Jake Delhomme

It’s shocking to see that Delhomme’s YPA last year was 7.9. That’s a winning number for fantasy QBs and should correlate to a high TD-per-attempt number even if the Panthers’ most prolific rushing attack significantly cut into Delhomme’s scoring opportunities. However, even the rate of scoring for Delhomme was poor – 21st. And another high YPA QB, Matt Ryan, was 19th. Are these outliers or evidence of a YPA sea change? Not likely – the top five quarterbacks in TD/Attempt all were 7.5 or better, and the league leader in YPA, Philip Rivers, was the league-leader in TD efficiency, too. There’s no question that a heavy run emphasis renders efficiency moot for fantasy scoring purposes. Last year, Delhomme attempted more than 29 passes twice after opening day and threw 22 or less six times. Eight times he was under 200 yards, including a crippling 72 yards (on 27 attempts!) against Oakland in November. He also did not throw more than one TD pass in a game the entire second half of the season. Delhomme did have a fourth-best 102 QB rating on FAS throws (11-to-20 yards from scrimmage). On the negative side, though, was 16.4 percent poor throws, bad enough to get you benched, especially with the memory of that home playoff disaster against the Cardinals still fresh. We studiously note Delhomme was No. 1 in yard per completion at 13.4 (NFL Average was 11.4). Counting on the running game to open up some big plays even if you’re in a league that emphasizes distance scoring is very dicey because there’s no fall back with yardage. Thus, Delhomme, who we’ve always liked more than most, is a borderline backup in standard leagues.

He would have been gold last year, but injured his elbow and needed major surgery. So 2007 was a wasted year. His recovery from Tommy John surgery has gone well, and coach John Fox is confident he'll be ready to roll come training camp. The Panthers endless quest for a No. 2 receiver opposite Steve Smith continued this offseason, with D.J. Hackett signing and Muhsin Muhammad returning. It's unlikely that Delhomme and Muhammad will rekindle the magic they once had given Muhammad's age and declining skills; but it's possible. While we're still convinced that Jeff Davidson is a proponent of the modern passing game, there is no doubt that the Panthers took seriously the dictum from owner Jerry Richardson to emphasize the run by drafting Jamal Lewis-like Jonathan Stewart with their first-round pick and then mortgaging their 2009 pick and more to get OT Jeff Otah 19th overall. Remember, the Panthers had previously invested a first rounder in DeAngelo Williams and are wedded to the two-RB system, which means they plan to run early and often. It's this more than the injury and lack of production in 2006 that causes us to slot Delhomme as a fantasy backup. Also, the Panthers defense is usually sound, so Carolina might choose to slug it out more and pass less.

We admit to liking the change at offensive coordinator even though Jeff Davidson made his bones as a line coach for the Patriots. He was recommended strongly by Charlie Weis, who mentored him. So we assume he’ll implement a Weis-styled offense. This is a minority view, though, as most analysts interpreted Davidson’s signing as being indicative of John Fox’s desire to emphasize the running game. Davidson, after all, had a huge role in rejuvenating Corey Dillon’s career during Dillon’s first year in New England. But Weis’s offenses were generally Top 10 and even Top 5 in passing TDs. The Panthers have Steve Smith, of course, but also added rookie Dwayne Jarrett (USC) in the draft and still have tall and fast Drew Carter after jettisoning Keyshawn Johnson. The other X-Factor with Delhomme is the signing of David Carr. But Carr was clearly an overrated prospect and projects as nothing more than a backup QB despite his No. 1-overall draft pedigree. There’s no denying Delhomme disappointed last year even when Steve Smith returned after missing the first two weeks and before Delhomme’s sprained thumb cost him three weeks near season’s end. Delhomme struggled last year despite Carolina passing the ball frequently in the first half of games relative to most teams. But Davidson’s primary ambition this spring was devising ways to limit the opponent’s ability to double-cover Smith. Davidson needs to put greater emphasis on downfield throws, too. Last year, 70 percent of Delhomme’s passes were thrown less than 10 yards from scrimmage. Worse, 108 passes were thrown behind the line and just 128 more than 10 yards from scrimmage. Delhomme has always been an effective downfield thrower. And the functional arm strength was still there last year, as his highest QB rating (93) was on 11-to-20-yard throws.

