Some food for thought after another week of fantasy hockey ...
154
That's John Marino's draft position in the 2015 entry draft, selected in the sixth round by Peter Chiarelli in his first draft with the Oilers. The Massachusetts native spent three years at Hahvahhhd before spurning the Oilers to sign with the Penguins, and with injuries to Kris Letang (since returned) and Justin Schultz, has moved seamlessly into a top-four role. It's a pretty impressive jump. Although always known to be a strong skater, Marino drew little fanfare as a competent but unexciting two-way D and scored just 42 career points with the Crimson — six less than what teammate Adam Fox scored in his junior season — but now has seven points in 10 games in November, the same as Erik Karlsson, and ranks fourth among Oilers defensemen in ice time per game (20:48). Some franchises just seem blessed; a team that was dumb enough to give $16 million to Jack Johnson and trade for Erik Gudbranson got a potential top-four defenseman for pennies on the dollar.
88
That's Brady Tkachuk's shot total this season, eighth most in the league this season, after finishing 57th last season. Although Brady and Matthew Tkachuk's production through the first season and a half of their careers have been similar (roughly 60 points through their first 100 games), Brady's the far more prolific shooter, and at this pace would finish with 313 shots this season. Only seven
Some food for thought after another week of fantasy hockey ...
154
That's John Marino's draft position in the 2015 entry draft, selected in the sixth round by Peter Chiarelli in his first draft with the Oilers. The Massachusetts native spent three years at Hahvahhhd before spurning the Oilers to sign with the Penguins, and with injuries to Kris Letang (since returned) and Justin Schultz, has moved seamlessly into a top-four role. It's a pretty impressive jump. Although always known to be a strong skater, Marino drew little fanfare as a competent but unexciting two-way D and scored just 42 career points with the Crimson — six less than what teammate Adam Fox scored in his junior season — but now has seven points in 10 games in November, the same as Erik Karlsson, and ranks fourth among Oilers defensemen in ice time per game (20:48). Some franchises just seem blessed; a team that was dumb enough to give $16 million to Jack Johnson and trade for Erik Gudbranson got a potential top-four defenseman for pennies on the dollar.
88
That's Brady Tkachuk's shot total this season, eighth most in the league this season, after finishing 57th last season. Although Brady and Matthew Tkachuk's production through the first season and a half of their careers have been similar (roughly 60 points through their first 100 games), Brady's the far more prolific shooter, and at this pace would finish with 313 shots this season. Only seven players cracked 300 last season, so if Brady manages to accomplish this, he's in pretty elite company. The Senators aren't nearly as bad as everyone thought they'd be, which tells us a lot about our predictive powers but can only be good for Tkachuk's stock. In fantasy terms, especially with the Flames slumping, we should be talking about how much more valuable younger brother Brady has become.
71.63
That's the percentage of starts Torey Krug gets in the offensive zone, first in the league among defensemen with 100 minutes played, according to Natural Stat Trick. It's not surprising but the increase is significant; last season, Krug started in the offensive zone 66.55 percent of the time, representing an eight percent increase. Krug is in his contract year and getting deployed as an offensive specialist, as he should be; his 12 power-play points ranks second among all defensemen (one behind Quinn Hughes), and he's on pace to record his first ever 70-point season and shatter his career high of 59 points, when he shot 7.1 percent (same as now) and scored 14 goals (on pace for it).
62.93
That's Nic Petan's Corsi For % at 5-on-5, seventh best in the league, according to Natural Stat Trick … which I almost missed because I had a filter set to a minimum of 100 minutes played. Petan falls 35 seconds — basically one shift — short of 100, but the sample size is big enough to start thinking about buying. Petan sat on Saturday against Colorado in favor of Denver native and DU product Nick Shore, but if Sheldon Keefe is Kyle Dubas' guy, then Dubas' guy must believe in analytics — at least more than Mike Babcock. Petan's .949 PDO also suggests he's getting really unlucky, but one thing to keep an eye on is where Petan's scoring chances come from. He generates a lot of his chances off the rush despite starting most of the time in the defensive zone (68.6 percent, according to hockey-reference), but he's mostly still a perimeter player despite being first in Shots/60 and Rebounds Created/60 on the team, according to Natural Stat Trick. Petan has only two assists in 10 games, but if his usage changes under Keefe his offensive production should climb.
-20
That's the combined plus-minus of Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm last week, with just a goal and two assists to show for it. If we concede that the Flames won't be disbanding their young core, is there an internal solution? The trio had good possession numbers (54.47 CF%, 53.26 FF%) last season, and that hasn't changed this season (52.53 CF%, 52.53 FF%) even with more offensive-zone starts (3.25 percent difference), but the difference in PDO is a little alarming (1.023 vs. 0.964). They are, however, allowing more high-danger chances than last season, and the tendency for skill players struggling on offense is to cheat and exit the zone a little early in the hopes of a rush or breakaway, but it's a bad strategy if the goal is to get the puck out. The Flames are fourth-worst in Corsi Against and second-worst in Fenwick Against, according to Natural Stat Trick, and if they can tighten up defensively, perhaps their top line will find it easier to get going. We continue to wait and be patient while the Flames sort out their situation, but time is working against them.
14
That's the number of offensive zone starts Tyson Barrie has been given under Keefe in two games (77.78 percent), compared to just 86 in 23 games (60.99 percent) under Babcock. It's a small sample size, but the trend is definitely there, especially if Keefe is more analytically inclined. Dubas has tried to build the Leafs into a skill-heavy team after unloading Babcock favorites Nikita Zaitsev and Ron Hainsey, but with stories about internal turmoil coming to light, it's not a stretch to think Babcock refused to deploy Barrie in situations the way Dubas envisioned. Remember that despite Barrie's proven power-play prowess, Babcock still elected to go with a one-defenseman set-up on the first unit and deploy Morgan Rielly instead, even though Barrie, a right-hand shot, is a more natural set-up man for lefties Auston Matthews and John Tavares. It's a classic tug-of-war between GM and coach, where two approaches differ and the roster is stuck in neutral, unable to hit overdrive because not all of the parts are working together. Barrie's a strong buy and hold candidate under Keefe, and perhaps with continued on-ice success, Barrie might change his mind and stay in Toronto — at least for this season — after all.
1.00
That's Antti Raanta's GAA last week, allowing just two goals on 76 shots, including one 31-save shutout, and won both of his games, both of which came against the Kings. That improves Raanta's record to 5-2-2 this season with a .926 save percentage in his quest to regain the starting job after being hurt to start the season. Acquiring him cost the Coyotes a top-10 pick and Anthony DeAngelo, who now runs the Rangers PP, so Raanta was always seen as the future starter, but Darcy Kuemper, who was acquired for a minor-league goalie and Oilers killer Tobias Rieder, has thrown a wrench into those plans. Coach Rick Tocchet is on a strict timeshare with Raanta and Kuemper alternating starts for nearly the entire month, making Raanta and Kuemper an ideal handcuff and one that's Jennings-worthy.
