Ahman Green

Green signed with the Texans in the offseason, where a familiar zone-blocking scheme is implemented. Green is 30 and is in decline, averaging less than 4.0 YPC in seven of the final eight weeks last year. In Houston, he’ll run behind a poor offensive line and probably split time with Ron Dayne. Matt Schaub should upgrade the quarterback position, but it’s still a below-average offense. Since Green showed serious signs of deterioration during the second half last year and is not a good bet to play in 16 games, temper your expectations.

Green blew out his quadriceps tendon in 2005 and missed 11 games, putting his NFL future in some jeopardy. The Packers don’t have many other options at running back (Samkon Gado was a great story with a great name, but as an undrafted FA with a small school pedigree, he’ll face a continual uphill battle for opportunities) so Green should get a few more chances to prove he has something left. The tank could be all but empty although Green was never a great red zone back (13.3% conversion rate, 14-for-105, in ’03-’04) so if he’s lost a step and can no longer be a home run threat he won’t be bringing much to the table. Don’t expect great, or even good, things from him, but raw opportunity is sometimes all a player needs to return decent fantasy value.

Coming off a season for the ages in 2003 (20 total TDs, 1,883 rushing yards, 50 receptions), Green was nagged by a bruised knee, a sore Achilles’ tendon and bruised ribs last year to wind up with his lightest workload since 1999. And while the nagging injuries could be a sign that his career workload (1,528 carries) is starting to catch up with him, Green was just fine on a per-carry basis, managing 4.5 yards per rush, which is roughly in line with his career average. Moreover, Green reeled off a 90-yard touchdown run against Dallas in Week 7, so it’s not as if he’s lost his breakaway speed. The 6-0, 218-pound Green hits the hole hard and runs well between the tackles. He’s also a good receiver, with decent hands and good elusiveness after the catch, though his receptions have declined every year since 2000, when he caught 73 balls. Green, who was a monster inside the five yard line in 2003, scoring on 7-of-12 carries, took a step back last season, but wasn’t terrible, scoring on 4-of-9 attempts. While there’s no real concern regarding Green’s conversion rate, that he had just 12 goal-line attempts in 355 carries two seasons ago and nine in 259 carries last year shows how infrequently Mike Sherman likes to run the ball near the goal line. To put that in perspective, consider that the Chargers’ LaDainian Tomlinson had 31 goal line carries last year, and even the Giants’ Tiki Barber had 15. Green Bay’s loss of both starting guards, Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera, is also a concern. In addition, the Packers re-signed Green’s backup, Najeh Davenport, who averaged a healthy 5.1 yards per carry and could spell Green occasionally.

After struggling with asthma and knee and thigh injuries in 2002, Green was healthy from start to finish last year, regaining his seemingly lost explosiveness and racking up big yardage on a whopping 405 carries. Like Jamal Lewis, Green runs very well in all directions and dominates his historically weak defensive division. Brett Favre’s ridiculous goal-line passing (45 TDs on passes inside the 10-yard line the past three years) costs Green easy TDs, but he made the most of his limited inside-the-10 opportunities in ’03 (11 TDs in just 22 attempts). Despite the Packers’ overall effectiveness in converting short-yardage runs last year (second best in the league with a 79 percent success rate), the Packers threw the ball more inside the 10 than Green ran it. Compare that to the Chiefs, who ran inside the 10 twice as often as they threw, despite finishing in the middle of the pack in overall short-yardage rushing efficiency. Fortunately, Green got some of those passes, too, converting both of his catches inside the 10 into scores. Green was successful on only 6 of 19 attempts inside the 10 in 2002 and 3 of 18 in 2001, but the Packers’ overall success on power runs tells us his conversion rate in ’04 will be closer to 50 percent. Green’s 2003 workload is a concern as Green runs bigger than he is, and his hard-running style will shorten his career. But owners can expect another year or two of peak productivity.

Green may never score enough to be an elite fantasy player – while he's got 33 touchdowns over the last three seasons, the dominant running backs in this game score at a higher rate than that. Green had to settle for a modest nine TDs in 2002, as the Packers threw more in the red zone than any other playoff team. Hey, that's life with Brett Favre running the show. Green also sat out a couple of games last year with a dinged up knee, but given that he didn't miss any time in the two years prior, we're not going to slap the injury-prone tag on him. Instead we're going to pencil him in for another 1,500 to 1,800 total yards and another 8 to 10 touchdowns – which should be good for a spot in the early second round of your draft.