This article is part of our Survivor series.
The Saints had a bit of a scare, but none of the significant favorites lost last week, including the highly owned Bills who struggled early but had the game in hand for most of the fourth quarter.
Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | Giants | 32.90% | 525 | 84.00 | 5.26 |
| CHIEFS | Jets | 32.80% | 2100 | 95.45 | 1.49 |
| PACKERS | Vikings | 12.20% | 275 | 73.33 | 3.25 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 9.50% | 300 | 75.00 | 2.38 |
| Titans | BENGALS | 8.30% | 240 | 70.59 | 2.44 |
| Rams | DOLPHINS | 0.90% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.31 |
| PANTHERS | Falcons | 0.70% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.30 |
| Saints | BEARS | 0.50% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.17 |
| BILLS | Patriots | 0.50% | 185 | 64.91 | 0.18 |
| SEAHAWKS | 49ers | 0.40% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.15 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The top two picks are split evenly between the Bucs and Chiefs at 33 percent. Otherwise, it's the Packers, Eagles and Titans and a few oddball picks at the bottom.
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
I don't need to explain to anyone why the Chiefs are likely to beat the Jets, and they're not even that heavily owned. I give KC a 95 percent chance to win this game.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
There's some confusion as to what this line should be, but the Eagles are at home and facing an all-time bad defense and now arguably a bottom-five offense. I give the Eagles a 78 percent chance to win this game.
3.
The Saints had a bit of a scare, but none of the significant favorites lost last week, including the highly owned Bills who struggled early but had the game in hand for most of the fourth quarter.
Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | Giants | 32.90% | 525 | 84.00 | 5.26 |
| CHIEFS | Jets | 32.80% | 2100 | 95.45 | 1.49 |
| PACKERS | Vikings | 12.20% | 275 | 73.33 | 3.25 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 9.50% | 300 | 75.00 | 2.38 |
| Titans | BENGALS | 8.30% | 240 | 70.59 | 2.44 |
| Rams | DOLPHINS | 0.90% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.31 |
| PANTHERS | Falcons | 0.70% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.30 |
| Saints | BEARS | 0.50% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.17 |
| BILLS | Patriots | 0.50% | 185 | 64.91 | 0.18 |
| SEAHAWKS | 49ers | 0.40% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.15 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The top two picks are split evenly between the Bucs and Chiefs at 33 percent. Otherwise, it's the Packers, Eagles and Titans and a few oddball picks at the bottom.
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
I don't need to explain to anyone why the Chiefs are likely to beat the Jets, and they're not even that heavily owned. I give KC a 95 percent chance to win this game.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
There's some confusion as to what this line should be, but the Eagles are at home and facing an all-time bad defense and now arguably a bottom-five offense. I give the Eagles a 78 percent chance to win this game.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs look great, but it's a Monday night road game against a Giants team that's been off 11 days and could be a letdown spot. I give the Buccaneers an 80 percent chance to win this game.
4. Green Bay Packers
The Vikings might have packed it in, but they still have some firepower on offense and should get Dalvin Cook back. I give the Packers a 75 percent chance to win this game.
5. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are one of the league's best offensive teams and should run roughshod over a soft Bengals defense. Still, the Bengals are at home, and Joe Burrow should move the ball against an average Tennessee defense. I give the Titans a 72 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: None
