This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Kansas City (+4.5) at New England - Saturday, 4:35 p.m. EST
Comments: It's always nice when a team tells you five seconds into a game that your prediction for the outcome is effectively DOA. As soon as Knile Davis returned the opening kickoff to the house last week I knew the Chiefs were about to make me look pretty foolish for picking against them despite their 10-game winning streak, but hey, I knew the job was dangerous when I took it. The thing is, though, I'm not sure my assessment was all that far off. (It was the Texans, and especially Brian Hoyer, that I grossly overestimated). Kansas City is still a team relying heavily on its (admittedly excellent) defense while getting very little from its offense, a disparity that Jeremy Maclin's high ankle sprain makes even more lopsided. They won't pick off Tom Brady four times Saturday, so every point they can scrounge up will be crucial if they want to keep pace with the Patriots. ... That said, New England's offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders, either. Brady threw multiple TDs in 13 of 16 regular-season games this year, but two of those low-output games came in Weeks 16 and 17 as injuries have left him with few targets he can rely on. Rob Gronkowski is hobbled by knee and back issues, Danny Amendola's knee injury limited his snaps over the final month of the season, and while Julian Edelman is expected to play
Kansas City (+4.5) at New England - Saturday, 4:35 p.m. EST
Comments: It's always nice when a team tells you five seconds into a game that your prediction for the outcome is effectively DOA. As soon as Knile Davis returned the opening kickoff to the house last week I knew the Chiefs were about to make me look pretty foolish for picking against them despite their 10-game winning streak, but hey, I knew the job was dangerous when I took it. The thing is, though, I'm not sure my assessment was all that far off. (It was the Texans, and especially Brian Hoyer, that I grossly overestimated). Kansas City is still a team relying heavily on its (admittedly excellent) defense while getting very little from its offense, a disparity that Jeremy Maclin's high ankle sprain makes even more lopsided. They won't pick off Tom Brady four times Saturday, so every point they can scrounge up will be crucial if they want to keep pace with the Patriots. ... That said, New England's offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders, either. Brady threw multiple TDs in 13 of 16 regular-season games this year, but two of those low-output games came in Weeks 16 and 17 as injuries have left him with few targets he can rely on. Rob Gronkowski is hobbled by knee and back issues, Danny Amendola's knee injury limited his snaps over the final month of the season, and while Julian Edelman is expected to play for the first time since Week 10 after recovering sufficiently from a Jones fracture in his left foot, he isn't likely to be anything close to 100 percent healthy. ... The weather could also work in the Chiefs' favor, as the forecast calls for it to be cold and rainy in Foxboro on Saturday afternoon. If the passing games get dampened and the game is decided in the trenches, KC could well be in position to steal it, especially given Chandler Jones' mysterious hospitalization last weekend and his lingering abdominal and toe injuries.
Predictions:Charcandrick West gains 60 combined yards and scores. Alex Smith throws for less than 200 yards once again, but does hit Albert Wilson for a TD. Brandon Bolden leads the Patriots' backfield with 50 yards, while Brady throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Amendola and Gronk. Eric Berry's fumble return for a score proves to be the difference. Chiefs, 21-17
Green Bay (+7) at Arizona - Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST
Comments: It was nice to see the Packers' offense look like the Packers' offense again last week, but it's no coincidence that the resurgence came against the weakest defense in the postseason. Aaron Rodgers faces no such soft touch Saturday, as the Cardinals ranked eighth in the regular season in QB rating allowed at 80.9. When the two teams met in Week 16, Rodgers was held to 151 passing yards and a single score as Arizona romped to a 38-8 win. Davante Adams also injured his knee in the win over Washington and isn't likely to play, taking away another one of Rodgers' weapons. An incredibly unreliable weapon, mind you, but still. Eddie Lacy is also questionable with his rib injury, but he'll once again tough it out. ... The Cardinals, meanwhile, used their bye to heal up any nagging boo-boos they had at the end of the regular season, and defensive end Frostee Rucker (Achilles' tendon) and OLB Markus Golden (knee) are the only starters on either side of the ball even listed as questionable. However, Carson Palmer is still dealing with an injured finger on his right hand, and he did have his worst game of the year against the Seahawks in Week 17 while trying to play through it. If it's still bothering him more than the Cards are letting on, the Packers might have a chance. ... The key for this one for Arizona could be David Johnson. He was held to just 39 rushing yards and a TD in the first matchup, but added 88 receiving yards. Green Bay's defense was mostly stout against pass-catching backs during the year but was decidedly mediocre on the ground (21st in rushing yards allowed at 119.1 per game, tied for 23rd in rushing TDs allowed at 13, and 29th in YPC against at 4.5), though, so those yardage totals could be reversed this time around.
