Tuesday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

I've made another small change to the magnitude of my Rating System, which has an average 49.0 Rating per game. The represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, like Corsi, but it also adjusted for Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 56.8 (CAR) to a worst of 44.2 (ANH), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 44.1 (CAR) to a worst of 55.4 (OTT) – these numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player callups. I am hoping these values will more clearly show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game, whether those are on goal, off target, or blocked shots – they are still offensive chances for/or against.

Slate Preview: Tuesday, November 6, 2018

There are nine games on the Main Slate, and it seems like there is more value Tuesday than there is on a normal slate as there is not a clear-cut dominant line on the board Tuesday; it may be a good day to use a value line stack and use some mix-and-match expensive pieces. The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, than means they are not on either power-play line)

NJ1 at OTT: Taylor Hall-1 ($7,600 FD, $7,600 DK), Kyle Palmieri-1 ($6,400 FD, $7,200 DK), Nico Hischier-1 ($6,200 FD, $6,000 DK) - The Devils have slowed down following a torrid start so NJ1 should be under-owned Tuesday night even though they face the league-worst defense as they visit Ottawa (55.4 DR). Getting NJ1 at a low ownership should make them an intriguing option since I think the line has the best chance in the league at a three-goal performance Tuesday.

TB1 vs. EDM: Nikita Kucherov-1 ($7,900 FD, $6,800 DK), Steven Stamkos-1 ($7,800 FD, $6,600 DK), J.T. Miller-1 ($4,800 FD, $4,400 DK)
TB2 vs. EDM: Brayden Point-2 ($6,800 FD, $6,900 DK), Yanni Gourde-2 ($5,600 FD, $6,400 DK), Tyler Johnson-2 ($5,600 FD, $5,900 DK) - Tampa has two of the more talented lines in the game, picking the right one on a nightly basis is a tough task. I would lean towards TB2 on the road and TB1 at home due to the last matchups of the home team, so top TB1 would be my lean Tuesday against a poor defensive Edmonton team (50.1 DR) off a tough back-to-back at Washington. The power-play coordination with the current alignment is nice as well, with the TB1 all playing on the first power-play unit and the entire TB2 line on the second unit.

STL1 vs. CAR: Vladimir Tarasenko-1 ($7,800 FD, $7,300 DK), Ryan O'Reilly-1 ($6,300 FD, $6,300 DK), Jaden Schwartz-2 ($5,300 FD, $5,100 DK) - On paper, Carolina should be the most dominant team in the league (#1 OR and #1 DR), but they are a sloppy team who fires poor shots (7.9 S%, second-worst in the league), and have horrible goaltending (.886 SV%, third-worst in the league). St. Louis is another tough team to peg offensive with three solid lines, but I am going with the top line at home Tuesday, you can cut Jaden Schwartz and use that spot for another player, but the Tarasenko/O'Reilly duo is one that should be in a favorable spot.

Also in play: NYR1 vs. MON, SJ2 vs. MIN

VALUE LINE STACKS

VGK2 at TOR: Max Pacioretty-1 ($5,700 FD, $4,500 DK), Erik Haula-2 ($4,900 FD, $4,300 DK), Alex Tuch-2 ($4,800 FD, $6,100 DK) - Max Pacioretty appears to be returning Tuesday night and he will be joining one of the hotter value duos in the league. Since returning from his own injury, Tuch has recorded three goals and two assists in six games with 28 shots on goal; Haula has reaped rewards from Tuch's return as well to the tune of a goal plus five assists in those six games. A matchup against the poor defense of Toronto (50.7 DR), plus the likelihood of seeing the secondary defensive units of the Maple Leafs, makes VGK2 an intriguing option Tuesday. Even if Pacioretty does not return Tuesday, the Tuch/Haula combo is still in play.

DET1 vs. VAN: Dylan Larkin-1 ($6,600 FD, $6,800 DK), Anthony Mantha-1 ($4,100 FD, $4,500 DK), Darren Helm-0 ($3,500 FD, $3,800 DK) - Larkin continues to build on his "Best Young Players in the League" resume, with two goals and six assists in the past four games, he centers the top line and top power play, and has been a dynamo shorthanded as well, with a two goals and an assist already this year on the penalty kill. Anthony Mantha is along for the ride and is a good option for the price getting top power-play duties as well. Darren Helm can be overlooked and replaced with a better option. A matchup against the Canucks subpar defense (49.7 DR) makes the Red Wings a good play at home Tuesday.

CAR1 at STL: Sebastian Aho-1 ($6,800 FD, $6,700 DK), Micheal Ferland-1 ($5,800 FD, $6,600 DK), Teuvo Teravainen-1 ($5,500 FD, $5,400 DK)
CAR2 at STL: Jordan Staal-2 ($5,000 FD, $4,900 DK), Justin Williams-1 ($5,000 FD, $4,600 DK), Warren Foegele-0 ($3,600 FD, $3,100 DK) - I mentioned the struggles of Carolina's offense in the STL1 write-up, but the struggles of St. Louis's goaltending (3.94 GAA, .878 SV%) may be the cure for the Hurricanes. Some of those sloppy shots are going to beat Chad Johnson, and the switch back to the previous line organization for Carolina leads me to lean towards CAR2 for the better matchups, as they'll likely avoid seeing Jaden Schwartz (42.3 DR) and Ryan O'Reilly (45.0 DR). CAR1 offers more power-play correlation, however.

