Here are a few angles to approach NHL playoff betting heading into the postseason. While the following recommendations are values that jumped out to me, hopefully the logic also points you in the direction of other numbers, teams and players you like.
In particular, the futures market is one way to gain some capital and exposure to better odds.
We'll consider first-round series that look like the best bets, picks for the Stanley Cup and the best values for the Conn Smythe Trophy.
FIRST-ROUND SERIES
Winnipeg (-220) over Minnesota
It's a little odd to see the Jets as a much shorter favorite than the Lightning (-350) and Predators (-560) to advance to Round 2. Winnipeg's 114 points were second in the NHL, and its 32-7-2 home-ice record ranked first. Additionally, the Jets ranked fifth in both Corsi For percentage (52.74) and goals per 60 minutes (2.96) at five-on-five in the second half.
While the significance of Ryan Suter's (leg) absence is difficult to quantify, he's impossible to replace internally, and Jared Spurgeon (hamstring) will probably be playing at less than 100 percent health when he returns. Minnesota has solid supporting defenders, but now they're going to be pushed into more difficult roles and out of their comfort zones. Not only is it the wrong time of year to extend expectations, Minnesota is now icing an especially young defense corps.
Columbus (+110) over Washington
Sergei Bobrovsky's poor postseason numbers (.887 save percentage and 3.63 GAA) shouldn't trump his solid
Here are a few angles to approach NHL playoff betting heading into the postseason. While the following recommendations are values that jumped out to me, hopefully the logic also points you in the direction of other numbers, teams and players you like.
In particular, the futures market is one way to gain some capital and exposure to better odds.
We'll consider first-round series that look like the best bets, picks for the Stanley Cup and the best values for the Conn Smythe Trophy.
FIRST-ROUND SERIES
Winnipeg (-220) over Minnesota
It's a little odd to see the Jets as a much shorter favorite than the Lightning (-350) and Predators (-560) to advance to Round 2. Winnipeg's 114 points were second in the NHL, and its 32-7-2 home-ice record ranked first. Additionally, the Jets ranked fifth in both Corsi For percentage (52.74) and goals per 60 minutes (2.96) at five-on-five in the second half.
While the significance of Ryan Suter's (leg) absence is difficult to quantify, he's impossible to replace internally, and Jared Spurgeon (hamstring) will probably be playing at less than 100 percent health when he returns. Minnesota has solid supporting defenders, but now they're going to be pushed into more difficult roles and out of their comfort zones. Not only is it the wrong time of year to extend expectations, Minnesota is now icing an especially young defense corps.
Columbus (+110) over Washington
Sergei Bobrovsky's poor postseason numbers (.887 save percentage and 3.63 GAA) shouldn't trump his solid play this season (.921 and 2.42), and especially since 11 of his 14 playoff starts have come against the high-scoring Penguins. Columbus also appears to be peaking at the right time, going 13-4-2 since March 1, and the development of Seth Jones and Zach Werenski into an elite two-way pairing capable of logging huge minutes is hard to overstate.
While Washington won the Metropolitan Division and is the favorite for a reason, there are also serious shortcomings and concerns. The Capitals lost a number of key depth pieces from last season's roster and internal replacements haven't stepped up as expected. The Caps allowed the second-most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (13.06) this season, which doesn't bode well with a potential goalie controversy brewing. Philipp Grubauer will make just his second playoff start in Game 1, too.
Los Angeles (+120) over Vegas
Injuries partially explain the Golden Knights offensive slide over the final months of the season, but drawing the Kings in Round 1 is not a dreamy matchup for a division winner. The expansion franchise isn't going to sneak up on Los Angeles, and there's also a legitimate case to be made that Vegas has already peaked.
The defensively stout Kings stand as an especially daunting opponent because the Golden Knights generated the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league from Feb. 1 through the end of the season. Additionally, Jonathan Quick owns a .921 save percentage through 81 career postseason starts, and he's backstopped a number of series upsets in the past. Playoff experience is often overrated, but it's also not out of the question to suggest Los Angeles has the best forward, defenseman and goalie of the two teams – and all three have multiple Stanley Cup rings.
STANLEY CUP FUTURES
Winnipeg Jets (+850)
If targeting the Round 1 win over Minnesota didn't offer enough juice for the squeeze, consider the Jets to win it all. Their number gains value because of a potential second-round date with the Cup-favorite Predators. It's a high hurdle to top Nashville, and realistically the series could be featuring the two best teams in the entire playoffs. Still, Winnipeg advancing wouldn't be a shocking upset, and the Jets might be chalk the following two rounds.
Depth is a strength up front, as youngsters Jack Roslovic and Marko Dano project to start the postseason as healthy scratches. Roslovic is capable of sliding into a scoring role, whereas Dano or Shawn Matthias are serviceable bottom-six options. The blue line is a little bit of a different story, as both Tobias Enstrom (lower body) and Dmitry Kulikov (back) are out for the foreseeable. Still, Tucker Poolman treaded water through 24 games, and Sami Niku could enter the lineup to play a third-pairing role. He was just named the top defenseman in the AHL, after all.
The Jets could lose a key piece and still ice a high-powered lineup, and that's particularly important at this time of year.
San Jose Sharks (+3000)
The Sharks are just a year removed from a Stanley Cup appearance and finished the season strong at 19-11-2 and with the fourth-most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes since Feb. 1. Additionally, San Jose rolled off an impressive eight-game winning streak in March. It's also worth noting that the Sharks owned the best penalty-kill percentage (87.7) and allowed the fewest goals per 60 minutes (4.68) while shorthanded in the second half.
The Ducks are a difficult draw in the first round, but John Gibson hasn't played since April 1 because of an upper-body injury, and his status hasn't been officially confirmed. If he's unable to go, or he aggravates the injury, the drop off to Ryan Miller has been notable this season. Gibson has also batted lower-body maladies this year. Joe Thornton (knee) returning at some point in the series could provide a nice boost for the Sharks, too.
At this long of a number, there is the potential to hedge to a profit if San Jose advances past the first two rounds.
CONN SMYTHE PICKS
Pekka Rinne (+800)
The Predators are the Stanley Cup favorites at +350, so backing their backstop adds more than double the value. Rinne has led Nashville all season, and he will warrant serious consideration for the Conn Smythe Trophy if the Preds hoist the Cup. It's also a solid team dynamic for him to win, as Nashville typically scores by committee, and its most recognizable star is defenseman P.K. Subban (+2500).
A goalie hasn't won the award since the 2011-12 season when Jonathan Quick took home the hardware and made it back-to-back tenders, after Tim Thomas was the 2010-11 recipient. While playing the "due factor" isn't an advised approach, 15 goalies have won it, so it's far from a rarity. Additionally, Rinne's dominant regular season (42 wins, .927 save percentage and 2.31 GAA) won't be an afterthought for voters, either.
Patrice Bergeron (+2500)
This might be the last piece of hardware Bergeron has a realistic chance to win for the first time. He's already collected all the team championships he can, and the four-time Selke Trophy winner proves annually that he warrants mention among the best players in the league. Consistently matching up against the opposition's top scorers won't go unnoticed this spring.
If Boston is going to win it all, the list of players Bergeron will have had to slow will read like an All-Star ballot, and he's also likely to be among the top scorers on his own team. Additionally, Bergeron is an analytics darling. With many writers taking advanced statistics more seriously, and the veteran center already a favorite among the media, he's a strong candidate for the Conn Smythe honors.
