Chad Pennington

The drafting of slash WR/QB Pat White (West Virginia) assures more of the gimmicky Wildcat offense in 2009. The league caught on to it as the season progressed, of course, but the Dolphins apparently feel it can be revived with a real running and receiving threat at QB. This is all terrible news for Pennington owners, if not for the Dolphins. Even if he’s on the field for these plays, Pennington will not see the ball most likely. And he runs a great risk of injury because teams started taking running shots at Pennington, which you’re allowed to do to a wide receiver (which is where he lines up in that formation), given the NFL jam rules. Look at it this way, Pennington played as efficiently as possible for him last year. His 7.7 YPA is upper echelon. The red-zone TD efficiency of one every 3.7 attempts was fourth best (better than Kurt Warner’s). Even the 95.9 rating on FAS throws (11-to-20 yards from scrimmage) was top 10. And he was even allowed to make those throws on 27 percent of attempts – the third-highest rate in football and proof that what passes today as downfield throwing for even weaker-armed QBs is often a matter of will and execution rather than raw arm strength. Still, with all that, Pennington couldn’t get to 20 passing TDs in 2008, even with good health the whole year. And when 20 TDs are the ceiling, you have to gamble elsewhere on a fantasy starter.

Another in the seemingly endless string of QB slashes this year. And as a wise coach once said, "When you have two QBs, you don’t really have any." That certainly seems to be true in the Jets' case. Clemens was groomed as the heir apparent and had a four-star recommendation from QB guru Ron Jaworski of ESPN. But he struggled after ascending to the starting role in the midst of a sorry Jets season. After committing $200 million on free agents this offseason, the Jets clearly are in win-now mode, shocking for a four-win team. That means Pennington has a chance to wrestle the starting job back from Clemens, who will need to show tremendous strides in training camp to hold him off. Pennington is the definition of a caretaker. He'll manage games by taking what the defense gives him, but the defense gives him less and less because he can't attack even the intermediate level – FAS QB rating of 71.7. And a lot of his lobs get picked off not because of poor decision-making but because they hang in the air like a balloon that's slipped out of a child's hand. You can’t give those NFL cheetahs so much time to react. Pennington was about average throughout the red zone in converting throws. The problem was that the Jets were very run oriented there and will only be more so in 2008 after spending those many millions fortifying their offensive line. The plus side is that the offense should be able to venture into the red zone more frequently, and Pennington (or whoever starts) shouldn't be dumped as frequently – once every 10 attempts for Pennington (very bad) and, even worse, once every nine for Clemens.

Pennington is the Jamie Moyer of the NFL, as butterflies sail faster than his spirals. All of the measurables are overrated with QBs. But there are bare-minimum requirements for things like arm strength, and Pennington is dangerously close to that line, if not under it completely. The hope was that he would regain the arm strength he had prior to his two devastating shoulder injuries and the major surgeries that followed. But that seems unrealistic now. Pennington was once Montana-esque in his ability to compensate for his so-so arm with great timing and touch. But those days appear to be gone. During that magical 2002, Pennington was the best intermediate passer in the NFL. But he’s well below average now on 11-to-20 yard passes, and the Jets have put the deep ball in mothballs, throwing just eight percent of all passes more than 20 yards from scrimmage. When Pennington is effective on intermediate routes, it’s over the middle of the field where arm strength isn’t as needed. Teams now dare Pennington to throw the out to either sideline, and he just can’t muster the strength to do so. It’s sad to watch. Unless there’s a miracle recovery, the Jets will have no choice but to turn to Kellen Clemens, a total unknown who reportedly has a big arm and was given a big thumbs up from QB guru Ron Jaworski when the Jets grabbed him in the second round of the 2006 draft.

Pennington was getting comparisons to Joe Montana a few seasons ago, but no one's saying that now. If Pennington can win and hold the starting job in 2006, and stay healthy, it would have to be considered a successful year. He should be one of the last starters selected in one-QB leagues, and in most one-QB groups, you can safely pass over him, at least until he shows something in September. Keep in mind he's coming off shoulder surgery, and his arm strength was never considered a plus to begin with. Smarts can only get you so far in this game.

Even before he strained his right rotator cuff in Week 9, Pennington’s season was disappointing to fantasy owners. Through eight healthy games, he had just 1,502 yards and eight touchdowns, numbers that prorate to just 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns over a full season. Pennington returned from the injury in Week 13, but the Jets continued to pound the ball with Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan rather than look downfield. Much of that had to do with offensive coordinator Paul Hackett’s conservative, run-first scheme, and now that Hackett’s been replaced former Titans coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, who was the architect behind Steve McNair’s big passing seasons as well as Billy Volek’s late-season surge last year, Pennington should get more chances to open things up. And the Jets traded the speedy Santana Moss to reacquire the even faster Laveranues Coles, who with Justin McCareins provides Pennington with two viable downfield weapons. Of course, the Jets project to be strong defensively, so Pennington’s unlikely to be involved in a ton of shootouts, but Heimerdinger’s system, which includes multiple receiver sets and a shotgun formation, should ensure that Pennington’s not just there to hand the ball off this year. Pennington doesn’t have great arm strength, but he’s a poised and accurate passer with good field vision. Pennington’s also great at selling the play-action fake, freezing linebackers and safeties and buying extra room for his receivers. Pennington had rotator cuff surgery in February and was held out of spring practices, but he expects a “normal” training camp and guaranteed he will play in the Jets’ regular-season opener.

You can make a case that Pennington is the NFL's most accurate passer. Only about 11 percent of his throws have been "poor" since becoming the Jets starter, the best figure in the NFL during that period. And he's averaged over 7.5 yards per attempt in his career and has a lifetime passer rating that Peyton Manning has bettered in just one season. But clearly Pennington was not the player last year that he was in 2002. Did defenses catch on? In '02, Pennington completed a remarkable 63 percent of his passes that traveled between 11-20 yards (with a 110 passer rating on those throws). Last year, he was down to 50 percent (64 rating) on those throws. Perhaps the loss of Laveranues Coles to free agency and Wayne Chrebet to injury were too much for Pennington to overcome. The Jets had no receiver who could reliably control the intermediate area of the field, especially after Santana Moss had to contend with the first double-teaming of his pro career. But that's now changed with the Jets acquisition of Justin McCareins, whose size, speed and sure hands were desperately needed in New York. Pennington is money in the red zone, with 25 TD passes and zero INTs there since becoming the Jets starter.

Pennington's 2003 season is in limbo after breaking his left wrist in the third preseason game.