Predictions:James Starks leads the Packers' backfield with 60 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Rodgers throws for 220 yards and a second TD to Jared Abbrederis. Johnson tears off 110 combined yards and two scores, while Palmer throws for 250 yards and a TD to Larry Fitzgerald. Cardinals, 27-14
Seattle (+1.5) at Carolina - Sunday, 1:05 p.m. EST
Comments: The weekend's premiere matchup, the Seahawks come roaring into the game having won seven of their last eight as they try to reach their third consecutive Super Bowl. That run includes four wins over playoff teams (the Cardinals, Steelers and the Vikings twice) and to say they are peaking at the right time would be a bit of an understatement. The Panthers, of course, have won seven of their last eight as well (15 of their last 16, to be precise) but their road to the divisional round was decidedly easier, and they had just one win over a playoff team over the last half of their schedule, a Week 11 trouncing of Washington. ... The two teams are so similar it's kind of eerie, with both featuring elite defenses, MVP-caliber quarterbacks, mouthy star cornerbacks and starting running backs coming back from injury. Jonathan Stewart hasn't played since Week 14 due to a foot injury but appears fully recovered, while Marshawn Lynch hasn't played since Week 10 after pulling the plug on his return from sports hernia surgery just prior to last week's win. Lynch should play Sunday, but after flinching last week, there's no guarantee Beast Mode will be back. ... While statistically the two defenses are among the best in the league across the board, they've been trending in opposite directions. The Panthers slipped to sixth in scoring defense (19.3 points per game) down the stretch, as teams like the Saints and Giants hung crooked numbers on them. The 'Hawks, meanwhile, ended up in first (17.3 PPG) and have held four of their last six opponents to single digits.
Predictions: Lynch plays but rushes for just 50 yards. Russell Wilson throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett, and also runs in a score. Stewart rumbles for 70 yards and a TD, while Cam Newton throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Greg Olsen. Seahawks, 24-20
Pittsburgh (+7) at Denver - Sunday, 4:40 p.m. EST
Comments: The win over the Bengals took a heavy toll on the Steelers. Antonio Brown suffered a concussion and has been ruled out for Sunday, while Ben Roethlisberger sustained a shoulder injury that figures to limit his effectiveness even if it doesn't keep him off the field. Add in DeAngelo Williams' foot injury, which looks like it will cost him his second straight game, and it's hard to see where Pittsburgh's points will come from, even before you factor in that they're facing the league's No. 4 scoring defense on the season. Roethlisberger has been known to perform a playoff miracle or two, but unless he gets the kind of help he got from an out-of-control Cinci defense last week, and manages to avoid the Broncos' league-leading pass rush (52 sacks on the year), this one could get out of hand quickly. ... Speaking of battered and ineffective quarterbacks, Peyton Manning has his job back. He didn't look particularly impressive in relief of Brock Osweiler in Week 17, but after seeing the fates that befell all the teams using QBs with no playoff experience in the wild-card round, you can hardly blame coach Gary Kubiak for going with the old guy. The Steelers' defense isn't what it once was and was fairly meh against the pass this season, finishing the regular season 17th in QB rating allowed at 90.9, so Manning could well have a decent game. As with so many other teams in this year's postseason, though, the script for the Broncos is defense first, and any positive offensive contribution they get is a bonus. ... Both defenses finished in the top five in rushing yards allowed per game, so while game flow might allow Ronnie Hillman and/or C.J. Anderson to put up some bulk numbers, don't expect the backfields to be a big factor.
Predictions:Fitzgerald Toussaint picks up 70 combined yards. Roethlisberger starts but doesn't finish the game, ending up with less than 200 yards and no TDs, while Landry Jones is poor in relief. Hillman picks up 80 combined yards but Anderson scores. Manning throws for less than 200 yards, but does hit Demaryius Thomas for a touchdown. Aqib Talib also returns an INT for a score. Broncos, 24-3
Regular season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS
Postseason record: 3-1, 1-3 ATS
