This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was pretty uneventful with only the Ravens and Eagles (about four percent) of pools going down. The Packers had a scare, but survived.
Let's take a look at Week 11:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | Jets | 41.80% | 370 | 78.72 | 8.89 |
| VIKINGS | Cowboys | 31.00% | 310 | 75.61 | 7.56 |
| Steelers | JAGUARS | 14.50% | 450 | 81.82 | 2.64 |
| BROWNS | Eagles | 2.50% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.93 |
| Dolphins | BRONCOS | 2.10% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.79 |
| SAINTS | Falcons | 1.70% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.56 |
| Chiefs | RAIDERS | 1.60% | 295 | 74.68 | 0.41 |
| RAVENS | Titans | 1.40% | 260 | 72.22 | 0.39 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are no massive favorites this week, with only the Steelers above 80 percent and the Chargers close behind, but 42 percent owned.
My Picks
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
They're on the road, and sometimes they play down to their competition as they did in Dallas, but this should be an easy game against a rookie quarterback and below-average defense. I give the Steelers an 81 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs lost to the Raiders the first time around, and now they're on the road. But the Raiders could be short defensively due to COVID, and the Chiefs are coming off a bye, something at which head coach Andy Reid has excelled during his career. I give the Chiefs a 75 percent chance to win this game.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers get a home game
Last week was pretty uneventful with only the Ravens and Eagles (about four percent) of pools going down. The Packers had a scare, but survived.
Let's take a look at Week 11:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | Jets | 41.80% | 370 | 78.72 | 8.89 |
| VIKINGS | Cowboys | 31.00% | 310 | 75.61 | 7.56 |
| Steelers | JAGUARS | 14.50% | 450 | 81.82 | 2.64 |
| BROWNS | Eagles | 2.50% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.93 |
| Dolphins | BRONCOS | 2.10% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.79 |
| SAINTS | Falcons | 1.70% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.56 |
| Chiefs | RAIDERS | 1.60% | 295 | 74.68 | 0.41 |
| RAVENS | Titans | 1.40% | 260 | 72.22 | 0.39 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are no massive favorites this week, with only the Steelers above 80 percent and the Chargers close behind, but 42 percent owned.
My Picks
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
They're on the road, and sometimes they play down to their competition as they did in Dallas, but this should be an easy game against a rookie quarterback and below-average defense. I give the Steelers an 81 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs lost to the Raiders the first time around, and now they're on the road. But the Raiders could be short defensively due to COVID, and the Chiefs are coming off a bye, something at which head coach Andy Reid has excelled during his career. I give the Chiefs a 75 percent chance to win this game.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers get a home game against the Jets, which shouldn't be a problem for them, but keep in mind the Jets are coming off a bye and played well last time out against the Patriots. I give the Chargers a 79 percent chance to win this game. (The only reason they're not ranked second is the high ownership percentage.)
4. Minnesota Vikings
They should handle Dallas at home, but the Cowboys played better defensively against the Steelers, are coming off a bye and should have Andy Dalton back. I give the Vikings a 75 percent chance to win this game.
5. New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston looked shaky in relief of Drew Brees, and the Falcons have played better since canning Dan Quinn a few weeks ago. Still, the Saints are fighting for playoff position, and they're the stronger team on both sides of the ball. I give the Saints a 70 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Baltimore Ravens -- They're struggling offensively and draw a Tennessee off 10-days rest that knocked them out of the playoffs last year.
Miami Dolphins -- They're solid, but a road game at altitude is too risky at this stage of their development.
Cleveland Browns -- They're mostly a running team, and this one could turn into an ugly slog.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- The Rams have a top-three defense and should keep this one close.
