Marvin Harrison

Say what you like about him but we’re quite sure Harrison has never lost anyone a fantasy league. Peyton Manning’s favorite target enters the season with eight consecutive years of 80-plus catches, 1,100-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns. And if you invested in him last season, you had the most productive wideout in fantasy football, at least in leagues that don’t include distance scoring. While Harrison isn’t one of the game’s elite deep threats, he did manage four catches of 40 or more yards, and beat his career receiving average by a full yard. Even so, Harrison made most of his money in the red zone last year, where he brought in a league-leading nine touchdowns on 19 targets (eighth). In fact, Harrison got eight looks at the goal line (third) and converted all but one for scores, easily leading the league in that department (teammate Reggie Wayne and Darrell Jackson tied for second with four). At age 35, Harrison still has good speed, and his excellent quickness, terrific hands and precise route running make him a difficult one-on-one match-up for defensive backs. At 6-0, 185, he’s not going to overpower or run through defenders after the catch, but he’s still elusive in the open field due to his ability to make quick cuts and change direction. On the negative side, Wayne had more red-zone and goal-line looks than Harrison last year, and it’s unrealistic to expect Harrison to convert such a high percentage into scores going forward – in 2005 he converted just six of 26 from inside the 20 and one of six from inside the five. While he’s still at the top of his game and playing with one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history, Harrison is going to experience an age-related decline in the next several seasons, and when it happens, there isn’t always a lot of warning. Nonetheless, that Harrison’s yards per catch actually went up in the second half (15.8) and so did his touchdown total (seven) makes us inclined to think that 2008 or 2009 will be the year he loses his elite status.

The Colts have diversified their offense the last couple seasons, and as a result, Harrison’s catches, targets and yards have dropped significantly for three years running. His 132 targets were good for 15th in the league, behind Laveranues Coles and just ahead of Donte’ Stallworth and Eric Moulds. Harrison had just three plays of 40-plus yards last year, and six over the last two seasons, so he’s not routinely making the big play these days, either. Nonetheless, Harrison tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with 12, despite sitting out Week 16 entirely and playing only sparingly in Week 17 with the Colts playoff seed wrapped up. In fact, Harrison easily has the most receiving touchdowns in the league over the past two years with 27, and he’s run his streak of double-digit scores to a whopping seven seasons. If you’re wondering how he’s done this despite the declining looks and lack of big plays, look no further than his 26 red-zone targets (tied for second), six of which went for scores. (Harrison led the league in red zone looks in 2004 with 28). Indy also looked to Harrison six times from inside the five, though only one of those resulted in a score. The bottom line is that Peyton Manning looks to Harrison from in close, and as long as that continues, double-digit scores are a safe bet. At age 34, Harrison isn’t one of the league’s fastest receivers, but he has excellent quickness, runs precise routes and is a master at finding open space. Harrison is elusive after the catch, but his lack of breakaway speed or tackle-breaking size means he’s not often going to score from distance. Harrison’s hands are among the best in the game and you’ll almost never see him drop a catchable ball. Harrison had two minor surgeries this offseason, one on his hand and another on his elbow, but is expected to be 100 percent healthy for the start of training camp.

When two other receivers on your team go for more than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns and even the running back on your team catches 51 passes, there’s usually not a lot left over. But in Indianapolis, where passing records fell like the Taliban, Harrison still managed to see 142 passes thrown his way and hauled in 15 for scores, good for second in the league. But there is some cause for concern here as Harrison was just 11th in targets, finishing behind players like Eric Moulds, Isaac Bruce and Drew Bennett. As a result, he caught just 86 passes, his lowest total since 1998. Given that Harrison’s yards-per-catch numbers have always been modest – and last season he averaged just 12.9 – his days of getting 1,300-plus yards per season might well be behind him. And Harrison will turn 33 in August, so his considerable speed and quickness are presumably in decline. On the bright side, Harrison was still Peyton Manning’s top target, and as such, his floor might be higher than that of any receiver on the board. And with the continued emergence of Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley, Harrison isn’t likely to face as many double-teams as other top receivers. Harrison still has very good speed, is quick off the line and runs routes with uncanny precision. He has excellent hands and good body control, but at 6-0, 175 pounds, he does not present a physical mismatch for most of the league’s defensive backs a la Moss and Owens. As such, Harrison is not a great goal-line receiver, converting just 2-of-7 attempts inside the five. Still, the Colts do look to Harrison a lot from inside the red zone – his 28 targets were the most out of any receiver in the NFL last year.

Expect the physically unimposing Harrison to be helped more than most receivers by the NFL-mandated focus on eliminating hand-checking by DBs (in fact, Harrison is the poster boy for this change). There’s little chance of Harrison matching his productivity of 2002, however. Last year, Harrison was targeted just 142 times, one less pass than he actually caught in ’02. The emergence of Reggie Wayne, emphasis on Edgerrin James and presence of two receiving tight ends will similarly suppress Harrison’s targets in ’04. Still, this bevy of weapons helped Peyton Manning connect with Harrison on a very impressive two-thirds of those attempts. Owners need to root for less possession routes and more downfield opportunities. Of his 94 receptions, 57 were caught between one and 10 yards downfield (he caught 81 such passes in 2002). But Harrison shined when Manning let ’er rip last year; of Harrison’s 30 catches between 11 and 40 yards downfield, 10 went for scores. Harrison’s TD total was damaged by Manning’s over-reliance on the run inside the 10-yard line (just one reception for no TDs in 2002 after scoring four times on short throws in ’02). In fact, Reggie Wayne had more red-zone catches last year than Harrison. Owners should not draft Harrison for his upside, but rather for the solid expectation of 10-plus scores and 1,400 receiving yards.

Although Harrison's numbers have always been amazing, last season probably was his best year. He shattered the NFL record for receptions in a season with 143 -- 20 more than Herman Moore's previous mark -- and his 1,722 yards were the fourth-highest total in history. Harrison's TD total was a modest 11, a little down for him. Harrison's average year the last four seasons reads: 117 catches, 1,580 yards, 14 touchdowns. This guy has been money in the bank since his first monster year back in 1999. Harrison doesn't have the touchdown potential of Terrell Owens, or the speed and staggering upside of Randy Moss, but that's not a big deal. What Harrison has over those two other stars is work ethic -- no receiver spends more time honing his craft with his QB than Harrison does with Peyton Manning -- and reliability -- he hasn't missed a game in four years, for any reason.