NFL Barometer: Bad Luck Spreading

RISING

Robby Anderson, WR, NYJ

The season-ending neck injury to Quincy Enunwa made the league's worst team worse, but it opens up a big opportunity for Anderson. While he may lack pedigree as an undrafted player out of Temple, Anderson's broader prospect profile has always been rather promising. At 6-foot-3, 187 pounds he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.36 seconds at his pro day, adding a 36.5-inch vertical and 128-inch broad jump. He finished his 2015 senior season with 70 receptions for 939 yards and seven touchdowns in 14 games, but he was even more impressive during the 2013 season, when he switched from defensive back just in time to post 44 catches for 791 yards and nine touchdowns in nine games. Anderson largely went undrafted over academics issues, and he's had off-field trouble since arriving to the NFL. But that all the more highlights the fact that there's reason to believe the talent is there. With Enunwa out of the picture, Anderson could see 130 or more targets, in which case even a poor YPT would yield useful volume.

Robert Turbin, RB, IND

Turbin's acquisition cost in 12-team leagues has been almost nothing for most of this offseason, but promising reports out of training camp figure to elevate his price in the final weeks leading up to kickoff. While it was previously presumed that fourth-round pick Marlon Mack would be the runner to benefit if Frank Gore should get hurt or otherwise fall off, it looks like the veteran Turbin is making the stronger case to this point.

While Turbin's career trajectory indicates a sub-replacement level player – three teams have given up on him already – his prospect profile prior to his NFL career was quite solid. He ran for 3,315 yards (5.9 YPC) and 40 touchdowns in 38 career games at Utah State, showing off advanced passing down skills with 67 receptions for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns. He then ran a 4.50-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-10, 222 pounds, demonstrating uncommon speed for a bigger back. The efficiency probably will never be there in a Colts offense with a questionable line and the looming specter of a disaster scenario at quarterback, but this is an athletic big back with the ability to produce as a receiver. If Gore goes down, Turbin profiles as a candidate for significant volume.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, NYJ

While Enunwa's injury won't affect Seferian-Jenkins' snap count like it might in Anderson's case, ASJ should still be in position to benefit from a target increase with Enunwa out. After a two-game suspension to start the season, ASJ is a good dark horse bet to be among the league's most active tight ends.

Work ethic and off-field responsibility in general have been the only thing to hold ASJ back, but that those issues precipitated his release from the Buccaneers as just a 23-year-old former second-round pick shows the issues were indeed substantial. Apparently alcohol consumption was at the top of the list of concerns, but recent photos of ASJ give reason to think he has it under control. After listing in the 260-pound range for most of his collegiate and pro career, Seferian-Jenkins looks more like 240 at the moment.

If ASJ really is that light nowadays, he should prove a huge athletic mismatch. He was a five-star recruit or very close to it when he arrived to Washington, and in his age-20 season in 2012 he showed rare upside with 850 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 games. He's believed to possess speed in the 4.6 range which, if true, would round out a high-grade prospect profile. If he has his personal issues under control, this Jets offense should have an ample number of targets for ASJ to let that prospect profile manifest at long last.

Kenny Golladay, WR, DET

Mike Williams was the seventh overall pick as a 6-foot-4, 218-pound wideout with speed in the 4.60 range, so it's odd how Golladay continues to fly under the radar as a 6-foot-4, 218-pound wideout with a 4.50 Combine 40. Williams dominated at Clemson, which was a much higher level of competition than what Golladay faced at Northern Illinois, but Golladay deserves credit for posting better share percentages despite playing with bad quarterbacks.

With such a strong if overlooked prospect profile, it's not surprising that Golladay earned positive reviews for his early showings in training camp. His size and athleticism are both uniquely strong in a Detroit wideout rotation defined by its dependency on two slot types in Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, so there's reason to project a steady role off the bat if the praise continues. Jared Abbrederis is a great route runner who appears to be the primary competition for Golladay, but Golladay is more versatile and much more athletically talented.

It's difficult to advocate drafting Golladay in most leagues – you'd probably need to be looking at a 16-team league before easily projecting him as draft-worthy – but this is a player most of us might want to put on speed dial at the season's start. The prospect profile checks out, and particularly if Eric Ebron continues with his durability issues, the Lions will have an immediate use for Golladay's standout size in the red zone.

FALLING

T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND

If we all agree that it's time to worry about Andrew Luck's recovery from January shoulder surgery, then with the same breath we might as well point out that bad-case scenario for Luck would entail a similarly problematic outcome for Hilton. While Hilton is doubtlessly a great talent, the theory of his fantasy value requires the condition of his deep threat skills showing up in the box score, and Scott Tolzien has shown little downfield passing ability in the NFL.

Hilton's career-best 1,448 yards from last year were propelled by 28 catches of 20 or more yards. If Luck is out or compromised, resulting in sub-par starts from him or Tolzien, it's hard to see Hilton matching that rate of explosiveness, not to mention his YPT of 9.3. Given the uncertainty around Luck, whose otherwise cryptic status seems to involve little more than throwing tennis balls at this point, we might want to project a season for Hilton less like last year and more like his 2013 season, when he averaged 7.8 YPT on his way to 1,083 yards and five touchdowns.

David Njoku, TE, CLE

The idea of Njoku proving an immediate fantasy factor has all but proven itself too good to be true, as the recently-turned 21-year-old finds himself third on the Cleveland depth chart behind Seth DeValve and even Randall Telfer.

While Njoku doubtlessly showed some significant flaws to dictate this outcome – fumbles apparently at or near the top of the list – this is more so a reminder that the rookie was facing unfair expectations after the Browns cut Gary Barnidge. It turned out that it had more to do with how the Browns felt about DeValve, and less to do with them presuming the then-20-year-old was truly ready to withstand the rigors of playing NFL tight end. Njoku should be just fine in the long run – his production, film, and athletic measurables all scream of high upside – but it's too soon to expect him to reach his full form this year.

Josh Doctson, WR, WAS

It's believed to be a minor injury, but that Doctson is missing any camp time with a hamstring pull is problematic for his implementation into the Washington offense. After a lingering Achilles' tendon issue negated his rookie year, Doctson is still starting from almost scratch as he heads into his second season.

Doctson is a major athletic talent and should be fine in the long run, but in the meantime he's a risk to see a lower target rate than his talent would otherwise normally dictate. Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed are talented veterans locked into certain roles, and free agent acquisition Terrelle Pryor is by all accounts showing well in camp to this point. With the missed reps potentially limiting his prominence in the game plan, Doctson is a candidate to start the year slow barring a nearing return to practice.