Eli Manning

The Giants hit the trifecta last season: a weak-armed, aging quarterback in a poorly designed offense with injuries to its best players. The result for Manning was a nine-year low in yards, his lowest YPA since his rookie season and his second fewest TDs since 2005. He's fortunate the benching that snapped his streak of 210 consecutive starts lasted only one game. Manning lost Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall early in the season, and Sterling Shepard also missed five games along the way. But that doesn't fully justify his complete inability to throw a deep ball. Of the 34 quarterbacks who attempted at least 20 passes of 21-plus yards last season, Manning easily ranked the lowest in completion percentage (18.0, nine of 50), YPA (6.1) and passer rating (26.1). And for the second year in a row, he threw more interceptions (5) than touchdowns on deep balls (2). To fix the offense, the Giants hired Pat Shurmur, who turned Case Keenum into a Pro Bowler last season in Minnesota, and drafted running back Saquon Barkley, who will be the focus of the attack and give Manning a reliable check-down target. Manning's weapons in the passing game, including tight end Evan Engram, might be the league's most explosive. The team also retooled the offensive line. In short, the 37-year-old Manning is in an enviable fantasy position - if he can just do his part.

Manning posted his third consecutive 4,000-yard season last year, but it wasn't a good campaign for him, all things considered. His YPA was a nine-year low, his TDs a threeyear low and his INTs were a three-year high. Somehow, even with one of the game's great wide receivers in Odell Beckham Jr. on his side, Manning struggled mightily throwing deep last season. On attempts of 21-plus yards, Manning completed 26.5 percent (26th) with 9.1 YPA (25th) for a 52.8 rating (28th). He was one of five quarterbacks with more INTs (6) than TDs (5) on such throws (min. 25 attempts). The offensive line wasn't great, but Manning was sacked just 21 times (28th) and knocked down 64 (29th). A better running game led by Paul Perkins should keep defenses from selling out against the pass, and the signing of Brandon Marshall gives the Giants a receiver opposite Beckham that defenses might have to worry about. Wide receiver Sterling Shepard also figures to improve after a promising rookie season. Perhaps the biggest improvement is at tight end where the Giants used a first-round pick on Evan Engram, who runs a 4.42 40. With more weapons in the passing game, defenses should not be able to focus so heavily on Beckham this year, which could help Manning have a bounce-back season.

Despite everything that went wrong with the Giants' 2015 season, it's hard to hold Manning accountable for much of it. His 35 TDs and 93.6 QB rating were both career highsand he started all 16 games for a remarkable 11th straight season, an incredible record of durability that tends to get overlooked when assessing his value to the franchise. His production did come on a career-high 618 attempts, his second straight season throwing over 600 passes, but that's not a trend likely to reverse itself with offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo taking over as head coach from Tom Coughlin. Manning is a prototypical big-armed pocket passer with limited mobility (his career high in rushing yards is 80, set over a decade ago), but his instincts and quick release allow him to avoid a lot of sacks and pressure. McAdoo's offense also relies heavily on Manning's arm in the red zone, and he's averaged more than 100 RZ passes over the last two seasons. The Giants continue to add to his receiving options, with second-round pick Sterling Shepard joining the roster as a potential replacement for Victor Cruz, who hasn't played since November 2014. Of course, Manning's main target will remain the incomparable Odell Beckham, and that alone should ensure the the 35-year-old quarterback has an excellent floor.

Manning turned in one of his best statistical seasons in his first year directing offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's west coast offense in 2014. Manning lost star wideout Victor Cruz to a season-ending knee injury in Week 6, but then gained rookie sensation Odell Beckham Jr. full time in Week 7. With Beckham in the mix, Manning's YPA jumped from 6.90 to 7.54 in his last 10 games, and his yards per game increased from 220 to 309. He also had 23 completions of 25-plus yards in that span, fifth in the league. For the season, Manning finished sixth in 40-yard completions (10) and fifth in 25-yard completions (31) as he effectively stretched the field. Cruz is still working his way back from a patellar tendon tear, but Beckham, who played through two hamstring tears, is expected to be healthy for the start of the season. Even if Cruz isn't 100 percent healthy, Manning has no shortage of playmakers. Overshadowed by Beckham, wideout Rueben Randle emerged last year, and 6-6 tight end Larry Donnell proved effective in the red zone, where he scored all six of his touchdowns (five on 12 receptions inside the 10). The Giants also added Shane Vereen, a receiving threat out of the backfield.

