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Tierney had a career-low 19 points in 55 games last season -- a scoring output that can partly be blamed on the shortened season and a poor supporting cast on a rebuilding Senators team. Only one of those flaws is expected to be resolved in 2021-22, although Tierney has shown the potential to be part of the solution with the Senators. He logged point totals of 40, 48 and 37 in the three years prior to last campaign's dud. With Josh Norris and Shane Pinto likely to get long looks as the top two centers in Ottawa, Tierney may begin the year in a third-line role. The 27-year-old should still get a reasonable middle-six workload as one of the more veteran forwards on the team, although fantasy managers may want to wait and see how he starts the year.
On a better team than the Senators, Tierney wouldn't get the same chances. He's never scored more than 48 points in a season, and he's potted more shorthanded goals than power-play goals over the course of his career. He'll still likely slot into a second-line role in 2020-21, but power-play opportunities will be hard to come by. Tierney can be left undrafted in all but the deepest of fantasy formats.
While he recorded a career-high 39 assists in 2018-19, Tierney's first season with Ottawa was a bit of a disappointment from a goal-scoring perspective. The 25-year-old only potted nine goals while recording a minus-22 rating in 81 games last campaign. In comparison, with the Sharks in 2017-18, the 2012 second-round pick had 17 goals and 40 points in 82 contests. However, the good news is Tierney's scoring dropoff can almost entirely be attributed to the nearly seven point decrease in shooting percentage he experienced from 2017-18 to 2018-19. Assuming his conversion rate regresses to the mean, Tierney should approach the 15-goal mark in 2019-20, and potentially surpass the 50-point threshold for the first time in his career.
Tierney had a breakout season in 2017-18, setting career highs in goals (17), assists (23), and shots on goal (118) while averaging 16:00 of ice time in 82 contests. The 24-year-old pivot proved he's more than just a role player, and he was initially rewarded for his efforts, signing a two-year, $5.875 million contract with the Sharks this offseason before being packaged off to Ottawa as part of the Erik Karlsson deal. If Tierney gets opportunities with Ottawa's power-play unit, he could threaten the 20-goal mark and the 50-point threshold in 2018-19.
A role player primarily deployed in shorthanded situations, Tierney requires optimal offensive efficiency in order to captivate fantasy audiences. However, the shifty bottom-six pivot is on the upswing, having reached career highs in goals (11) and points (23) last season. The 23-year-old will remain in the Bay Area after penning a one-year, $735,000 contract extension as a restricted free agent in July. While he could be motivated for a more lucrative deal next summer, be weary of spotty production as Tierney embarks on his fourth NHL campaign.
After a solid rookie campaign that saw Tierney put up 21 points in 43 games, his scoring pace was cut in half last season when he managed just 20 points – and an ugly minus-16 rating – in 79 games. The 22-year-old was a little better come playoff time in producing at a clip of 0.38 points per game, but he’ll need to show a lot more to be more than just a blip on the fantasy radar when the Sharks open up the season in defense of their Western Conference title. Tierney definitely has the pedigree to do just that, as evidenced by his 40 goals and 49 assists across 67 games in his final season with OHL London and 29 points in his first 29 games with AHL Worcester, so be sure to keep a close eye on him in both daily and season-long formats.
Tierney heads to the AHL after spending four seasons with the pro-like London Knights of the OHL. Last season was particuarly impressive for the overager -- he racked up 40 goals and 49 assists, with just 12 penalty minutes, through 67 games. He has good size at 6-1, though he needs to add some weight. He's probably a top-nine guy in the NHL -- overage numbers in the OHL are always deceiving (remember, some of his opposition is only 17). Wait for his name to appear consistently in a line score before considering him for your roster.