Dawson tied for fourth in field-goal attempts last season, but he also tied for the NFL lead with eight misses and was 23 of 26 on extra-point attempts. While he did hit four of five tries from 50-plus yards, the Cardinals wisely opted to bring in competition for the 43-year-old this offseason, signing undrafted rookie Matthew McCrane. Don't be surprised if McCrane wins the job as part of Arizona's rebuilding effort.
After tying for the fewest field-goal attempts by a full-time kicker last season, Dawson should get a big fantasy boost this year with his move from San Francisco to Arizona. The Cardinals' offense is significantly better than the bottom-feeding San Francisco offense, and while Arizona's kicker last year, Chandler Catanzaro, had only 28 field-goal tries, he attempted 13 more extra points than Dawson. With David Johnson in the backfield and a healthy Carson Palmer, the Cardinals should give Dawson more scoring opportunities than he's had in some time.
Dawson played a big role in putting points on the board for San Francisco last year, as his 92 points accounted for 38.7 percent (third-most in the league) of the 49ers' total. Unfortunately, the Niners were the lowest-scoring team in the NFL (and they were 37 points worse than the 31st-ranked Cowboys), making Dawson a total afterthought for fantasy purposes. They brought in head coach Chip Kelly to turn it around, and while it's worth noting that the Eagles scored the second-most kicker points in 2014 with Kelly in charge, there's little reason to think the 49ers can replicate that kind of offensive output right away. Dawson's accuracy is a plus, as he's hit at least 88 percent of his field-goal attempts in three of the last four years, but the volume of opportunities will limit his fantasy upside.
Coming off 140 points last season, Dawson struggled to find scoring opportunities as the 49ers' offense crumbled over the second half of the season. He watched his field-goal attempts drop by five and his PATs by 11. Dawson also didn't help himself, posting his lowest field-goal percentage since 2006. Most of his struggles came from long distance as he was 11-of-16 from 40-plus yards. However, he still made six 50-yarders. The 49ers don't seem to have improved offensively this offseason, and while the addition of wideout Torrey Smith should help, a new coaching staff leaves questions about what kind of unit will take the field.
Freed from the fantasy purgatory of Cleveland after signing with the 49ers last offseason, Dawson accumulated 140 points, smashing his previous career-high of 120 set back in 2007. The 39-year-old showed his typically strong accuracy in converting 32-of-36 chances, and remains one of the league’s most devastating long-range specialists. He’s gone 18-for-21 from 50-plus yards over the last three seasons, including missiles from 55 and 56 yards in 2013. With a supporting cast that looks to be as strong as any in the league, Dawson doesn’t appear headed for any major downturn in productivity in Year 2 in San Francisco, even at his advancing age.
After toiling in relative obscurity in Cleveland the last 14 seasons, Dawson will get his first shot at playing for a contender, and by extension, his first chance at becoming a top-tier fantasy commodity. With a field goal success rate that has dipped below 80 percent in only three seasons of his career, the 38-year old has remained highly accurate as he's aged, posting a career-high 93.5-percent rate in 2012. Dawson’s also a prolific long-range specialist (7-for-7 last season from 50-plus), but the move to San Francisco will especially benefit his PAT numbers. Former Niners kicker David Akers averaged 3.2 PATs per game over Colin Kaepernick's 10 starts last season, a significant jump up from Dawson’s 1.8 with the Browns.
Although Dawson scored merely 92 points last season, he made them count for those who owned him, netting seven field goals of more than 50 yards after not hitting a 50-yarder the previous two seasons. Dawson has been adequate when given the opportunity, as he’s converted more than 80 percent of his field goals the last six seasons. However, with rookie Brandon Weeden or incumbent Colt McCoy expected to lead an uninspiring offense, the Browns will likely struggle to move the ball.
Dawson’s 97 points in 2010 were far from impressive, but the Browns might have finally found some offensive promise in running back Peyton Hillis and quarterback Colt McCoy. And that will help Dawson as much as anything. The Browns ranked 31st in the league in scoring (16.9 ppg) but still improved their point total from 2009 and their yards per play by nearly a full yard. The Browns had trouble sustaining drives, though, running just 927 offensive plays, 31st in the NFL. Dawson just doesn't get enough opportunities. He was 23-of-28 last year and converted 28 PATs. He hasn't made a 50-yarder in two seasons. The Browns might again make strides, but it likely won't be enough to make Dawson a fantasy consideration.
