There's some things hockey fans just seem to get used to for October. Certain teams starting hot or cold, early injuries, higher scoring. Most of the time, those things normalize some time in November -- a couple of teams and a handful of players will always surprise us, but most are known quantities going into the year.
The Sabres are often right at the top of the list for hot starts that fade away quickly. It's no different this year, as they're 4-1-0 despite playing just one truly bad team so far. There's a lot to like in their game, but it's started from the back so far. Rasmus Dahlin is enjoying a historic start to the year and looks well on his way to a breakout campaign. Owen Power has done alright, though he's not showing up in the scoring quite yet. Casey Mittelstadt is also doing a good job and appears to be ready to be the second-line center. He's picked up five points (three on the power play) and 10 shots on goal through five contests.
Above all, the success of Eric Comrie has stood out to me. He drew the toughest assignments in goal over the first two weeks -- home versus the Panthers, then on the road versus both Alberta teams. The results? A .930 save percentage (119 saves on 128 shots) and two road wins. He stopped 40 shots against the Flames and a stunning 46 against the Oilers -- maybe being back in his home province motivated him. He's been a career backup so far, though he drew into 19 games with a 10-5-1 record, 2.58 GAA and .920 save percentage last year.
To his credit, Craig Anderson has looked good with two wins and just two goals allowed on 66 shots in his games, though they were against the Senators and the Canucks. Between Comrie and Anderson, the Sabres' crease appears to be in good hands. If I've only got room for one, I'm picking up Comrie right now. Anderson's age and the associated injury risk concerns me. As successful as the team's offense is, they're still leaking shots at an alarming rate, which isn't a recipe for long-term success. In particularly deep leagues or ones where you can stash minor-leaguers, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen seems like a solid emergency depth option.
Another trend, and this time on the negative side, is how bad the Canucks have been to start the year. A year ago, an ugly start that lasted into December eventually got Travis Green fired and Bruce Boudreau in his place as head coach, but now even Boudreau has been unable to pull the strings the right way to begin 2022-23. Thatcher Demko, who I was all-in on entering the year, has an .858 save percentage through five games. The ugliness has seen Conor Garland get scratched and Tanner Pearson's ice time crumble. Nils Hoglander was briefly jettisoned to the AHL for help on a battered blue line. On paper, this team has a weak defense, but the talent assembled in the top six should be able to make up for that. To that end, Elias Pettersson and Bo Horvat have looked good, but the rest of the team is lagging too far behind. I'll advocate patience for the Canucks' high-end players (Demko and J.T. Miller in particular), but I wouldn't blame you for fielding trade offers.
Aside from Jake Guentzel's upper-body injury, the Penguins have enjoyed very strong health so far for their key players. This is a team that usually looks more like AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton for at least one month early in the year, but having all the big names healthy is doing wonders. Sidney Crosby is refusing to be excluded from the "Best in the World" conversation. I backed Rickard Rakell last week, and this week it looks like Danton Heinen may be playing his way onto the fantasy radar. He's picked up three goals, three assists and 14 shots across five games, and he was the one to take Guentzel's spot on the top line Saturday in Columbus. Even a drop back into the middle-six should keep Heinen productive since he's a regular on the second power-play unit.
New head coach Pete DeBoer has the Stars playing a much more exciting brand of hockey lately. They're atop the Western Conference with a 4-0-1 record, Jake Oettinger looks every bit as good as he was in the playoffs and they're finally getting scoring depth. Tyler Seguin has two goals and three assists in five games, looking much more like a younger version of himself after a long recovery from hip surgery that no doubt soured his production last year. Mason Marchment looks to be affixed to his left wing, but the right wing side is still wide open. Ty Dellandrea began the year there with one assist in four games before Denis Gurianov took the spot. At this point, Gurianov is a wait-and-see player in all formats -- he's yet to put it all together -- but Dellandrea has some upside at 22 years old. If the Stars get consistent offense from down the lineup, Dellandrea's likely to be a big part of that, as well as Jamie Benn, who can provide multi-category help when his offense is hot.
