This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
Forty-eight of the top 50 players in the world will compete at The Players this week at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., on a revamped course and in a climate of a wide-open PGA Tour season with headliners and yet questions at every turn. Here's our stats preview.
The Changes
While the greens have been re-grassed for hopefully better and more consistent performance in May and some other subtle changes have been made to make the fan-viewing experience around the sixth and seventh holes better, the major change everyone will talk about is how the 12th hole is now a driveable par-4, something TPC Sawgrass was lacking. You can find out more about the hole here. An overall look at what's been done is here.
We're here for stats, though, and that's where this gets a bit hairy. Few players have seen the hole yet, so we don't know what they'll do when they come across it. But we do have the going for the green stat, which measures the percentage of time a player goes for it on a par-4 or par-5. The way I'd look at it is this: these guys are most likely to go for a hole like No. 12 in one (or two on a par-5). See if you like them overall, then decide as you prep for the week if you think No. 12 will play a big part in the outcome (my take: too early for me to say,
Forty-eight of the top 50 players in the world will compete at The Players this week at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., on a revamped course and in a climate of a wide-open PGA Tour season with headliners and yet questions at every turn. Here's our stats preview.
The Changes
While the greens have been re-grassed for hopefully better and more consistent performance in May and some other subtle changes have been made to make the fan-viewing experience around the sixth and seventh holes better, the major change everyone will talk about is how the 12th hole is now a driveable par-4, something TPC Sawgrass was lacking. You can find out more about the hole here. An overall look at what's been done is here.
We're here for stats, though, and that's where this gets a bit hairy. Few players have seen the hole yet, so we don't know what they'll do when they come across it. But we do have the going for the green stat, which measures the percentage of time a player goes for it on a par-4 or par-5. The way I'd look at it is this: these guys are most likely to go for a hole like No. 12 in one (or two on a par-5). See if you like them overall, then decide as you prep for the week if you think No. 12 will play a big part in the outcome (my take: too early for me to say, I still think 16-18 will decide things as it always seems to do).
Those players in the field this week are:
Bubba Watson - 74.68 percent
Brooks Koepka - 71.88
Gary Woodland - 71.08
Jon Rahm -70.80
Sergio Garcia - 69.77
I absolutely love Rahm, and not just because he played well at the Wells Fargo Championship. He has guts and moxie, won't be intimidated by Pete Dye's Stadium Course and has other stats in his favor: third in strokes gained-off the tee, ninth in approach to the green and 47th in putting and eighth in scoring average.
Garcia we will address below.
Weddings and Honeymoons
Two players, Rory McIlroy and Garcia, are returning from layoffs since the Masters, one of which because of an actual wedding and honeymoon – Rory – and Garcia because of the proverbial honeymoon post-green jacket.
McIlroy is an interesting case in that his recent finishes at TPC Sawgrass have turned positive: T12-T8-T6-T8 from 2016-2013 (graphic first seen on Golf Channel). Yet you never quite know how one will compete after a wedding. The Masters is a perfect example – 72-73 over the first two days, albeit over tough conditions, with eight combined bogeys – where he couldn't eradicate the mistakes quickly enough. How fast he can eliminate mistakes – how rusty he'll be - will decide if he contends, and daily players should keep an eye on that. But for weekly players, I'd avoid him.
Garcia drove it sensationally at Augusta – he's first in strokes gained-off the tee this season on the PGA Tour, fifth in greens in regulation and second in scoring average – and got his putter to cooperate when it mattered most on Sunday – and got his first major championship. However, he's returning off a long layoff, post-the biggest high of his golfing life, and that might be too much to overcome. I wouldn't pick him, either.
The Players Notes
• I still firmly believe this is Rickie Fowler's type of venue, where in 2015 his moxie combined with stout driving, sound approaches and a hot putter got it done. The iron game and putter are there – third in approach to the green and seventh in putting this season – and still think if he can garner up the 72-hole, consistent play that won him Honda we could see him in the winner's circle again this week.
• Jordan Spieth has had some weird issues around TPC Sawgrass as a pro. 2014: T4. 2015: missed cut. 2016: missed cut. If you want a positive for Spieth: first in strokes gained-approach to the green this season, his weak spot from last year. And he played great alongside Ryan Palmer two weeks ago in New Orleans. Negative: he's 119th in strokes gained-off the tee, and that may be accentuated next week in Pete Dye's design. Daily player: see how he's driving early in the week. Weekly player: He's overdue to win at this course, so I'm leaning toward going with him, but take in all available data first.
• Alex Noren and Patrick Reed played well at the Wells Fargo. Reed had an equipment issue that seems to have straightened out his game upon being rectified. He finished T12 at Eagle Point. He's overdue, and I recommend him.
Noren was my sleeper at Augusta but came up short. He played great for three rounds at the Wells Fargo before a final-round 77. He's overdue for a win on U.S. soil.
• Jason Day hasn't shown enough to make me confident enough to pick him at the Players. Too little information on Justin Rose post-Augusta, too.
• Bubba Watson continues to seem out of sorts and is a nightmare for this venue.
• I really like Cameron Smith, and Justin Thomas is a nice choice if he can drive it better. His game has been way erratic lately.
The Weather
It'll be sunny and hot, with temperatures around 90 on Thursday and Friday and in the mid-80s Saturday and Sunday, with some breeze.
