Willis McGahee

McGahee is facing an uncertain future in Denver with the draft selection of Montee Ball and will probably end up in a backup role or timeshare.

McGahee ran for a surprising 1,199 yards last season, his most since 2007, though his five touchdowns actually tied a career low set back in 2005. His 12 catches and 51 receiving yards were also career worsts, which was somewhat surprising as McGahee acted as a lead back for the first time in four years. He’s a perfectly serviceable back, even making the Pro Bowl last season, and it appears Knowshon Moreno is a bust, but McGahee is approaching 2,000 career carries and will turn 31 this season. Moreover, Denver spent an early third-round pick on Ronnie Hillman, though John Elway referred to the rookie as more of a change-of-pace option. McGahee is a safe, if boring, fantasy pick, though there’s a real chance he sees a big upward tick in scoring opportunities with Peyton Manning taking over QB duties.

One year after scoring 14 touchdowns, McGahee was used strictly in a backup role last season, though he did lead Baltimore with nine goal-line carries. After being cut by the Ravens, McGahee signed a three-year deal with the Broncos to backup Knowshon Moreno, although he may be able to grab some goal-line touches.

McGahee got 5.0 YPC and scored 14 touchdowns (tied for fourth-most in the NFL) last year. But because he was given only 109 carries and his scores came in bunches, he was basically unusable in fantasy leagues, thanks largely to Ray Rice’s emergence. Despite some trade rumors, McGahee is still with the Ravens, and his role is clearly as a backup. He could once again approach double-digit touchdowns while acting as the team’s primary option at the goal line, but it would take an injury to Rice for McGahee to be relevant, as he simply won’t see enough action otherwise.

McGahee was a bust in 2008, rushing for just 671 yards with 3.9 YPC. A knee injury slowed him to start the season, but ultimately, Le'Ron McClain outplayed him, and McGahee became the lesser part of a timeshare. The Ravens would take a massive salary cap hit if they released him, so McGahee's spot on the team remains safe. Still, the current coaching staff has no ties to McGahee and doesn't feel compelled to give him a full workload again. With Le'Ron McClain returning to fullback, McGahee remains in the picture, but he'll be competing with Ray Rice, who has to be considered the favorite. McGahee also had offseason surgery on his ankle, and while it wasn't thought to be serious, he's an overrated back who's gotten just 3.9 YPC during his career.

After totaling just 11 touchdowns the previous two seasons, McGahee scored in an impressive seven straight games last year. Unfortunately, he didn't record a rushing TD in any other contest, finishing with eight scores on the year. McGahee's 4.1 YPC was actually a career-high, as were his 43 receptions and 231 yards receiving. The Ravens incorporated him into the passing game much more than the Bills ever did, and it resulted in his most yards from scrimmage (1,438). He's averaged a subpar 3.9 YPC throughout his career and was a dreadful 3-of-17 from the goal line last year. The 17 attempts are an encouraging sign for 2008, but he's converted just 23 percent of his goal line looks over the past three years, so he needs a high volume to record TDs. Since his rookie season, he's averaged just six scores per year, and he's still not a huge help in the passing game, which limits his upside. McGahee is a safe pick, as rookie Ray Rice is his only real competition for touches, and new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has produced huge numbers from his running back over the past few seasons in San Diego and Miami. The Ravens' defense should bounce back, and while it was hurt by Jonathan Ogden's retirement, the offensive line is an improving unit. Still, the team's big problem is at quarterback, which could really hinder McGahee's numbers.

It’s unclear if Buffalo’s offense was holding him back, or if McGahee just isn’t ever going to live up to the hype surrounding him after coming out of the University of Miami. One thing is certain, McGahee is coming off consecutive disappointing seasons, and the Bills were happy to deal him for multiple draft picks. While Buffalo’s offense likely limited him somewhat, McGahee has been an average NFL running back since coming into the league, scoring just 11 touchdowns in his last 30 games and averaging 3.9 YPC for his career. He also offers nothing as a receiver, catching just 18 balls last season. McGahee now joins a Baltimore team with a strong defense and a commitment to run, but the Ravens rushing offense ranked just 25th last season, averaging a 31st-ranked 3.4 YPC. Musa Smith figures to take over on third downs, further limiting McGahee’s fantasy potential. With an aging Steve McNair clearly in decline (6.5 YPA last season), the Ravens offense shouldn’t be too tough to defend.

