We all enter the fantasy draft hunting for diamonds in the rough, but when we look back on the teams we end up with, sometimes it's not the players we missed out on that define them, but the ones we wish we didn't take. While sometimes it's just a matter of getting unlucky due to injury, there are instances where a player was simply overvalued.
The goal of this article is to help with that by identifying some players who are at significant risk of underperforming. Yahoo's average draft position (ADP) will be used as the metric we're judging these players against. For example, if a player's ADP suggests that he typically is taken in the third round, but he's in significant danger of providing value more in keeping with a mid-round player, then he'll find his way on this list.
As a disclaimer, all ADPs listed here were accurate at the time this article was written, but they can change over time. It's also worth clarifying that an ADP of 2.1 means on average the player was selected with the No. 2 overall pick, as opposed to them being selected with the first pick of the second round.
Brady Tkachuk, Ottawa (C/LW) – 9.7 ADP
Fantasy managers might be jumping the gun a little with the younger Tkachuk. There's no question he's going to provide you value after recording at least 30 goals in each of his past three seasons and exceeding the 70-point milestone in back-to-back campaigns.
We all enter the fantasy draft hunting for diamonds in the rough, but when we look back on the teams we end up with, sometimes it's not the players we missed out on that define them, but the ones we wish we didn't take. While sometimes it's just a matter of getting unlucky due to injury, there are instances where a player was simply overvalued.
The goal of this article is to help with that by identifying some players who are at significant risk of underperforming. Yahoo's average draft position (ADP) will be used as the metric we're judging these players against. For example, if a player's ADP suggests that he typically is taken in the third round, but he's in significant danger of providing value more in keeping with a mid-round player, then he'll find his way on this list.
As a disclaimer, all ADPs listed here were accurate at the time this article was written, but they can change over time. It's also worth clarifying that an ADP of 2.1 means on average the player was selected with the No. 2 overall pick, as opposed to them being selected with the first pick of the second round.
Brady Tkachuk, Ottawa (C/LW) – 9.7 ADP
Fantasy managers might be jumping the gun a little with the younger Tkachuk. There's no question he's going to provide you value after recording at least 30 goals in each of his past three seasons and exceeding the 70-point milestone in back-to-back campaigns. If your league counts PIM or hits (or better yet, both), then he also offers added versatility that unquestionably boosts his value. Should he be taken ahead of Matthew Tkachuk (11.1 ADP), Artemi Panarin (11.3), J.T. Miller (12.3), Jack Hughes (13.5) and Kirill Kaprizov (14.6), though? Each of the elder Tkachuk, Panarin and Miller has exceeded the 80-point mark in all of the past three campaigns, which Brady Tkachuk has done just once in his career, and has hit the century mark at least once in that span. Meanwhile, Hughes managed to record 27 goals and 74 points last season despite featuring in just 62 games and Kaprizov is coming off a 46-goal and 96-point season, marking the third straight time he's exceeded the 40-goal milestone. None of this speaks ill of the younger Tkachuk, but it does appear he's being selected a touch too early. Some of that might be tied to the expectation of further growth, but Tkachuk is 25 years old with six full NHL seasons under his belt, so there's no guarantee he has an even higher level to reach.
Sergei Bobrovsky, Florida (G): 40.9 ADP
Bobrovsky was a Vezina Trophy finalist with a 36-17-4 record, 2.37 GAA and .915 save percentage in 58 regular-season starts in 2023-24, so naturally he's one of the earlier goaltenders taken. The problem is Bobrovsky has been anything but consistent from one year to the next. With him set to turn 36 before the start of the campaign, his age is becoming a bit of a concern too, especially after making do with back-to-back short offseason training programs thanks to the Panthers' consecutive runs to the Stanley Cup Finals. Florida having a great team and uncertainty in the backup role make it likely that Bobrovsky can at least be counted on for wins, but he's a far riskier bet in terms of GAA and save percentage.
Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina (LW/RW): 43.9 ADP
Svechnikov has averaged 28 goals and 71 points per 82 games over the past five campaigns, but injuries have been a recurring issue for him. He was limited to 59 regular-season contests in 2023-24, finishing with 19 goals and 52 points as a result. Although the potential for him to hit that 70-point mark for the first time is there if he can stay healthy, it would be appropriate to take his injury history into context and be a bit more cautious when evaluating him.
Alex Ovechkin, Washington (LW): 45.7 ADP
Although Ovechkin's age has already been somewhat factored into his draft position, there is still some danger here. His longevity and ability to defy the odds have made people weary of doubting him, but at the age of 39, there is a real chance that he'll continue the regression he showed last season when he finished with 31 goals and 65 points in 79 regular-season contests. Look at it this way -- if he dips to 25 goals and 55 points, which would still be solid contributions at this late stage of his career, then taking him ahead of other LW-eligible players like Jesper Bratt (54.0 ADP), Tim Stutzle (57.6) and Carter Verhaeghe (60.5) is a move you'd likely regret.
Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks (G): 53.8 ADP
Demko had a 35-14-2 record, 2.45 GAA and .918 save percentage in 51 regular-season starts in 2023-24 en route to finishing second in Vezina Trophy voting. Unfortunately, it's hard to know if he'll perform anywhere close to that level this year. He's dealing with a knee injury, and Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman suggested Sept. 6 that it's the type of issue Demko will have to learn to play with because it's not something that can be addressed via surgery or be recovered from any time soon. If that is the case, then it's not hard to envision a scenario where Demko is less effective than he was last year. At the very least, taking him is a big risk, and at that point in the draft, you should be looking to secure a safer option in goal.
Brandon Montour, Seattle (D): 82.1 ADP
Montour was somewhat hampered by injury in 2023-24 and finished with eight goals and 33 points across 66 regular-season contests. Some might look to Montour's 73-point performance in 2022-23 and expect him to rebound in the upcoming campaign provided he's healthy, but keep in mind that was the only time the 30-year-old has reached even the 40-point milestone. He's also shifting from one of the league's top offenses in Florida to one of the worst in Seattle, which will limit his opportunities. It's not that Montour has nothing going for him, it's just that his draft position is a bit high for what he is. If you're looking for a high-risk, high-reward defenseman in that draft range, then Erik Karlsson (92.8 ADP) would be a better option. Sure, Karlsson's age is getting a the point where it's a bit of a concern, especially given his injury history, but Karlsson has 11 campaigns in which he's reached the 40-point mark under his belt, is coming off a 56-point season and, like Montour, is just one season removed from a massive showing (101 points in Karlsson's case).
Luke Hughes, New Jersey (D): 106.7 ADP
Hughes had a great rookie campaign, providing nine goals and 47 points across 82 contests. He did suffer a shoulder injury Sept. 12, which is expected to cost him at least the first 10 games of the season, but that's not the only reason he's part of this list. He had 27 power-play points last season, but he did so while getting ample ice time with the man advantage in part because Hamilton missed almost the entire campaign due to injury. With Hamilton healthy, Hughes might find himself moved to the second power-play unit, which would have a significant impact on his offensive output.
Looking for the players you should be targeting? Check out our 7 players who could exceed expectations this season.
