This article is part of our The One-Timer series.
The holiday season incorporates a wide range of emotions. The joy of spending time with family. The anxiety of spending time with family. The relief felt after finishing spending time with family.
As the calendar is flipped to 2018, there's the tendency to list individual highlights and project future achievements. We talk about what could've been done differently or how things might've been worse. The analysis may look complex, but the basic concept revolves around keeping score.
In fantasy hockey, a few players showed enough promise that will allow them to continue their excellence over the final few months. Unfortunately, a few overachievers will experience some type of drop-off, either due to past experience, age, a change in situation or a collective setback.
Let's look at a few players who have been faring well but won't be able to keep it going the rest of the way…
NOTE: We'll cap the selections at one per NHL club and avoid those who are currently injured.
Dustin Brown, F, Los Angeles
Brown's offensive production dropped off considerably the last four seasons (from 29 points in 46 games in 2012-13 to nothing higher than 36 in 80 in 2016-17), although he served as an important component due to his strong leadership skills. Coinciding with the Kings' resurgence in the standings, the club captain has returned to old form with 13 goals and 16 assists in 37 contests. Even though Brown has been skating on the top even-strength and power-play unit with Anze
The holiday season incorporates a wide range of emotions. The joy of spending time with family. The anxiety of spending time with family. The relief felt after finishing spending time with family.
As the calendar is flipped to 2018, there's the tendency to list individual highlights and project future achievements. We talk about what could've been done differently or how things might've been worse. The analysis may look complex, but the basic concept revolves around keeping score.
In fantasy hockey, a few players showed enough promise that will allow them to continue their excellence over the final few months. Unfortunately, a few overachievers will experience some type of drop-off, either due to past experience, age, a change in situation or a collective setback.
Let's look at a few players who have been faring well but won't be able to keep it going the rest of the way…
NOTE: We'll cap the selections at one per NHL club and avoid those who are currently injured.
Dustin Brown, F, Los Angeles
Brown's offensive production dropped off considerably the last four seasons (from 29 points in 46 games in 2012-13 to nothing higher than 36 in 80 in 2016-17), although he served as an important component due to his strong leadership skills. Coinciding with the Kings' resurgence in the standings, the club captain has returned to old form with 13 goals and 16 assists in 37 contests. Even though Brown has been skating on the top even-strength and power-play unit with Anze Kopitar, one can't expect him to prolong this pace over an entire schedule. And L.A. has slipped a bit by losing four of its last six, so there's no guarantee Brown will remain on the same line in the weeks to come.
Mattias Ekholm, D, Nashville
While his initial NHL returns weren't spectacular (27 points in his first 145 appearances), Ekholm has developed into a full-time member of the Preds' D core. And thanks to an increase in responsibility, he peaked with 35 points two years ago and supplemented that with 23 last season while adding 11 more in Nashville's extended playoff run. The 27-year old is set to shatter those marks this season, notching six goals and 15 assists – with 10 of these points coming on the power play. However, the hype for Ekholm may be diminished in the coming weeks, as Ryan Ellis is slated to return in the New Year and will eventually eat up most – if not, all – of the Swede's man-advantage minutes.
Michael Grabner, F, NY Rangers
Grabner burst onto the scene in 2010-11 as a rookie with 34 goals for the Islanders and finished third in Calder Trophy voting, but the bulk of his cross-continent tour never amounted to much. It's not until the Austrian winger moved to Broadway two years ago when things started to click again. His 2016-17 point total of 40 may not be exciting but becomes impressive when you consider 27 of them were goals, and that he was able to do this skating primarily on the third line. Grabner remains a third-unit fixture (averaging 14:12 a night) and is tied for seventh in the league with 17 goals, but he's probably the only one in the top-30 who sees very little to no power-play duty. Even though he may be comfortable with his place on the depth chart, it's tough to recommend someone for consistent value who is losing out on prime scoring minutes.
William Karlsson, F, Vegas
There could've been an entire section devoted solely to Golden Knights players based on the prevailing expectation that their unbelievable franchise start will eventually crumble, but the limit says one per organization, so Karlsson has been selected as the offering for overachievement. Other than a partial season of AHL success (24 points in 37 games with Norfolk), there's been little evidence to suggest the 24-year old's current breakout. While Karlsson leads the team in forward ice time (18:32) and sits second in goals (16) and plus-minus (plus-11), there's little chance he can hold up his 22.5 shooting percentage. And even with Vegas pouring in the goals (third in the league with an average of 3.45 per contest), it's hard imagining Karlsson – at 28 points – will be able to top 60.
Tyler Myers, D, Winnipeg
Injuries have recently plagued the 6-foot-8 blueliner, but he has bounced back in fine form. The five goals and 14 assists are nice, but the 11 power-play points really make Myers a valuable commodity. He's been able to produce during the absence of Dustin Byfuglien by notching five assists in seven outings, but it wasn't as if he was struggling before. On top of the question regarding Myers' long-term durability, there's the short-term drawback where Jacob Trouba has leapfrogged him to replace Byfuglien as the top man-advantage quarterback. While Trouba hasn't exactly set the fantasy world on fire with two assists during the same span, he's still earning more opportunities than Myers.
Thomas Vanek, F, Vancouver
Since leaving Buffalo in 2013, the former fifth overall pick has experienced a boost in almost every new location. This campaign with the Canucks has been no different, although a couple hiccups have arisen along the way. After a strong stretch in November where he tallied eight points in as many games, Vanek fell off the mark with a single goal in nine and only returned to relevance with a hat trick last Tuesday. The veteran will face competition from Sven Baertschi when he returns in January, as the latter will probably reclaim his place as the No. 2 left winger. And if Vancouver continues to fall further behind in the standings, Vanek may lose further ice time to stud prospect Nikolay Goldobin.
Semyon Varlamov, G, Colorado
Like Vegas, not much was expected from Colorado coming into the season due to a young squad and the impending departure of Matt Duchene. Even though the Avs occupy the bottom position in the Central Division, they continue to surprise by maintaining a winning record. All the youth throughout the lineup has apparently rejuvenated Varlamov (12 wins), even though his other numbers (2.93 GAA, .910 save percentage) place him in the bottom half of the league. Jonathan Bernier (3.29 GAA, .893 save percentage) has performed poorly as a backup, so there's no real threat of him usurping the incumbent for the top spot between the pipes. But as is the case with the NHL's newest franchise, many are waiting for Colorado's inevitable downturn – and that means Varlamov is set to endure a number of tough starts from here on out.
(Dishonorable mention: Aaron Dell, G, San Jose; Ron Hainsey, D, Toronto; Alex Killorn, F, Tampa Bay; Josh Manson, D, Anaheim; Andrew Shaw, F, Montreal; Paul Stastny, F, St. Louis; Miles Wood, F, New Jersey)
