This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
This week the PGA Tour moves to Los Angeles for the Genesis Open. Here's our stats preview from the newest event run by the Tiger Woods Foundation.
Jordan Spieth is really good at his job
So many stats from his win at Pebble impressed me and really show how he's progressing as a golfer: on Saturday he had 13 one-putts – and 23 total on the round and just 10 on the back nine – en route to 65. He followed that by hitting 16 of 18 greens (in his mind 17) on Sunday as he cruised to an easy 70 to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This stat from the ShotLink folks stunned me, however.
Since the start of the 2014-2015 season, Spieth has made a whopping 26 percent of his 15-25-foot putts, five percentage points above the next golfer. And that doesn't include The Masters, U.S. Open or Open Championship. And that was entering last week. With his improved iron play – he's now fourth in strokes gained-approach to the green after being 87th in the category last season – I think he's a definite candidate to win another major, and this week, too.
Is this Dustin Johnson's Week?
According to Geoff Shackelford on an appearance on Golf Central on Monday, the rough isn't a big deal this week, which he thinks plays into Dustin Johnson's hand. Johnson finished third last week at Pebble Beach, shooting 66-68 at Pebble over the weekend, hitting 75 percent of his
This week the PGA Tour moves to Los Angeles for the Genesis Open. Here's our stats preview from the newest event run by the Tiger Woods Foundation.
Jordan Spieth is really good at his job
So many stats from his win at Pebble impressed me and really show how he's progressing as a golfer: on Saturday he had 13 one-putts – and 23 total on the round and just 10 on the back nine – en route to 65. He followed that by hitting 16 of 18 greens (in his mind 17) on Sunday as he cruised to an easy 70 to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This stat from the ShotLink folks stunned me, however.
Since the start of the 2014-2015 season, Spieth has made a whopping 26 percent of his 15-25-foot putts, five percentage points above the next golfer. And that doesn't include The Masters, U.S. Open or Open Championship. And that was entering last week. With his improved iron play – he's now fourth in strokes gained-approach to the green after being 87th in the category last season – I think he's a definite candidate to win another major, and this week, too.
Is this Dustin Johnson's Week?
According to Geoff Shackelford on an appearance on Golf Central on Monday, the rough isn't a big deal this week, which he thinks plays into Dustin Johnson's hand. Johnson finished third last week at Pebble Beach, shooting 66-68 at Pebble over the weekend, hitting 75 percent of his greens for the week (T13) and, over the final two rounds, ranking seventh in strokes gained-off the tee and seventh in strokes gained-around the green.
He's never won at Riviera but has come close, finishing fourth last year, losing in a playoff in 2015 and tying for second in 2014. The time seems right for him to finally get a W here.
Consider also how key the wedge/around-the-green game is at Riviera, which is his biggest area of improvement and which led him to win a major last year as he ranked 75th in the category last season versus 160 in 2015. He's seventh this year in that department. All positive signs.
The Stat
With manageable rough this week, proximity to the hole from rough will be a key stat to determine who can get back in gear from the tight confines that makes Riviera so unique on the PGA Tour. The leaders in that category playing this week are:
Luke Donald -25 feet, 11 inches
Bubba Watson -- 32 feet, 6 inches
Whee Kim -- 34 feet, 1 inch
Phil Mickelson -- 34 feet, 10 inches
Jimmy Walker -- 35 feet, 4 inches
I occasionally like to give solid picks to give you points, versus people I think could win, and that's Mickelson for me this week. He's making way too many bogeys to contend for wins – consider that he's 31st in birdie average yet T110 in bogey average (which is bad; the ideal rank in the category is first with 0.00 average). But he's making cuts and getting mostly T25-T35 finishes, which some fantasy players desperately need.
The Contenders
The field also includes, among others, Justin Thomas, past champion Keegan Bradley, B.H. An, Paul Casey, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Jim Furyk, Sergio Garcia, Branden Grace, Bill Haas, Charles Howell III, Billy Horschel, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed and Justin Rose.
I really like Garcia and Howell this week, in addition to guys like Thomas, Matsuyama and Casey who we've spoken about recently.
Garcia just won in Dubai on the European Tour and did it while hitting 70 percent of his fairways, 82 percent of his greens, all while averaging 29 putts per round. Do that again on the ballstriking paradise that is Riviera and Garcia may soon notch his newest PGA Tour win.
We can do a whole article about Howell and his career – or underwhelming career at that – but the dude is a money machine, having won over $32 million even with just two career PGA Tour wins. This was the site of one of those wins, back in 2007, and has the right makeup to win on this golf course again. So far this year he's ranked 40th in strokes gained – off the tee, 30th in approach to the green, and 65th in putting. I like him this week, especially if you need a solid finish.
The Weather
The weather this week will be dicey, with heavy rain and wind Friday, showers Thursday and Saturday before clearing out with sunshine and temperatures in the low-60s on Sunday.