Although the Giants are standing by Manning as their starting quarterback, he's showing some serious signs of decline as he heads into his age-33 season. His throwing velocity has noticeably dropped over the last two years, and it's possible that permanent athletic deterioration is the issue. The hope is that the velocity drop was largely due to an ankle issue he dealt with last year, one that was repaired by arthroscopic surgery in April. Still, it's hard to buy Manning as anything more than a mid- or low-end QB2, even after the Giants added wide receiver Odell Beckham with the 12th overall pick. At 5-foot-11, 198 pounds, Beckham doesn't have the sort of big catch radius that Manning needs to account for his worsening accuracy, and Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle haven't established themselves as reliable red-zone options.

Manning has been up and down over the past few seasons, but he's shown a high enough ceiling to warrant consideration once the top-10 options are off the board. Manning's biggest issue has been accuracy; it's already difficult to complete passes in Giants Stadium, but his 59.9 percent completion rate from 2012 needs to improve. So does Manning's interception total – he has averaged 17 during his eight years as a starter. With a healthy and talented group of skill- position players – Hakeem Nicks should be 100 percent after getting his knee fixed, Victor Cruz has re-signed and second-year man Rueben Randle showed promise as a rookie – and a potentially explosive running back in second-year man David Wilson, Manning could be set for a rebound year. The quarterback will need to limit the disastrous games, however. Manning had five games with at least two interceptions in 2012, but he also turned in five games with at least three touchdowns, including two with four and one with five. Manning's streaky play makes him a volatile choice, but that variance might be something beneficial if you pair him with a steadier backup.

Manning has been an above average starting quarterback since at least 2009, but it was not until 2011 - his eighth year in the NFL - that he actually arrived. He was particularly sharp in clutch situations as the MVP of the Super Bowl-winning Giants, but his all-around numbers jumped to a new level in 2011, too. His 4,933 yards were more than 900 more than his previous career high of 4,021, his YPA of 8.4 was half of a yard more than his previous career high of 7.9 and his 30 total touchdowns (one rushing) were the second-highest total of his career. With the selection of LSU receiver Rueben Randle in the second round of the draft, free-agent wide receiver Mario Manningham’s exit to San Francisco is not much of a concern, though Hakeem Nicks’ broken foot – which occurred just before press time – could be, should Nicks not be ready for Week 1. Moreover, Manning is unlikely to attempt 589 passes again in 2012 – as the Giants regular-season defense and running game will almost certainty be better – and reduced volume would cost him some yardage at the very least.

Manning has been a nice bargain for his fantasy owners the last two years, emerging as a cheap but effective fantasy starter after spending most of his career as a backup-type. After failing to post a figure any better than 6.8 yards per attempt in his first five seasons, Manning finished 2009 with an average of 7.9 and last year with an average of 7.4. That increased efficiency allowed him to finish those two seasons above 4,000 yards while posting successive career highs of 27 touchdowns in 2009 and 31 in 2010. Of course, last year’s TDs came with a league-leading 25 interceptions, but an inordinate number of those were on tipped passes, and that number will almost certainly decline significantly. If Steve Smith recovers from his microfracture knee surgery, Manning will once again have a loaded group of receivers, with Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and even rookie Jerrel Jernigan providing big-play potential. In any case, it seems as if this improved version of Manning is here to stay, and he should continue to be a solid option at quarterback.

