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The first season of Thomas' eight-year deal saw him produce 18 goals and 47 assists over 73 games. While it's solid work, it's a bit below the 77-point campaign in 2021-22 that earned him the max-length deal in the first place. One thing is clear now -- with Ryan O'Reilly out of the picture, Thomas is the clear No. 1 center in St. Louis, likely for the remainder of the decade. His profile -- a non-physical, pass-first pivot -- can be frustrating for fantasy managers chasing goals, but he should continue to be efficient when he does shoot while also seeing a substantial power-play role. For the upcoming season, Thomas should be regarded as a borderline No. 2 fantasy center depending on format.
You can count on one hand the number of NHL players who broke out to the extent Thomas did a season ago. Playing the entire year at age 22, Thomas finished with 20 goals and 77 points in 72 games. It's nitpicking considering how well he played, but Thomas needs to shoot the puck more. He's more of a playmaker than finisher, but 115 shots on goal isn't going to get the job done in the long run. Clearly impressed with what they saw, the Blues handed Thomas a massive eight-year, $65 million contract in July. It locks him into a major role with the club for the rest of the decade, making Thomas a worthy addition in the middle rounds of all fantasy formats this fall.
Thomas gets a pass for his poor performance in 2020-21 (three goals, 12 points) because shoulder and thumb injuries limited him to just 33 games. He averaged a career-high 1:28 of ice time per game with the man advantage, but somehow didn't manage to post a single power-play point. What's most concerning of all is how little offensive pressure Thomas generated. He posted just 22 shots on goal all season. Thomas is theoretically a bounce-back candidate given the fact he's fully healthy and will play the entire 2021-22 campaign at age 22, but there's nothing in Thomas' background that suggests a breakout is coming. Toss in the fact St. Louis added top-six forwards Pavel Buchnevich and Brandon Saad this offseason and Thomas is looking at a depth role this year, and as a result, limited fantasy value.
Thomas improved from his rookie season in 2019-20, if only marginally, but it still only scratches the surface of what he can do. He scored 10 goals and 42 points on a team where it was difficult to crack the top two lines, and the 2020-21 season definitely hints at bigger things. Thomas' versatility allows him to move up and down the lineup with relative ease, sometimes to the first line, and he's currently one of the best young players in the league, ranking fifth with 75 points among players drafted in 2017 or later. His point production will improve if he can move up the depth chart on a veteran Blues squad, but also if he can get more playing time on the first power-play unit. If Thomas falls into the later rounds, fantasy managers should be intrigued by his upside.
It took some time for Thomas to get used to the NHL game, but it's official now that he's here to stay. The 20-year-old finished his rookie campaign with 33 points in 72 games, and his production was even better down the stretch with 19 points over the final 30 contests. There were times during the postseason that Thomas looked like the best player on the ice, as his speed opens up space for his teammates while his vision helps develop plays out of seemingly nothing. Thomas could become a star in this league, and with top-six duties on tap, it would be surprising if he didn't ring up 50 points this year.
A speedy center is what the Blues were missing in a turbulent 2017-18 campaign that fell short of the playoffs. Thomas has uncanny agility and an elite hockey sense, which triggered the Blues to select him No. 20 overall in the 2017 NHL Draft. The touted prospect spent last season in the OHL, racking up 24 goals and 75 points in 49 games, helping to win the league's championship while reeling in playoff MVP honors. He also mustered six points in seven games for Team Canada in the 2018 IIHF World Championships. There's nothing left for the 19-year-old Thomas to accomplish in Canadian juniors but he's still too young for the AHL, so St. Louis is expected to bring him up to the big club. GM Doug Armstrong wants to ease Thomas into action, so he'll likely start the season on the fourth line with special teams duties. However, Armstrong also added that if Thomas picks up the flow quickly, he could center the top line with Ryan O'Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko by the new year. Such a testament gives the pivot huge upside if he can make the leap.