This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Week 4 Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Eagles overcame some significant personnel challenges in Week 3 to notch a 15-12 win over the Saints, while the Broncos shocked the Buccaneers in Tampa, 26-7.
Both Philadelphia and Tampa Bay enter this rematch of last January's wild-card matchup with identical 2-1 marks as a result, but the visitors enter as surprising favorites despite the possibility of playing without their top two wideouts again.
Let's examine top bets and a game prediction for Sunday's Eagles-Buccaneers showdown.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds for Week 4
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Eagles -118 (FanDuel)/ Buccaneers +105 (DraftKings)
Point spread: Eagles -1 (BetMGM Sportsbook)/ Bucs +1.5 (ESPN BET)
Totals: Under 43 points (bet 365)/ Over 42.5 points (-105, Caesars)
The Bucs have priced as underdogs here for more than a week, with the number at TB +1 as far back as Tuesday, 9/17. The number jumped as high as +2.5 immediately after Week 3, eventually declining back to 1.0 at midweek and bouncing between that number and 2.0 since then.
In comparison, the total has headed in one direction....down. It sat at 47.5 late last week, and in the immediate aftermath of the Week 3 outcomes, dipped to 46.5. It's continued a progressive decline since then, getting as low as 42.5 after the Eagles ruled DeVonta Smith out due to a concussion, even though A.J. Brown returned to a limited practice Friday.
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Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Picks This Week
The Eagles gutted out a 15-12 win in enemy territory in Week 3 in New Orleans, just six days after having their heart broken by the Falcons in Philadelphia. With Brown out due to his hamstring injury, Jalen Hurts leaned heavily on Smith (until his second-half exit) and Dallas Goedert, while Saquon Barkley provided critical contributions on the ground via a 17-147-2 rushing line.
There's another road trip south in store this week, with the possibility that Brown returns to the field and helps make up for Smith's already confirmed absence. Hurts would certainly welcome the presence of his No. 1 receiver, who missed games for the first time in his Eagles tenure in Weeks 2 and 3. If Brown can't suit up, Jahan Dotson, who's done very little since arriving in a late-summer trade with the Commanders, will get the chance to fill the role of No. 1 receiver. Rookie Johnny Wilson and veteran Parris Campbell round out the top receiving trio.
Whether or not Brown plays, there's little doubt Goedert will essentially serve as one of Hurts' top three pass-catching options after he turned in a sensational 10-170 line on 11 targets in Week 3, including a 61-yard catch. However, Barkely is likely the key to any offensive success the Eagles experience. His rushing and receiving ability figure to be on frequent display against a Tampa Bay defense that could once again line up without Vita Vea (knee), and will definitely miss Antoine Winfield (foot).
Barkley has recorded touch counts of 26, 26 and 21 over his first three games as an Eagle, with rush-attempt totals of 24, 22 and 17. I envision the Eagles featuring Barkley early and often in this game, whether or not Brown is available. Philadelphia will look to wear down the Bucs' defense early, with the goal of eventually breaking the will of the unit by the fourth quarter and ideally not overly relying on a short-handed air attack. Tampa Bay allows 137.7 rushing yards per game at 4.9 yards per carry, supporting the notion this could be a realistic goal.
On the other side, the Bucs have health issues on offense to contend with as well. Rookie Bucky Irving, apparently in the midst of taking over Tampa Bay's ground attack, is legitimately questionable with a hamstring injury that caused him to miss one practice and participate in limited fashion in two others this week. Rookie No. 3 receiver Jalen McMillan is also listed as doubtful with his own hamstring issue. If both first-year talents sit out, the Bucs' depth will be strained.
The other key component here that has me believing in a different outcome than last January's 32-9 playoff romp for the Bucs is the Eagles' defense. The unit now has star rookie first-round pick Quinyon Mitchell at one corner and revitalized veteran Darius Slay at the other. In addition, newcomer Zack Baun has been an outstanding offseason addition, already compiling 37 tackles, including 2.0 sacks, over his first three games.
Philly notched a 25-11 victory at Raymond James Stadium in Week 3 last season. Although it won't be anywhere near as convincing this time, I see the Eagles escaping the Sunshine State with a close victory in which Barkley and the new-look defense lead the way.
Eagles @ Buccaneers Best Bets:
- Eagles moneyline (-118 on FanDuel)
- Saquon Barkley Over 18.5 rush attempts (-110 on DraftKings)
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Eagles @ Buccaneers Prediction
Eagles 22, Buccaneers 20
The Eagles come in short-handed here under any circumstance, but Philadelphia still has two highly potent weapons in Hurts and Barkley. Naturally, any appearance by Brown would add a bonus. The fact that the Bucs' defense will also miss some key pieces will help Philly's cause here. Ultimately, I like the Eagles' defense to muster some of the same effort it did against the Saints and hand the Bucs a second loss, albeit a very close one.