There’s never been any doubt that McGahee could talk the talk; from his sniping at being forced to caddy for Travis Henry during his first healthy NFL campaign to his declaration last year that he was better than LaDainian Tomlinson, McGahee seems to have an inexhaustible supply of confidence. He needs that self confidence playing for the Bills though, as the team’s offense has been a disorganized mess during his Buffalo tenure. If you watch McGahee play he seems to have the skills to justify that confidence, as he’s both quick and fast, and isn’t afraid to put his head down and fight for tough yards. The numbers tell a different story, however. He did gain more than 1,200 rushing yards last year, but his 3.8 YPC doesn’t even qualify as mediocre, and even in his fantasy breakout during the second half of 2004, he managed only 4.2 YPC. He was also terrible in the red zone. Whereas in his rookie season he had a reasonable 19.0 percent red-zone conversion rate (12-for-63), last year he was just 7.6 percent (5-for-66) inside the 20 and an abysmal 19.0 percent (4-for-21) inside the five. He didn’t battle through any serious injuries (in fact, he has yet to miss a game for the Bills since coming back from the knee injury that ended his college career), either; he simply didn’t produce. Quarterback concerns dominate the headlines in Buffalo, but another lackluster season from McGahee could get the focus turned back on him, and not in a good way. 2006 could very well be McGahee’s put up or shut up season. The skills are there, but watch him closely in the preseason to see how his line is looking and if the Bills show any signs of improvement in the passing game.

After starting the season behind Travis Henry, McGahee took over the job in Week 8 and never looked back. If you take McGahee’s numbers for Weeks 8-17, add the Miami game in Week 6 when Henry was hurt and prorate them over a 16-game season, you get 1,455 yards and 19 touchdowns. On the downside, McGahee averaged just 4.0 yards per carry in those games (though the Bills faced several of the league’s top run defenses in that span including Baltimore, New England, Pittsburgh and the Jets), and he wasn’t a big factor as a receiver, partially owing to his below-average route-running skills. McGahee has good size and plenty of speed, but his high per-game touchdown output was more a product of the Bills giving him chances inside the five than McGahee’s proficiency around the goal line. Buffalo gave McGahee the third-most goal line carries (26) of any back in the league in just 11 starts, but he converted only nine of those for scores (35 percent). Of the 14 backs that got 15 or more goal-line carries, McGahee’s percentage ranked 10th. Nonetheless, given Buffalo’s defense-and-running-game oriented style of play, McGahee should see a heavy workload this season both in general and in close, so the opportunities should be there again.

Don’t kid yourself that McGahee will unseat Travis Henry right away. He’s got a bright future in this league, but we’re still confident Henry will be the first option in most situations, unless injured. McGahee is a nice sleeper pick in deep leagues and one of the more valuable No. 2 backs. If you're trying to get an early gauge on the Bills' RB situation, think of it in terms of Pittsburgh during its good runs a few years ago. The Bills will probably be a run-heavy team with one trailblazer (Henry) coupled with dependence on a capable sub (McGahee). McGahee looked crisp with his runs and his cuts in spring practices.

Don’t kid yourself that McGahee will unseat Travis Henry right away. He’s got a bright future in this league, but we’re still confident Henry will be the first option in most situations, unless injured. McGahee is a nice sleeper pick in deep leagues and one of the more valuable No. 2 backs. If you're trying to get an early gauge on the Bills' RB situation, think of it in terms of Pittsburgh during its good runs a few years ago. The Bills will probably be a run-heavy team with one trailblazer (Henry) coupled with dependence on a capable sub (McGahee). McGahee looked crisp with his runs and his cuts in spring practices.