After becoming the league’s highest paid QB during the summer of 2009, Manning performed like one with his best season by far when measured by fantasy performance or any other reasonable criteria. The team wasn’t good, though, which helped Manning rack up yardage. The running game was very inconsistent with the offensive line looking mediocre for long stretches and with Brandon Jacobs seeming uninterested and slowed by myriad minor injuries. Manning’s got production out of a very inexperienced cast of wideouts. Steve Smith became a poorman’s Reggie Wayne, and Hakeem Nicks looks like a future star. Alas, the Giants are looking to make more of a commitment to running and defense. So consider last year’s level of fantasy achievement a ceiling not likely to repeat, irrespective of his ability. While Manning has not yet peaked as a player, his yardage level is likely to regress to the 3800 range. Combine that with fewer TDs due to our presumption of a stronger running game, and Manning becomes the marginal starter/ideal backup he was heading into 2009.

He had his best year in terms of QB rating, but it was still a modest 86.4. The YPA was sub par at 6.8. The TD rate also mediocre, and he didn’t toss a single one to a wideout after Plaxico Burress shot himself Thanksgiving weekend. The Giants at press time have decided to forgo a veteran solution to Burress’s departure. The draft picks are promising, of course. Hakeem Nicks (North Carolina) has Anquan Boldin-type skills. Frankenstein Ramses Barden (Cal Poly) has Burress-type size. And Travis Beckum is a receiving TE/H-Back who can provide the receiving skills run-blocking-titan Kevin Boss lacks. But Manning is never going to take a quantum leap and become a Peyton-type of player. He now is all he’ll ever be: a good-enough NFL QB with little explosiveness to entice fantasy owners unless he’s surrounded by premium skill talent, which he is not. Plus, the Giants have a very good defense and will not need to play too aggressively, especially with their great running game (even with the loss of Derrick Ward to the Bucs) and rock-solid offensive line. You can get away with Manning as a starter at times in deeper, 12-team leagues as long as you are very strong at WR and RB, as you should be because Manning will not require anything higher than a late, mid-round pick. He’s a useful selection here because you know he will not lose his job, and he’s unlikely to get hurt, because, like his brother, he rarely takes sacks, and the Giants also rarely allow clean rushers to break through. Ideally, though, you want to back him up right away with a QB with higher upside because this Manning will not be a significant factor in any fantasy championship.

He was a great game manager in the playoffs, the antithesis of what he was in the regular season, when he finished near the bottom in interception percentage – 20 picks in 529 attempts. Manning is the toughest call in the QB class this year. The numbers say forget him and that the postseason was a fluke that only proved he could avoid mistakes and make a couple of big plays when his defense is carrying the day. And that profile never won anyone a fantasy championship. But so much about playing the position is mental. And Manning now is a champion. If it only takes confidence to unlock natural talent then Manning is primed for takeoff. But since NFL scouts are so bad at figuring out who can play the position, what does being a No. 1-overall pick at QB really mean? Probably a lot less than we think. On the plus side, he was sacked only 27 times in 529 attempts. The Giants have a good offensive line. The receivers are top notch, with Plaxico Burress now upper echelon even when hampered by an ankle injury that is now fully healed. There are a bevy of other weapons, too, including a multi-dimensional stable of capable running backs. And the Giants are very aggressive in throwing the ball, at least during the regular season. They grade above average on first downs in the first half of games and in throwing inside the red zone. Manning is a solid option if you opt for our preferred strategy of being among the last teams to take a starter and the first to take a backup in 12-team leagues. That means drafting Manning about the eighth or ninth round. If the glitz of the Super Bowl win has blown his cover or if you're drafting with Giants fans, don't sweat it. There's not enough evidence here to justify a reach.