He’s a player we always seem to like more than anyone else. Delhomme has made two different receivers No. 1 fantasy weapons in consecutive years; you have to be pretty good to accomplish this feat. Neither Muhsin Muhammad in ’04 or Steve Smith last year had a reliable complementary target. This year, Smith gets Keyshawn Johnson, who will provide a solid possession threat to keep the chains moving and garner more red-zone opportunities. Yes, John Fox is too conservative. Overall, the Panthers were 25th in pass percentage. On first down, they finished 23rd despite not having a serviceable running game and with Delhomme averaging a ridiculous 9.4 yards on those throws (third best in football). We know he’s great under pressure, with a 95 QB rating on 56 late/close attempts in ’05. And we’ll write off his 69.3 QB rating on 158 11-to-20-yard throws to the fact he had just one reliable receiver in ’05. Even with the passing game being Smith or bust, Delhomme was sixth in overall YPA, which correlates nicely with his 24 TD passes. Look for both those numbers to improve in ’06, but Delhomme’s TD upside is limited by the Panthers ranking 19th in red-zone pass percentage. He deserves more chances because he was eighth best in converting red-zone attempts into TDs, but once again, the numbers don't lie.

Heading into last season, there was some question whether Delhomme’s strong second half (7.7 YPA) and even stronger playoff run (9.7 YPA) were for real. Delhomme’s 2004 campaign resoundingly answered that in the affirmative. A fiery, gun-slinging Brett Favre type with nice touch on the deep ball, Delhomme put up top-10 fantasy numbers last year, despite losing his top receiver, Steve Smith, for the season in Week 1 and having to rely on rookie Keary Colbert as the Panthers’ No. 2 right off the bat. Moreover, the Panthers churned through running backs, losing both clock-chewing Stephen Davis and the more versatile and explosive DeShaun Foster to injuries. With a seemingly on-the-decline Muhsin Muhammad as the only experienced offensive skill player on the field for most of the year – yes, we’re aware of his season totals, but find a 2004 fantasy magazine that ranked him higher than RotoWire’s No. 28 and we’ll give you a free month on the site – Delhomme managed 29 touchdown passes against just 15 picks. Muhammad signed with the Bears this offseason, but Smith is back and looked good during spring minicamps. Colbert should take another step up in his second season, and with Foster, rookie Eric Shelton and possibly Davis back in the mix, the Panthers offense should have more weapons.

Some will argue that Delhomme is overrated due to his impressive postseason and spectacular second half in the Super Bowl. But let's examine the last half of his first season as a starting QB. The number that jumps out is 7.7 yards per attempt (compared to 6.6 the first eight games). Quarterbacks that successful in generating yards per attempt almost always finish in the top five in TD passes. Even if you split the difference between those two numbers, you come in over 7.0 per attempt, which usually correlates to a top-10 finish in passing TDs. (Last year, six of the top seven QBs in TD percentage had plus 7.0 YPAs and the one exception, Jon Kitna, averaged 6.91 per attempt.) As was the case in the Super Bowl, Delhomme gets better with each pass he throws (his passer rating climbed from 62.5 on his first 10 throws to 82.8 on throws 11-to-20 and to 95.3 on throws 21-to-30). With more experience, he'll likely find a comfort level earlier in games. Delhomme's high level of performance in the game's most intense pressure cooker and against the NFL's best defenses (the Patriots and, don't forget, the Cowboys and Rams) will earn Delhomme the confidence of the coaching staff. Overall in the playoffs, Delhomme averaged 9.7 yards per attempt with a 106 passer rating, six TDs and just one INT. He has solid WRs, a very good offensive line, and two excellent running backs capable of distracting defenses. There is some risk here, considering his inexperience and generally unimpressive 2003 season. But the upside is greater.

Delhomme completed exactly 50 passes as a four-year backup in New Orleans. Nonetheless, he came through during Aaron Brooks' annual December swoon last year, leading the Saints to a critical 37-25 win over the Ravens on 7-8 passing for 103 yards. If he beats out Rodney Peete for the starting job, expect modest production, similar to Peete's in 2002, in Carolina's run-oriented offense.