Corey Dillon

For the second time in three years Dillon missed a large chunk of the season due to injury, playing in only 11 games and posting the worst YPC of his career. At 31 years old and having shouldered a heavy workload over his career, the end of the road would seem to be approaching for Dillon – something the Patriots obviously considered when they used a first round pick on Laurence Maroney. The end may not be here quite yet, however. Dillon has been working hard this offseason, and his red zone numbers last season were still excellent (a 35.1% conversion rate, 13-for-35, inside the 20 and an incredible 9-for-11 inside the 5). Even if he isn’t able to shoulder a full load any more, any sort of time share with Maroney should see the veteran getting the majority of the carries and all the goal line action. One more good season from Dillon seems a reasonable proposition.

Dillon wasn’t merely a good signing for the Patriots – he would have been a legitimate MVP candidate had Peyton Manning not rewritten so much of the NFL record book. Dillon rushed for 1,635 yards and scored 13 touchdowns in 15 games. His 109-yard per game average was tops in the league among players with nine or more games, and he averaged a healthy 4.7 yards per carry. Dillon wasn’t great from in close, however, as he converted just 9-of-27 goal-line carries. (That conversion rate puts him 11th among the 14 backs with 15 or more goal-line carries, behind McGahee and ahead of Clinton Portis). And in 2003, Dillon converted just 2-of-7 carries inside the five for the Bengals. But on the positive side, the 27 attempts the Patriots provided him were second only to Tomlinson’s 31 for the Chargers. And his 80 red-zone carries were second only to Tomlinson’s 87. In other words, Dillon’s large number of opportunities obscured the fact that he wasn’t very efficient inside the five. But we wouldn’t be overly worried about Dillon’s red-zone struggles – after all, he’s a big, physical back who likes to run between the tackles and punish defenders, and he averaged nearly five yards a pop last year. Of some concern is Dillon’s monstrous workload over his career – a whopping 2,210 carries, good for 18th all time – but if he hasn’t broken down yet, we almost have to put him in that Curtis Martin-Emmitt Smith category where he’s just somehow able to take it. Over his eight-year career, most of which had him carrying the ball a ton, he has missed just six games.

After years of teasing and ultimately disappointing his owners, Dillon fell off the fantasy cliff last year. Can he regain his form despite his high mileage (1,865 carries)? That’s doubtful. But playing for the Patriots is a big help. And those considering Dillon will be heartened by the faith the esteemed New England front office showed in his football future by trading for him. At best, Dillon will be a yardage workhorse who struggles in the TD departments (just 7-for-35 in converting attempts inside the 10 since 2002, or about seven less than would be expected from the better goal-line runners). The Patriots were a poor team in converting short-yardage runs last year (21st overall), and Dillon is unlikely to improve them much in this regard (the Bengals were 27th).

Dillon had seven touchdowns last year, not bad, but not really acceptable for someone who gets as many carries and opportunities as he does. Still, we can't help but think perhaps 2003 is the year Dillon throws up superstar numbers. The Bengals offense was significantly improved over the final third of last season – Jon Kitna and Chad Johnson did wonders for the passing game – so Dillon won't have to worry about seeing all those seven- and eight-man fronts he's used to. Dillon is also coming off a career-high 43 catches, as the Bengals have worked on getting him more involved in the passing game.