Despite the 24 TD passes in each of the last two years, his upside appears limited. Almost any QB who’s great peaked before the 40-start mark of his career. Manning attempted 69 percent of his passes of 10 yards or less. And you know he has a strong arm because he obviously passed all those silly scouting combine drills with flying colors. Should Manning throw deeper more often? From 11-to-20 yards, he had a 58 QB rating and completed 42 percent of these throws. He also had seven interceptions on just 36 throws 21-to-30 yards from scrimmage. He did very well on throws of more than 30 yards, but good luck if that’s your offensive bread and butter. You can’t call Manning a choker because he’s the same in the fourth quarter of close games as he is overall: mediocre. Same for the last two minutes of a half. The only stat we can find supporting a bullish stance on Manning is 11 TD passes in 22 attempts inside the opponent’s 10 yard line. When viewed within the context of all the other signs of mediocrity, this screams sample-size fluke and may even justify adjusting those 2007 TD projections downward. The bulls see Manning’s 24 TD passes as a floor. They shrug off the loss of Tiki Barber and expect second-year pro Sinorice Moss to stay healthy this year and show the explosive playmaking he flashed at the University of Miami. They buy into Plaxico Burress as a dominant, king-making receiver. And they cross their fingers on Jeremy Shockey’s health. All of this is needed for Eli to step into the class of the fantasy elite. We’d say the chance is one-in-three, at best.

Who is Eli? The QB who made great strides the first half of ’05 or the mediocre signal caller he became in the second half? After a 14-5 TD/INT ratio the first eight games (84 QB rating), he finished 10/12 (69 QB rating). Things then got much, much worse in the home playoff loss to the Panthers. Manning’s struggles seem certain to give Tom Coughlin a rationale for being more conservative to start the year. Fantasy owners have learned not to trust Coughlin with their QBs. In ’05, the Giants were 26th in first down pass percentage, 15th in overall pass percentage and 15th in red-zone pass percentage. Manning was average in converting red-zone passes into TDs despite the emergence of Jeremy Shockey into a major weapon and addition of Plaxico Burress, who, admittedly, is a streaky talent. So why count on him? The weapons are plenty, with the dynamic Tiki Barber catching the ball out of the backfield. We also like the addition of Sinorice Moss as a slot receiver, which should increase the already very good 30 passing plays of more than 25 yards. The 90.5 QB rating on 69 late/close throws gives us hope that Manning will ultimately respond and continue his early ’05 development path. He’s proven he can handle the blitz, with an 88.5 QB rating and 13 TDs against it last year (168 attempts). The 87.5 QB rating on 116 11-to-20 yard throws shows the arm strength is there. But he must improve his accuracy, which was sub-par last year with 17.1 percent poor throws, many on easy, shorter ones where he often looked like he had the yips.

After a rocky start against some very tough defenses, Manning seemed to turn the corner against the Steelers in Week 15. In that game, Manning completed 16-of-23 passes for 182 yards (7.9 YPA) and two touchdowns with just one interception and nearly led the depleted Giants to a win against the AFC’s top playoff seed. Manning’s numbers over the final two games weren’t pretty (5.4 YPA), but he threw for three touchdowns in a Week 17 win over Dallas and cemented his status as the team’s leader. Manning has good, but not exceptional, arm strength, nice touch on his passes and good pocket awareness. He’ll also have a decent stable of receivers now that the Giants signed Plaxico Burress to fit in among Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey and Tiki Barber coming out of the backfield. And if the speedy Tim Carter can recover from a hip injury, or if Jamaar Taylor can take the next step, Manning should have more than enough skill players in place for a productive second season. The Giants need to do a better job of pass protection, but the signing of free-agent right tackle Kareem McKenzie and the return to health of second-year right guard Chris Snee should help on that front.

Eli is no Peyton (who tossed an impressive 26 TDs his rookie year), and in any event, he’ll likely begin the season on the sidelines behind the recently acquired Kurt Warner. Were Manning able to beat out Warner in training camp, quality receiving options like Jeremy Shockey, Amani Toomer and Tiki Barber out of the backfield would help. But the Giants’ line specialized in “look out” blocks last year, and coach Tom Coughlin has never created an offensive environment conducive to success for fantasy QBs.