Also in play: OTT1 vs. NJ

Solo Forward Options

Elias Pettersson-1 VAN1 at DET ($6,200 FD, $7,100 DK) – It's impossible that he continues at this pace (nine goals, six assists in nine games, 39.1 S%), but it's clear he is not just the best rookie in the league, he's among the elite talents in the league…and he's 19 years old.

Brian Boyle-1 NJ4 at OTT ($3,400 FD, $3,300 DK) – Boyle always shows up near the top of my value formula, but I never use him, maybe I should've considered him yesterday for his Hat Trick. Chasing stats is not usually a good play, but the matchup warrants some consideration here as a punt play.

Brendan Gallagher-1 MON1 at NYR ($6,700 FD, $6,900 DK) – His price tag is creeping upwards, but it is still in a good range to use as a solo forward spot, four goals and 17 shots on goal in last five games.

Evander Kane-2 SJ1 vs. MIN ($6,400 FD, $5,800 DK) – Kane is a shooting machine, 16 SOG over the past two games, while his shooting percentage isn't up to par with his career average (6.7% vs. 9.0%) he's now back on the top line playing with Joe Pavelski, so the goals should follow sooner or later.

Zach Sanford-0 STL3 vs. CAR ($3,800 FD, $4,300 DK) – Sanford has played well after missing the first few games of the year recovering from an injury (three goals and four assists in seven games). A favorable matchup against Carolina, plus a solid line pairing with Tyler Bozak and Alex Steen, makes Sanford a solid value on both sites.

Defensemen

(Due to extreme pricing differentials between the sites, a single list will be provided for defensemen moving forward)

Ryan McDonagh-1 TB vs. EDM ($5,200 FD, $6,100 DK) – McDonagh has capitalized on the absence of Victor Hedman, recording a goal, five assists and 17 shots on goal in the past four games. He provides a great pairing with either TB forward stack.

Thomas Chabot-1 OTT vs. NJ ($4,600 FD, $6,000 DK) – FanDuel only play. Chabot has recorded at least one point in 12 of 14 games this season; with top power-play duties and a home game against a New Jersey team that has struggled defensive recently, there is no reason he should only be $4,600 on FanDuel.

Mike Green-1 DET vs. VAN ($4,600 FD, $4,800 DK) – Green provides solid production (three assists in four games) with upside at a reasonable price tag, while having top power-play duties and a great matchup at home against Vancouver.

Vince Dunn-1 STL vs. CAR ($4,000 FD, $5,400 DK) – Dunn was a guy I didn't believe would take the next step headed into the year, but I will admit I was wrong and have jumped on board. Top power play duties at 22 years old is nothing to overlook, and he has backed it up with three goals and four assists in 10 games.

Joel Edmundson-0 STL vs. CAR ($3,900 FD, $4,200 DK) – This is a stat play, Edmundson is a shot-blocking wizard (2.6 per game this year), and the aforementioned Carolina team fires any shot they can, no matter the situation. If Edmondson can sneak in an assist, he could have a big game with 5+ blocks and a shot or two.

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

John Gibson ANH at LA ($8,600 FD, $8,300 DK) / Ryan Miller ANH at LA ($7,800 FD, $8,100 DK) – Anaheim and Los Angeles play a home-and-home back-to-back Tuesday and Wednesday, so it's likely that Gibson and Miller will each draw a start the next two nights, but it may be after the initial deadline that the starter for Tuesday is announced. That being the case, I don't really care who starts, they are my favorite starter of the day. This game is currently the lowest total on the board, and even though the Kings struggle to put shots on and in the net (26th in the league in shots on goal, last in goals per game), the Ducks struggle to stop teams from shooting (2nd most in the league) but allow the sixth-fewest goals per game – all combined this leads to a decent save total, with a low number of goals allowed for the Ducks goaltender, whoever it may be.

Andrei Vasilevskiy TB vs. EDM ($9,400 FD, $8,200 DK) – Edmonton is a middle of the road offensive team (19th in goals per game, 16th in shots on goal per game), and they will be coming off a back-to-back at Washington on Monday (4-2 loss). This is about as difficult as a back-to-back as you can get in the NHL, so I think having one of the better goaltenders in the league on home ice, against a tired team, should be a good option Tuesday.

Jimmy Howard DET vs. VAN ($7,700 FD, $7,000 DK) – There are not many value plays on the board at goalie Tuesday, and while Elias Pettersson is an elite level talent for Vancouver, they do not have many other weapons if Brock Boeser is out (day-to-day with groin injury). Howard has played fairly well recently with a 2.51 GAA and a .929 SV% over the past six games, so I think he offers some of the better value on the board tonight, especially on DraftKings.