This article is part of our Payne's Perspective series.
Welcome back for another edition of my Super Bowl prop bets. For the last several seasons I've posted prop bets I like, some of which are of a legit nature while others are merely for entertainment. Hopefully, you can determine which are which.
I do try to back up many of my picks with actual facts, hopefully turning you on to one or two you weren't aware of yet. Feel free to post any agreement/disagreement in the comments section or any prop bets you found that are worth mentioning. As always, this is purely for entertainment purposes. Keep the mortgage payment for the mortgage.
Malcolm Mitchell OVER 29.5 receiving yards, -110
This is probably my favorite prop bet of the weekend. There's only action if he plays, though it's worth noting he was active for the AFC championship while his main competition, Michael Floyd, was a healthy scratch. Mitchell missed the Patriots' first playoff game with a knee injury and only had one catch for five yards in the AFC championship, depressing this down to 29.5 yards. It should be expected with two weeks off and that he was active against Pittsburgh that he'll be close to, if not, 100 percent healthy for the Super Bowl. He has the speed to get open downfield, and there's a decent chance all he needs is one catch to eclipse this number. Over his last six regular-season games, Mitchell only once did he have fewer than 29 yards receiving, which is why
Welcome back for another edition of my Super Bowl prop bets. For the last several seasons I've posted prop bets I like, some of which are of a legit nature while others are merely for entertainment. Hopefully, you can determine which are which.
I do try to back up many of my picks with actual facts, hopefully turning you on to one or two you weren't aware of yet. Feel free to post any agreement/disagreement in the comments section or any prop bets you found that are worth mentioning. As always, this is purely for entertainment purposes. Keep the mortgage payment for the mortgage.
Malcolm Mitchell OVER 29.5 receiving yards, -110
This is probably my favorite prop bet of the weekend. There's only action if he plays, though it's worth noting he was active for the AFC championship while his main competition, Michael Floyd, was a healthy scratch. Mitchell missed the Patriots' first playoff game with a knee injury and only had one catch for five yards in the AFC championship, depressing this down to 29.5 yards. It should be expected with two weeks off and that he was active against Pittsburgh that he'll be close to, if not, 100 percent healthy for the Super Bowl. He has the speed to get open downfield, and there's a decent chance all he needs is one catch to eclipse this number. Over his last six regular-season games, Mitchell only once did he have fewer than 29 yards receiving, which is why I'm pretty confident in this one. I'm also leaning under on Chris Hogan at 69.5 receiving yards given his last game.
UNDER 59.5 points, -110
This is my second-favorite bet. Vegas knows everyone loves to bet the over, which is built into the line; it's more fun to root for scoring and until the end of the game there's always the chance for a win. I've repeatedly pointed out this season that every Falcons home game (10 games) has totaled at least 54 points, which has to be some record. But this game isn't in Atlanta (though it is in a dome), and the over has been pounded.
Tom Brady OVER 2.5 total rushing and passing touchdowns, -155.
I know, I know, I just touted the under in this game. There's no reason, though, that both of these can't happen. The over/under and point spread suggests the Patriots should score about 30.5 points. This season, in the nine games when the Patriots scored at least 30 points, Brady had at least three touchdown passes eight times. While he hasn't scored a rushing touchdown this season, the sneak is always in play with the Patriots as Brady has 17 career rushing touchdowns, adding a little incentive here instead of just betting over 2.5 touchdown passes.
The Patriots WILL convert a 4th down, +120
The Falcons WILL convert a 4th down, +120
This seems too good to be true given that you can take both (the move I'd make) and only need one to hit to come out ahead 20 percent. I'd guess both teams go for at it least once on fourth-and-short or late in the game playing from behind. Each team made eight fourth downs this season, though neither team has attempted a fourth-down conversion in the postseason. This is only a two-game, and odds are one, if not both, will be in a spot to go for it (they went for it a combined 32 times in the regular season) in a game expected to be close.
Julio Jones' longest reception (-1.5) OVER Damian Lillard points vs. the Thunder, -120
You have to love this one when comparing the ceiling for each of these players. Lillard's best game this season was against Dallas in which he had 42 points (51 is his career high). Julio's has receptions of 73 and 75 this season, showing his potential (his career-high is 81 yards). Lillard's opponent, the Thunder, allow the seventh-fewest points to point guards at 21.9 per game, putting Lillard in a less than ideal situation. Julio's over/under on longest reception is listed at 29.5 and Lillard averages 26.2 points per game. If there's any pause here, Malcolm Butler is a good corner and the Patriots are notorious for taking away the opposing team's top offensive weapon.
The Falcons WILL score a touchdown in the second quarter, -140
This one is interesting considering it's tough to determine since it can be random when a team scores. However, the Falcons were the best team in the league when it came to scoring in the second quarter this season, averaging 8.6 points and increasing that to 12.7 in their last three games. Oddly, the Patriots (same prop but at -155) were 14th in the league in second quarter scoring with 6.8 points.
"Gronk" or Gronkowski will be said OVER 3 times on live TV during the live broadcast, -120
I've mentioned this before – Gronk and his brothers grew up less than 10 minutes from where I live. I've heard stories that are very entertaining. I can tell you this – his mom used to work at the Wegmans near me and was the nicest person ever. There is also this, in case you missed it. He's going to be at the game and it would make sense if he's in Robert Kraft's suite, which the television broadcast is likely to cut to every time the Patriots score a touchdown.
Gisele Bundchen will be shown OVER 1.5 times on television, +170
We can only hope. At least more than Robert Kraft, who I'd guess will be wearing the blue shirt with the white collar. Also, I hope we don't see Chris Christie hugging Kraft after a score in their private box. Don't think that's happening.
Lady Gaga's hair will be ANY COLOR OTHER THAN BLONDE when she starts her halftime show, +200
Gaga is known for being unique and outrageous; I'd guess she makes some sort of fashion statement, and that could be here hair. Getting the opportunity to double your money makes sense given the chances she strays from her normal blonde.
President Trump will pick the PATRIOTS to win the Super Bowl, -1000
I would guess he'll pick himself to win the Super Bowl, but that's not an option. This almost passes the airplane test given Trump's relationship and backing by Tom Brady. Realistically, there's no way I'd ever put money down on this, but there will be someone out there who drops a lot if he thinks this is a sure thing.
Tom Brady or Matt Ryan WILL record 415 or more passing yards to break the Super Bowl record, +400
Brady has thrown for 406 yards twice this season while Ryan has a game of 502 and threw for 392 last week. If this does turn into shootout, it's likely one or the other at least gets close to the mark if not surpasses it. I would think with the Brady/Goodell revenge narrative, Brady will not only be at the top of his game, but setting the record would be the icing on the cake.
Enjoy the game and be sure to eat/consume too much!
