This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
Tiger Woods' return to official PGA Tour events this week at the Farmers Insurance Open will steal the headlines, but this is a really good field at Torrey Pines with some really interesting players from which to choose. Here's this week's stats thread.
The New North Course
Remember that this is a brand new North Course they're playing this week. (Players play the North and the South Courses over Thursday-Friday before moving exclusively to the South Course for the weekend.) Tom Weiskopf has sought to make the North a tad harder and longer, yet playable for all, while flipping the nines. So don't make any picks based on past North Course performances.
The Importance of Rough in Winning
Phil Mickelson mentioned last week that while his game was rusty, he wanted to come back at the CareerBuilder Challenge because you could afford to hit offline shots and still recover and not shoot 86, like you can at Torrey Pines if things go really bad. That bore out with winner Hudson Swafford.
Swafford for the week was fifth in driving distance yet T61 in driving accuracy. Yet without penal rough he was able to finish T1 in greens in regulation, and even with a putter that wasn't the hottest in the field, still won. So in events that don't have much penal rough, throw out driving accuracy. More often than not, if the player has a good iron game, he's going to be just fine.
Watch Out for a Rookie
Those
Tiger Woods' return to official PGA Tour events this week at the Farmers Insurance Open will steal the headlines, but this is a really good field at Torrey Pines with some really interesting players from which to choose. Here's this week's stats thread.
The New North Course
Remember that this is a brand new North Course they're playing this week. (Players play the North and the South Courses over Thursday-Friday before moving exclusively to the South Course for the weekend.) Tom Weiskopf has sought to make the North a tad harder and longer, yet playable for all, while flipping the nines. So don't make any picks based on past North Course performances.
The Importance of Rough in Winning
Phil Mickelson mentioned last week that while his game was rusty, he wanted to come back at the CareerBuilder Challenge because you could afford to hit offline shots and still recover and not shoot 86, like you can at Torrey Pines if things go really bad. That bore out with winner Hudson Swafford.
Swafford for the week was fifth in driving distance yet T61 in driving accuracy. Yet without penal rough he was able to finish T1 in greens in regulation, and even with a putter that wasn't the hottest in the field, still won. So in events that don't have much penal rough, throw out driving accuracy. More often than not, if the player has a good iron game, he's going to be just fine.
Watch Out for a Rookie
Those who watched the CareerBuilder Challenge had to be impressed with rookie Dominic Bozzelli. An early leader after a 64, the Reshuffle List player with a ho-hum start to the 2016-17 PGA Tour season suddenly had cameras following his every move the rest of the week. While a couple stray shots led to him falling out of contention Sunday he ultimately finished fifth alone. On a week where his ballstriking wasn't quite there – he was T15 in driving distance, T42 in driving accuracy and T21 in greens in regulation – his putter saved him, ranking 12th in putts per GIR for the week. That putter also came in clutch last year on the Web.com Tour as his driving average and greens hit rankings were all 100-plus yet was 23rd in putting average.
I really like this kid's swing and his poise last week was remarkable. Don't be surprised if he has a strong performance this week.
Contenders in the Field
Besides Tiger, Mickelson, and Bozzelli, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, defending champion Brandt Snedeker, Paul Casey, Bud Cauley, Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka, Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose, last week's winner Hudson Swafford, Jimmy Walker and Gary Woodland are all in the field.
Don't pick Tiger. First real event in 17 months, back on Torrey's tight holes and thick rough after recent rains … too many question marks, don't go there.
Do I trust Mickelson? His T21 at the CareerBuilder was impressive with someone with little practice entering but also featured erratic play, with ball striking (especially with the driver) that was inconsistent and a short game that routinely saved him. He's won at Torrey Pines, so I understand the temptation, but the T61 in driving accuracy and 76th in greens in regulation ranks last week that will be penalized more on the South Course especially concerns me. If you're in a league where you can bench Mickelson on Thursday and adjust during the week I'd go with him this week. If not, you may want to take another week off.
I do like Cauley. Cauley is one of the rarest of PGA Tour players: he got his card without ever going to the Web.com Tour or qualifying school. Injuries set him back though, and he has spent much of the last two years either rehabbing his body or his game. He's back on the big stage now and had a huge weekend at the CareerBuilder, where he wound up tying for third and ranked second in birdies, T4 in greens in regulation and second in putts per GIR. That good iron play could come in handy this week.
The Stat
Especially since the North Course is a big unknown, it can be tough to figure out exactly what will be the go-to stat this week. But whenever you're at a course with a ton of rain and juicy rough, strokes gained-tee to green will be key. The guy at the top of that ranking who I like this week is Kevin Chappell. He's first in that stat this season, is overdue for his first win and ranks first in strokes gained-off the tee, third in approach to the green and second in around the green. Small sample size yes, but he's the right type of guy to win on a course where ballstriking will be at a premium.
The Weather
It's going to be absolutely gorgeous in La Jolla this week with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s under sunny skies. However, it could get very windy as the week progresses, so that's something to keep an eye on.
