This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
The PGA Tour moves to Florida for the Honda Classic, featuring the thing you will hear way too much about this week, the Bear Trap. But before we get there, we must reflect on Dustin Johnson becoming No. 1 in the world.
When Dustin is On, He's On
You've heard all the numbers – 13 wins, 10 straight years with a win, the consistency of high finishes … the whole nine yards. But just consider his stats last week from the Genesis Open. He averaged 315.3 yards off the tee (first), was first in strokes gained–off the tee, T45 in driving accuracy (ask anyone in the know and they'll tell you that ranking is as good as being first for a long-ball hitter; huge advantage), first in greens in regulation, 20th in approach to the green and third in putting. If he keeps doing that, watch out, he could have a Tiger Woods-in-his-prime type season. That's how talented he is.
The Stat
The Champions Course at PGA National features a lot of water – we're entering the part of the PGA Tour season featuring plenty of water hazards – and breezy conditions. Accuracy, especially off the tee, is key at this Jack Nicklaus-design. Here are the strokes gained–off the tee leaders for this season in the field this week:
Sergio Garcia - 1.055 strokes gained on the field per round off the tee
Lucas Glover - .775
Justin Thomas - .732
Hudson Swafford - .704
Grayson Murray - .678
First
The PGA Tour moves to Florida for the Honda Classic, featuring the thing you will hear way too much about this week, the Bear Trap. But before we get there, we must reflect on Dustin Johnson becoming No. 1 in the world.
When Dustin is On, He's On
You've heard all the numbers – 13 wins, 10 straight years with a win, the consistency of high finishes … the whole nine yards. But just consider his stats last week from the Genesis Open. He averaged 315.3 yards off the tee (first), was first in strokes gained–off the tee, T45 in driving accuracy (ask anyone in the know and they'll tell you that ranking is as good as being first for a long-ball hitter; huge advantage), first in greens in regulation, 20th in approach to the green and third in putting. If he keeps doing that, watch out, he could have a Tiger Woods-in-his-prime type season. That's how talented he is.
The Stat
The Champions Course at PGA National features a lot of water – we're entering the part of the PGA Tour season featuring plenty of water hazards – and breezy conditions. Accuracy, especially off the tee, is key at this Jack Nicklaus-design. Here are the strokes gained–off the tee leaders for this season in the field this week:
Sergio Garcia - 1.055 strokes gained on the field per round off the tee
Lucas Glover - .775
Justin Thomas - .732
Hudson Swafford - .704
Grayson Murray - .678
First of all, keep an eye on Thomas, who finished T3 in this event last year.
I'll go with Swafford. He won the CareerBuilder, ranking first in strokes gained–off the tee and first in greens in regulation. He's missed his two cuts since but now gets to come to PGA National, take a deep breath and re-group on the Bermuda greens he's more comfortable with having gone to school at Georgia. If you need someone to earn some points yet maybe not get a win, Swafford is your guy this week.
The Field
The field includes defending champion Adam Scott, Danny Willett, Justin Thomas, last week's runner-up Thomas Pieters, Zach Johnson, Sergio Garcia, Rickie Fowler, Branden Grace, Daniel Berger (who lost in a playoff here two years ago), Padraig Harrington who won in 2015, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Paul Casey, past champion Russell Henley, Brooks Koepka, Danny Willett and Jimmy Walker.
Grace and Pieters are my picks.
Grace just finished T22 at the Genesis Open, ranking a solid 36th in strokes gained–tee to green, T45 in driving accuracy, T35 in greens in regulation and 25th in putting. His strength is ballstriking, Honda is a ballstrikers golf course, and I like Grace this week.
Pieters, meanwhile, is coming off an impressive display at Riviera where he tied for second and ranked fourth in strokes gained–approach to the green, sixth in putting, first in birdies and T2 in greens in regulation. He's in search of a special temporary membership at the moment and could take care of all of that with a high finish and could get his full membership with a victory, something many think is only a matter of time. On a windy, water-laden golf course, Pieters is a strong selection.
One player you should not pick: Harrington, who has a triceps injury and is considering surgery.
The Weather
After absolutely pouring Wednesday, tournament days will feature sunshine, humidity, breezy conditions and temperatures in the high 70s and low 80s.
