100
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. (EDT)
Burnley have had a decent opening to their Premier League return, playing well in a 0-1 loss to Swansea and then handling Liverpool at home in Week 2. Going on the road to face Chelsea will be a much tougher task, but this is a better defensive team than the general public would like to give credit to. You'd have to go back to before Christmas 2015 to find the last time Burnley lost by more than the 1.5 goals being spotted to them, and that was to fellow-promotee Hull City. In fact, between that loss and their opening loss to Swansea, they have not lost in league play; only Arsenal managed to defeat them in an FA Cup match. On the other side, Chelsea are back to their winning ways and surely expected to win this match, however, they aren't blowing opponents out of the water. In the last half of last season, they only managed to beat since-relegated Aston Villa and Newcastle, as well as Bournemouth, by the requisite 1.5 goals. Burnley's defense and goaltending are too strong to spot them this many goals, even at Stamford Bridge.
Total - Leicester City vs. Swansea: Over 2.5 @ +115
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. (EDT)
The one thing that Swansea and Leicester have in common in the infancy of this season is that they have both been beaten by the surprising Hull City. If you predicted that Hull City would open with all six points, teach me about handicapping soccer; but moving on! We knew Leicester wouldn't be able to sneak up on the league guerilla-style like they did last season, but this start has been nothing short of a disaster and they need to send a message right now against Swansea or risk falling out of the race before the calendar turns to September. Swansea, on the other hand, are a tough road opponent. They filled the net in their pre-season schedule, especially as the road team, where they scored 16 goals in four games against decent opposition. They ended last season with a streak of seven consecutive overs as the road team, and they currently have all three possible road points with their win over Burnley. Historically, their last two Premier League meetings have gone over, and the last five times Leicester have hosted Swansea the over hit.
LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)
Moneyline - Metz vs. Angers: Metz @ +145
Saturday, 2:00 p.m. (EDT)
With how tight the lines were the past two weeks in Ligue 1 (and given how tight the rest of this week's lines are) I am a bit surprised to see such little faith in Metz in this spot. Granted, this isn't a match the books will get hammered too hard on, but I am in love with Metz this week, and getting them at plus money is too good to be true. In fact, I have Metz rated as my team most likely to get a win this week. They opened with a strong win over Lille, and nobody can fault them for a 3-0 loss in Paris. Now that that's out of the way, they can return home to get a shot at an Angers club that has yet to record a point or find the net through two weeks. As a club, they are floating in a sea of nothingness that has them down in the danger zone early and won't be able to challenge a Metz club that is stronger than its early table position indicates.
Total - Unfortunately, I will again be passing on totals in Ligue 1 this week as the lines are simply too strong; oddsmakers know what they are doing and we need to pick our battles. I have leans on Marseille and Dijon to hit the over, as well as Nice and Metz to hit the under, but the totals are set incorrectly or the prices are not conducive enough to place bets with the required confidence.
SERIE A (ITALY)
Moneyline - Sampdoria vs. Atalanta: Sampdoria @ +110
Sunday, 2:45 p.m. (EDT)
Sampdoria were one of only three teams to win on the road in Week 1, while Atalanta were one of those three teams that suffered a home loss to open the season. These two clubs will switch roles in a matchup that historically has favored the home team; these two have met 17 times in Serie A since 2005 with the home team taking 11. Again, this is one of those scenarios where it is less about my confidence in the home team to come out and dominate than it is about my confidence in a poor effort from the visiting team. Atalanta were a mess defensively against Lazio in their opening match, and that is a hole that they won't be able to climb out of against Sampdoria.
Total - Napoli vs. AC Milan: Over 2.5 @ -140
Saturday, 2:45 p.m. (EDT)
If you are interested in the last time a Napoli home match featured fewer than 2.5 goals, it was February. Let's just get that out of the way. In fact, five of seven matches between these two clubs going back to 2012 resulted in the total going over, and recently Milan started the season explosively with a Carlos Bacca hat trick in a 3-2 win. Unfortunately, the oddsmakers have beaten us to the punch on this call by hanging a lot of juice on this line, but at -140 that should not be enough to scare us off. Paying up for a line is not necessarily a bad thing, it just requires an additional amount of confidence that we sure have on this bet.
MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER (UNITED STATES)
Moneyline - Columbus vs. San Jose: Draw @ +245
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. (EDT)
Because we use a three way money line in soccer rather than a spread (in most cases), the draw has the potential to bite us more than in any other sport. However, learning how to be the draw is a tool that even the most savvy sports investors have yet to master, and it's for one simple reason: it is hard to embrace the unknown. I will probably write about this more in depth in a future article, but essentially all we are trying to do is beat the odds set by our sportsbook. By assigning a line of +245 on these two teams to draw, the book is essentially saying they believe this outcome will occur around 29 percent of the time. When I see a match that gives a 50 percent chance or better of drawing, I always jump on it because we have almost twice as much confidence in this outcome as the bookie. Does that make sense? I hope so, because draw bets are a great way to improve ROI in the long run. Sorry, I haven't talked much about this match: the long and short of it is that this is a bad soccer club hosting a team that doesn't concede much on the road. The phrase 'dull as dishwater' was coined specifically for this match, and expect a 0-0 or 1-1 result.
Total - LA Galaxy vs. Vancouver Whitecaps: Under 2.5 @ +100
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. (EDT)
This is one of my favorite plays of the day and I am still a bit shocked at the price we are getting on this selection. More credit is being given to Los Angeles being towards the top of the table and Vancouver being towards the bottom than the actual expected total of goals in this match. Let's not forget it was only two weeks ago that Los Angeles was THE top of the table, and they have been in a tailspin since then. Well that's a bit harsh, but clearly they are having trouble winning and all of that stems from a strange inability to score goals in the past few matches. The loss to FC Dallas in the U.S. Open Cup may have been heartbreaking enough to stall them out for a few weeks. Vancouver, on the other hand, I don't even know where to begin. They lost to Sporting KC in league play and then promptly came back to stomp them in CONCACAF play, but their MLS results are so poor. Over their last five games (four losses, one point) they have scored just once. This match has the potential to be poor, but the Galaxy should take an easy 1-0 or 2-0 win here and stay under.
Contrary to what it may seem by this series debuting at the same time as the "major" European soccer season, I don't usually like to cap matches at the very beginning of the season and that is why I am going to hang back on German Bundesliga picks for a short while. I need to see how this season begins to shake out before I put my money (and yours!) at stake. However, please enjoy a few samplings from the rest of the globe this weekend:
Eredivise (Netherlands)
Willem II vs. Roda JC: Over 2.5 @ -115
Super Lig (Turkey)
Gaziantepspor vs. Trabzonspor: Under 2.5 @ -120
Championship (England)
Burton Albion vs. Derby County: Derby @ +120
Tippeligaen (Norway)
Sogndal vs. Stabaek: Stabaek or draw (double chance) @ -140
