Kerry Collins

The biggest slight you can levy against Vince Young is that his level of play had sunk to such depths that a barely adequate Kerry Collins seems championship-caliber and rejuvenated by comparison. Collins did one thing well last year, limit picks. But he did that by limiting big plays. He threw 12 TDs in 415 attempts, which is awful, and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt. Anyone who you can project under 6.5 is not even worth rostering in fantasy because TD tosses correlate very well to YPA, and that level gets you 15-to-20 TD passes four times out of five. Even when the Titans open it up a little, Collins is ordinary – 7.2 YPA on 138 first-down passes. The great arm is now only in evidence during pre-game warm-ups. On 95 11-to-20 yard throws (from scrimmage), Collins had a 63 QB rating and completed just 39 percent of heaves. Sure, some of this is the fault of an admittedly sub-par wide receiver corps. But Collins certainly does not help matters at this stage of his career (age 37). New WR additions Kenny Britt (Rutgers) and Nate Washington (Steelers) should be expected to struggle as do most rookie and free-agent wide receivers, respectively. The Titans spent a lot of time in the red zone, but prefer to run there, as Collins’ 47 red-zone attempts were 19th and his eight TDs, 24th. Compare that to league leader Kurt Warner (99 attempts, 25 TDs), and you see the difference between a ham and egg fantasy QB and one who offers Grade-A Choice returns.

Collins was a very valuable backup last season when Vince Young was injured. Collins can still throw the ball effectively when given time in the pocket. Expect him to be the backup again in 2008.

Collins will be the backup to Vince Young and should only see the field if Young is injured or in mop-up duty.

He’ll turn up somewhere this year, but it's just a matter of where. There’s a sense he can be a Drew Bledsoe in the right situation (whether that’s a compliment or an insult is up for debate). But Collins didn’t show evidence of his supposedly big arm in 2005, with a 66 QB rating on 129 11-to-20 yard throws (it was 81 on these throws in 2004). So, Collins is, at best, like the pitcher with the impressive radar-gun reading who keeps getting hammered. Worse news for Collins is his inability to make teams pay for blitzing. Last year, he had just a 67 rating on 168 attempts against the blitz. He similarly struggled vs. the blitz in ’03 (he was average vs. it in ’04). So there are reasons why he was released and has spent so much time unsigned.

After being unceremoniously shown the door by the Giants last spring, Collins must feel as if he’s hit the lottery in Oakland. Not only does he enter the season with virtually no competition for the starting job – Rich Gannon is expected to retire due to a neck injury – but the Raiders also got him the most explosive receiver in the NFL. Randy Moss joins the physically imposing Jerry Porter and speedy Ronald Curry, who is returning from an Achilles’ injury, to form one of most skilled and dynamic receiving corps in the league. Moreover, the Raiders offense incorporates plenty of vertical passing, which should allow it to take full advantage of Moss’ speed and leaping ability, Porter’s size and Collins’ cannon for an arm. Collins won’t make plays with his feet and is a sitting duck in the pocket, but when he has protection, he’s accurate and can get the ball downfield. Collins has put up good numbers with less in the past, throwing for 4,076 yards in 2002 and 22 touchdowns in 2000 with the Giants, but he’s never put it all together fantasy wise. Last season, he came on strong in the final eight games, passing for 2,036 yards and 16 touchdowns, but had to throw 289 passes to do so, putting his YPA at a fairly pedestrian 7.04. The bottom line is that with the Raiders’ suspect defense (31st in points allowed), and a scheme and receiving corps perfectly suited to his talents, Collins has all the ingredients in place for a career year.

The Giants released Collins in late April, and the Raiders signed him shortly thereafter. At press time, he was slated to be the backup to Rich Gannon, but Collins is a better fit for Norv Turner’s downfield offense, and rumors have swirled about Gannon’s possible release. Collins is easily flustered and needs to be well-protected so he can take five-step drops and fire those skinny posts that he throws better than anyone in football. Collins obviously has a lot to prove in ’04. But he’ll never be an elite fantasy QB because he simply does not throw with enough accuracy (about 17 percent of his throws were poor in each of the last two seasons, which puts him squarely in the bottom third of NFL passers). If the rookies acclimate quickly, the Raiders have a chance to have an above average NFL line. But the new skill talent is a large step down from Collins’ last couple years in New York, and coach Norv Turner has never had a QB generate top-tier fantasy stats.

Collins's 2002 season took off when head coach Jim Fassel took over the play calling from offensive coordinator Sean Payton. Collins tied for the NFC lead with 13 touchdowns in the second half of the year, his 4,073 passing yards represented a new career high, and he rolled up 342 yards passing and four touchdowns in the Wild Card loss at San Francisco. The Giants still have all their major puzzle pieces in place on offense (Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey and a pass catching back in Tiki Barber), so Collins figures to be decent again. And Collins is very unlikely to get hurt – he hasn't missed a start in three years – because he's big (6-5), durable and a very reluctant runner and scrambler.