Shaun Alexander

A broken foot derailed Alexander’s season last year, causing him to miss six games outright and lose effectiveness in a few more. He also fumbled six times (losing three) and averaged a career-worst 3.6 YPC. The good news is the foot injury Alexander suffered was in no way related to the mileage he’s incurred throughout his career, but is rather, an isolated incident that he should be fully recovered from entering 2007. There’s still plenty to be discouraged about, however. Alexander gives you almost nothing in the passing game (27 receptions combined over the last two years), and Seattle’s offense appears to be in the decline. The loss of Steve Hutchinson was felt dramatically, and Walter Jones wasn’t his usual dominant self last season, either. Combine that with the departure of Darrell Jackson and Jerramy Stevens, and Seattle’s once-feared offensive unit no longer looks so intimidating. Now that he’s 30-years old, Alexander’s best days are behind him. Remember, he’s been worked extremely hard throughout his career, including last year, when he was given 252 carries in 10 games, a 403-carry pace. That he finished strong in the postseason suggests he’s not completely done, and Alexander faces no competition for touches in Seattle’s backfield. The NFC West is also defensively challenged, giving him six potentially favorable matchups at a minimum.

Alexander had a season for the ages in 2005. His 1,880 rushing yards rank as the 9th highest single-season total in league history, while his 28 touchdowns broke Priest Holmes’ all-time record. He had six 140+ yard rushing games and eight games with multiple TDs, but he also had five other games with 100+ yards and only failed to score in two games, a far cry from previous seasons when all his production seemed to be packed into a handful of weeks. Alexander’s 2005 TD explosion came mostly at the goal line – his three rushing TDs from outside the red zone, and six between the five and 20, are comparable numbers to those posted by other elite RBs. Those 24 red-zone touchdowns came on just 69 carries, an outstanding 34.8 percent conversion rate. That nose for the end zone has made him incredibly valuable in scoring leagues, as Alexander hasn’t scored fewer than 14 TDs on the ground, or 16 total, since becoming Seattle’s feature back in 2001. Moreover, Alexander isn’t just a one-dimensional scoring machine. He’s increased his yardage total and yards per carry for four straight seasons (from 1,175/4.0 in 2002 to 1,880/5.1 in 2005). He’s a powerful runner with a great burst, making him a threat to do damage in the secondary any time he finds a hole. Led by Walter Jones, the Seahawks offensive line has also done an excellent job of providing him with those holes. The loss of Pro Bowl left guard Steve Hutchinson will hurt a little, but the unit will remain among the NFL’s best. There are other things to consider with Alexander. He continues to see fewer touches in the passing game, catching just 15 passes for a mere 78 yards and one TD in 2005. He’s also seen an incredible workload over the past five seasons, averaging over 330 carries a year since becoming a starter. Modern diet and training techniques may allow players to stay effective for a longer period of their career, but the 2000-carry plateau looms for Alexander in the second half of 2006, a point at which even backs the caliber of Emmitt Smith have seen their production drop. Alexander was also playing for a payday last season and now he’s got it. For a player known, rightly or wrongly, as a bit of a slacker, there’s a chance he’ll coast on his millions. Finally, everything, including a cakewalk schedule, improved play by the team’s defense to build second half leads and outstanding blocking from the offensive line, came together perfectly for Alexander to see those extra goal-line opportunities last season.

The NFL’s most consistent touchdown machine over the last four years, Alexander thankfully settled his contentious contract situation in time for training camp after an uncertain offseason in which he skipped spring minicamps because he was stuck with the franchise tag. Back in the fold, Alexander is as good a bet for fantasy success as any back in the league. Since 2002, he’s increased his yards per carry and his total yardage each year, culminating in a 4.8-yard average and 1,696 yards last season, though the yardage increase was largely offset by his decline in receptions and receiving yards. While Alexander has always been a good source of yards from scrimmage, regardless of how he gets it, his ability to hit the hole quickly and power through it makes him an especially effective runner in close. Alexander’s touchdown totals for the last four years read: 16, 18, 16, 20, which makes him the only back in league history to top 16 scores for four consecutive seasons. While the Seahawks weren’t bad at getting Alexander chances in close – 54 carries inside the 20 (9th), 18 carries inside the five (tied for 9th) – his 16 rushing touchdowns were second in the league thanks to a league-best 26 percent red zone conversion rate (among backs with 30 or more chances). Moreover, Alexander was fourth in conversion rate (among backs with 10 or more chances) on carries from inside the five, scoring on 10 of 18 tries. This put him in a tie with Priest Holmes and edged out goal-line specialist Jerome Bettis. In 2003, Alexander got 22 chances inside the five (4th in the league), and scored on 10 of those.

Better in fantasy than he is in real life, Alexander didn’t run as hard as his coaches would have liked in 2003 and could be jettisoned next year (when his contract expires) for the younger, cheaper Maurice Morris. Remember that the Seahawks reportedly offered Alexander to the Redskins for Champ Bailey before Bailey was shipped off for Portis. The risk of a healthy Alexander losing carries to Morris in 2004 is tied to the team’s record. If Seattle struggles, the organization might want to give Morris an extended starting audition. But Seattle is likely to be a competitive team, so don’t overstate this risk. Alexander is in a very good situation to score TDs. Seattle has given him 65 carries inside the opponents’ 10 yard line the past two seasons, including 33 last year (as good as it gets outside of Priest Holmes). Alexander has been able to punch it in from the doorstep 12 times each of these years. Seattle ranked a pedestrian 15th in converting all short-yardage runs. So Alexander’s scoring success is mostly due to coach Mike Holmgren’s run tendency inside the 10-yard line (only 22 passes there last year). Alexander lacked stamina in ’03, averaging 3.6 yards per carry in the second half and 3.6 per run after his 10th carry of the game (he was well over 5.0 per rush on his first 10 carries and during the first half of games). This stamina problem was not in evidence in 2002.

Alexander will probably go in the first round in everyone's fantasy draft this year, with good reason (he had 1,635 total yards last year to go with his 18 scores), but it's not like he doesn't come with baggage. For one thing, he was used a lot less as a receiver when Seattle's vertical passing game took off in the final third of the year. For another, he's not the most durable player going (he battled ankle, foot, back, forearm, finger, knee and eye injuries at different times in 2002, though he still played in every game). The Seahawks also like Maurice Morris a lot, so if Alexander does anything to get on Mike Holmgren's bad side, we may see Morris get thrown into the mix a bit more. All that said, we're still expecting Alexander to have another banner year in 2003, and we won't be afraid to take him in the first round, depending on which other RBs are already off the board.