Dawson missed five games in 2009 but
connected on 17-of-19 field goals and made just
as many extra points he did in 2008 — 18. The
Browns made wholesale changes on their roster
with Jake Delhomme the likely starting quarterback
and Jerome Harrison sharing the rushing
chores with rookie Montario Hardesty. While
the Browns had a strong running game (130
yards per game) last year, it didn’t translate into
points — just 15.3 points per game in 2009
(29th in the league) — due to their lack of
game-breakers in the passing game. The
Browns two leading receivers caught just 34
passes each in 2009, and only Mohamed
Massaquoi broke 500 yards. Even with the
possible upgrade at quarterback, the Browns
offense isn’t likely to help Dawson’s prospects.
The Browns were a disaster last season, and Dawson suffered for it. He attempted a career-high 36 field goals, but the Browns gave him just 18 PATs, 25 fewer than in 2007. The Browns reached the end zone once in the last six games. This season, Kellen Winslow is gone, and the quarterback situation is in flux. A new coach in Eric Mangini adds to the uncertainty. Still, it’s reasonable to expect the Browns to improve on their 36.8 percent red-zone TD-conversion rate (31st in the NFL).
The NFL had some really bad offenses in
2007, but, unexpectedly, Cleveland wasn't
among them. The Browns have a rising star in
quarterback Derek Anderson, a seemingly revitalized Jamal Lewis and one of the NFL's
best young receivers in Braylon Edwards, all of
which allowed Dawson to post career-highs in
points (120) and extra points made (42). Dawson
should be a solid option again this year, but
don't expect many field goals beyond 50 yards
(just 3-of-4 the last four years combined). Dawson
also has three potential bad weather games
in December but was 17-of-21 (81 percent) in
cold/windy/rainy conditions last season.
Dawson struggled from beyond 40 yards last season, making just 6-of-13 kicks en route to his worst season since his rookie year in 1999. Dawson is a career 82.1 percent kicker so his percentage could rebound in 2007. However, the Browns will struggle to score with the inexperienced tandem of Charlie Frye and Brady Quinn battling for the starting quarterback spot. While Jamal Lewis and rookie offensive tackle Joe Thomas should help the offense, it could be several years before the Browns are one of the NFL’s better offensive teams
Dawson was second in the NFL, making 93.1 percent of his attempts in 2005, and brings a career 83.9-percent conversion rate to the 2006 season. The Browns haven’t given him a lot of opportunities – the team scored just 19 TDs in 2005, and Dawson’s averaged 27.8 FGA/year in the last five seasons. Despite the offensive limitations, he’s scored 100 points in three of the last four seasons.
Dawson returns for a seventh season with the Browns, a team that has never given him the chance to be a top-tier fantasy kicker. He scored 100 points in 2004 when he had the most attempts (29) of his career. There’s some uncertainty with Cleveland’s offense this season, and that makes Dawson a risky play despite his 81.8 percent career accuracy.
Dawson suffered a season-ending arm injury in 2003 – an ugly season overall for Cleveland. The Browns scored just 25 touchdowns (27th in NFL) and gave their kickers a sub-par 28 FGA. In their five seasons of existence, the Browns are averaging just 22.0 FGA per season. That’s just not enough for a viable fantasy kicker, as Dawson has finished below 100 points (4.9 ppg) in all of those seasons. He can hit ’em (81.6 percent career), he just hasn’t had enough opportunities.
Dawson scored 100 points in 2002, which was just shy of what we expected, but still it represented improvement. While his accuracy dropped off from 88 percent to 78.6 percent in 2002, he hit 2 of 3 from beyond the 50. With the emergence of William Green, the Browns will be primarily a running team, which seems to lend itself to more field-goal attempts than passing. He likely will reach 100 points and then some in 2003. He could reach 110 to 115 points if the Browns are successful in running coach Butch Davis' offense.