Not every team needs to have a narrative early in the year -- sometimes it's better to accept a player's individual results instead. Tyler Motte, now with the Senators after bouncing around last year, has been productive from the third line. He's got two goals and three assists in his last three games. This was a player that put up all of 15 points in 58 games last season, and he's never had more than 16 points in a single campaign. The 27-year-old can be helpful in bursts, especially since he's added 14 hits, eight blocked shots, 14 shots on net and a plus-4 rating in five contests this year. He's also seeing some power-play time on the second unit for the Senators. One concern with Motte's long-term outlook is that he'll likely move down to the fourth line once Alex Formenton ends his contract dispute with the team.
Opportunity has knocked in Detroit and Dominik Kubalik has answered the door promptly. One of many mid-20s players let go from the Blackhawks signed with the Red Wings for a $2.5 million cap hit. He was expected to be a third-liner, but Tyler Bertuzzi (upper body) is out for a month and Jakub Vrana (personal) will be out indefinitely, giving Kubalik a huge opportunity on the top line. The results are tantalizing -- three goals, five assists, 14 shots on net and a plus-2 rating in just five games. Four of his points have come on the power play. He's clicking in all facets with Dylan Larkin, so Kubalik needs to be snagged off the waiver wire ASAP.
With Johnny Gaudreau not missing a beat early in his Blue Jackets tenure, it's important to at least have an eye on whoever is the center on his line. For now, that's Boone Jenner, as head coach Brad Larsen opts for experience over potential on the top line. Jenner has a goal, three assists, 23 shots on goal, 13 blocked shots, 10 hits and six PIM through seven games. He's a player who sits right on the fantasy fringe most of the time, thanks to the well-rounded physical game that helps offset his less impressive offense. As long as he's alongside Gaudreau, Jenner should be considered a solid depth choice who won't hurt you anywhere.
For some players, it can be tough to separate headlines from performance. There was no shortage of talk about Canadiens rookie Arber Xhekaj for his unique last name, but he's not to be ignored on the ice either. The 21-year-old blueliner is seeing third-pairing minutes, but he's earned three points, 26 hits, nine blocked shots and 13 PIM in six games. He's a tough guy -- ask Zack Kassian about that -- but Xhekaj has also shown a little offense early on to get people's attention. Once Joel Edmundson (lower body) and Mike Matheson (abdomen) return from injury, the left side of the Canadiens' defense will look significantly different, but Xhekaj probably just needs to outplay Jordan Harris to stick on the NHL roster. Consider the man they call WiFi a short-term option in banger leagues.
That inexperienced blue line has yet to really hurt Jake Allen's numbers. He's 2-2-0 through four starts, with Saturday's 5-2 loss to the Stars the worst he's looked so far. There's nothing particularly attractive in rostering Allen, but he's been overlooked after going 9-20-4 with a 3.30 GAA and a .905 save percentage last year. He can do better -- the Canadiens don't look to be as bad as they were a year ago, and he should see a starting role. If nothing else, don't be afraid to play him for favorable matchups.
The skeptic in me doesn't love Dmitry Orlov's profile, but he had a good week. Four assists in his last two games, including one helper on the power play, turned around his early struggles. For the most part, the 31-year-old offers stability as a No. 4 or 5 fantasy defenseman. He doesn't miss much time, and he's usually good for somewhere between 25 to 35 points. He hits at a decent rate and blocks shots just a little less than that. Orlov chips in some on the power play, but not enough to really move the needle, and he doesn't hurt you on plus-minus. I'd view him more as a streamer since I'm not in ultra-deep formats, but he's a fine addition to your roster if you need the blue-line help.
The big lesson this week is a question of how to tell if things have really changed. The truth is a mixed bag -- sometimes changes last, and sometimes they're like a fad diet that you start for the health benefits and give up because chocolate cake is delicious. I'd love to see every player meet their potential each year, but that's just not how hockey works. Only you know how much mediocrity you'll tolerate from players on your fantasy team or the team you root for. Just make sure when you need to shake things up down the line, you're not holding onto what someone did for you in October.
