This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
A new year has arrived and so has the start of the 2017 portion of the 2016-17 PGA Tour season at the SBS Tournament of Champions at Kapalua on the island of Maui in Hawaii. And as a result, here's our first stats thread of the new year.
A Disclaimer
The first couple weeks of fantasy golf every season are an absolute and complete crapshoot. We have golfers on various agendas, from those who haven't been playing any golf to those who have been playing a lot to those who are about to start a season-starting run to those who are about to take a month off. No one has any idea what to expect this week and stats, even from the fall, aren't that reliable. It's a lot of hopes and guesses. Throw in new equipment and I'm not sure some of the players even know what to expect. So take everything you read and hear from the players themselves with a grain of salt.
Approach Putt Performance
As we talk about every year, the greens at Kapalua are utterly huge – the biggest all year. You're going to have several 60-80 foot putts (and longer) and being able to lag them up close will be a key to who will perform well this week. And yes, there's a stat for that – average approach putt performance. Here are those statistical leaders from 2015-16 in the field this week:
Rod Pampling – on average Pampling leaves his first putt
A new year has arrived and so has the start of the 2017 portion of the 2016-17 PGA Tour season at the SBS Tournament of Champions at Kapalua on the island of Maui in Hawaii. And as a result, here's our first stats thread of the new year.
A Disclaimer
The first couple weeks of fantasy golf every season are an absolute and complete crapshoot. We have golfers on various agendas, from those who haven't been playing any golf to those who have been playing a lot to those who are about to start a season-starting run to those who are about to take a month off. No one has any idea what to expect this week and stats, even from the fall, aren't that reliable. It's a lot of hopes and guesses. Throw in new equipment and I'm not sure some of the players even know what to expect. So take everything you read and hear from the players themselves with a grain of salt.
Approach Putt Performance
As we talk about every year, the greens at Kapalua are utterly huge – the biggest all year. You're going to have several 60-80 foot putts (and longer) and being able to lag them up close will be a key to who will perform well this week. And yes, there's a stat for that – average approach putt performance. Here are those statistical leaders from 2015-16 in the field this week:
Rod Pampling – on average Pampling leaves his first putt 1 foot, 11 inches from the hole
Bubba Watson -- 2-0
William McGirt -- 2-1
Daniel Berger -- 2-2
Billy Hurley III -- 2-2
Watson is an interesting case this week as he's playing a new ball from a new sponsor, Volvik. I'm all for ball changes, but Kapalua and windy conditions aren't the prime location to be testing them. His proximity to the hole last year was 66th at 35 feet and change. How will that compare with a new ball in the wind? Who knows, and that's the exact reason to be a bit wary.
My pick in this category is Berger. He won in Memphis last year, had two top-15s to end the 2015-2016 season and then turned around and tied for second at the HSBC Champions last fall. He's also got one of the best all-around games on this list, ranking 19th in strokes gained – total for 2015-2016.
Also keep an eye on McGirt. He won the Memorial and has seen his career slowly rise to new heights. A consistent player who putts well, finishing 29th in strokes gained-putting last year, he was also 31st in driving accuracy and 51st in greens in regulation, both solid stats that shows a steady game week-to-week.
The Three Parts of the Field
There are basically three groups of players in this winners-only event: the big names, the solid names, and the who? Yes, even in a winners only event, there may be some names you may not recognize. Here are some recommendations from each group of players.
The Names: Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Jason Dufner, Russell Knox, Hideki Matsuyama, Ryan Moore, Patrick Reed, Justin Thomas, Brandt Snedeker, Jimmy Walker, Bubba Watson
Matsuyama is the clear pick as the hottest player in the world right now having won four of his last five worldwide starts. Furthermore, his Hero World Challenge win is the most recent of anyone in the field so one would think his game is strong now. For last season he ranked third in strokes gained-approach to the green, fourth in birdie average and 13th in scoring average. But it's his putter that's woken up in this stretch and that's going to be the most crucial club this week.
Day is coming off a very long layoff having not played since September when he withdrew from the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship with back problems. He says he's healthy and I trust that. But he also touched a club twice in three months until two weeks ago and is working on shortening his swing to take pressure off his back. He tied for 10th here last year shooting a final-round 65 while also rusty and I expect similar at best this week. I'd steer clear. Especially if the course plays long, you need all aspects of your game on point.
Spieth finally got the offseason he wanted and comes in with positive momentum from the end of last season when he won at the Australian Open in a playoff. He's also the defending champion here, winning a runaway last year where he averaged a gain of Spieth-like 1.909 strokes on the greens per round. I bring that up because it was his putter that saved him Down Under, especially on a wind-driven Sunday where he could not find the golf course with the long clubs.
The Solid: Daniel Berger, Tony Finau, Branden Grace, James Hahn, Charley Hoffman, William McGirt, Pat Perez, Brendan Steele, Jhonattan Vegas
Grace is a really intriguing figure as someone who could play well this week. Sneaky long (he was 48th in driving distance last season), he finished 13th in strokes gained-approach to the green and 15th in tee to green and feels like a good candidate to win this week due to the consistency of his game. It's his first time on this course so we'll see how fast he can learn its nuances but I'd look toward him this week.
Also, on a golf course that will start out the week wet and is fairly long (7,400-plus yards over undulating terrain), Finau's length will be crucial. I'd pick him. The Puerto Rico Open champion was third in driving distance and 25th in strokes gained-off the tee last season. He was also 66th in birdie average and 65th in scoring average, showing that the talent is there to convert many of those birdie opportunities into actual birdies. Keep an eye on him this week if he learns Kapalua fast enough.
The Who: Aaron Baddeley, Greg Chalmers, Fabian Gomez, Cody Gribble, Jim Herman, Mackenzie Hughes, Billy Hurley III, Si Woo Kim, Rod Pampling, Brian Stuard, Vaughn Taylor
Gribble won in the fall at the Sanderson Farms Championship and opened some eyes with his play. A long-ball hitter, he could be a factor this week as well. He was 11th that week in driving distance – at 312.2 yards per drive – but was also first in strokes gained-putting on the week, gaining a whopping 8.800 shots for the week on the field on the greens alone. If that combination continues – with inevitable help from his Texas teammate Jordan Spieth as his PGA Tour stay rolls on – Gribble could be a contender for more than one victory in his inaugural PGA Tour campaign.
The Weather
After a lot of recent rain the forecast is very nice, with sunny skies, temperatures in the mid-70s and winds at 10-15 mph.
