This article is part of our The Stats Room series.
The key with rookies is finding the points where talent and opportunity come together perfectly. Usually, players taken early in the draft should have the combination of talent and opportunity. But this situation is not always the case. A team might take a wide receiver early in the draft for value over need. On the other hand, a sixth-round receiver could be picked by a rebuilding team and forced into a starting role.
Let's start the conversation to find how tight end and wide receiver talent is distributed in the draft with wide receivers.
Wide Receivers
While only one running back, Ezekiel Elliott, was taken in the first round of this year's draft, four wide receivers were taken. The Browns took Corey Coleman 15th overall and then three came off the board in a row with picks 21 to 23. The game is becoming more and more pass first with receivers having a more pronounced role, and the chances of a receiver
The key with rookies is finding the points where talent and opportunity come together perfectly. Usually, players taken early in the draft should have the combination of talent and opportunity. But this situation is not always the case. A team might take a wide receiver early in the draft for value over need. On the other hand, a sixth-round receiver could be picked by a rebuilding team and forced into a starting role.
Let's start the conversation to find how tight end and wide receiver talent is distributed in the draft with wide receivers.
Wide Receivers
While only one running back, Ezekiel Elliott, was taken in the first round of this year's draft, four wide receivers were taken. The Browns took Corey Coleman 15th overall and then three came off the board in a row with picks 21 to 23. The game is becoming more and more pass first with receivers having a more pronounced role, and the chances of a receiver putting up decent yards has increased recently.
The move to rookie wide receivers being more prominent can be traced to 2009 when 11 rookie wide receivers (Jeremy Maclin, Austin Collie, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Kenny Britt, Michael Crabtree, Mohamed Massaquoi, Johnny Knox, Louis Murphy, Brian Hartline) each had more than 500 yards receiving. Before 2009, the average number of 500-yard rookie receivers was 3.6. Since 2009, the number has jumped to 6.1 per year. Additionally, this change can be seen in the total yards caught by rookies going from an average of 5,772 from 2000 to 2008 to 7,694 yards from 2009 to 2015.
Now that rookies are accounting for more and more offense, here are their chances for having a 500- and 1,000-yard seasons by the round they were picked. Also, I included the chance the receiver will have at least one yard receiving.
| ROUND | 1,000 YARDS | 500 YARDS | 1 YARD |
| 1 | 6.2% | 35.1% | 64.9% |
| 2 | 2.2% | 25.0% | 69.6% |
| 3 | 1.1% | 13.3% | 70.0% |
| 4 | 0.0% | 8.0% | 66.7% |
| 5 | 0.0% | 7.5% | 60.4% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 42.0% |
| 7 | 1.1% | 2.2% | 58.7% |
I would definitely concentrate on receivers drafted in the first couple rounds**. In deeper leagues, there is some chance for third- to fifth-round talent to have an OK season, but almost no chance exists for 6th- and 7th-rounders.
The chances of success almost perfectly drop until a small jump up in the seventh round. Now, is this production from actual talent or opportunity?
Here is how productive receivers have compared to their drafted round.
| ROUND | YARD | COMP% | YPT | FUMBLE% |
| 1 | 13.9 | 53.1% | 7.4 | 1.5% |
| 2 | 13.3 | 53.8% | 7.1 | 1.8% |
| 3 | 13.6 | 55.0% | 7.5 | 2.0% |
| 4 | 12.6 | 54.3% | 6.8 | 2.8% |
| 5 | 14.3 | 51.5% | 7.4 | 2.7% |
| 6 | 12.5 | 49.7% | 6.2 | 4.6% |
| 7 | 12.2 | 52.4% | 6.4 | 2.0% |
Most of the receivers exhibit generally the same talent level until we get to about the sixth round. The numbers between the first and fifth round are almost identical except with the fumble rate, which steadily climbs.
In conclusion, the best place to start looking for productive wide receivers is in the first couple rounds as teams probably picked up the receiver to fill a hole. Even though the chances are slim to have an elite season, third to fifth-round picks are productive if given the chance. Finally, keep your distance from the sixth- to seventh-round guys as they are less talented.
Tight Ends
Tight end is generally one of the last positions an owner thinks to fill after Rob Gronkowski go off the board. The group of players below regular tight ends are rookie tight ends. Owners have little faith in them. After looking over their first-year production, owners may consider them if they have a starting role.
First, here is how often they reach certain yardage thresholds.
| ROUND | 500 YARDS | 250 YARDS | 1 YARD |
| 1 | 12.5% | 50.0% | 79.2% |
| 2 | 8.9% | 33.3% | 51.1% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 20.6% | 79.4% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 11.4% | 63.6% |
| 5 | 0.0% | 5.1% | 66.7% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 6.5% | 67.7% |
| 7 | 0.0% | 1.8% | 54.5% |
Just like the wide receivers, there is a steady drop in overall production from the first round to the later ones. If I was going to take a draft chance on one, it would be a first- or second-rounder, which this year is just Hunter Henry (Arkansas) taken by the Chargers in the second round.
| ROUND | YPC | COMP% | FUMBLE% |
| 1 | 10.9 | 60.4% | 0.92% |
| 2 | 11.4 | 63.4% | 0.78% |
| 3 | 10.1 | 63.0% | 0.23% |
| 4 | 10.4 | 63.9% | 0.91% |
| 5 | 10.3 | 60.5% | 0.53% |
| 6 | 10.3 | 67.2% | 0.00% |
| 7 | 9.8 | 59.6% | 0.50% |
The round doesn't really seem to matter for tight end production, except for maybe the seventh round. It might sound like a broken record, like it was with wide receivers and running backs, but opportunity, not talent, will normally determine tight end value.
Even though it has been a few months since the draft and we are into the preseason, teams and fantasy owners are trying to determine which recent draft picks have value. When it comes to wide receiver and tight ends, just pick up the ones who are playing, even if they were drafted later, as their production is normally just as good as the higher draftee.
**Corey Coleman (Browns), Will Fuller (Texans), Josh Doctson (Redskins), Laquon Treadwell (Vikings), Sterling Shepard (Giants), Michael Thomas (Saints), Tyler Boyd (Bengals)
