This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week saw about 35 percent of pools go down, mostly with the Vikings losing at home to the Cowboys, but a few more on the Ravens and Dolphins.
Let's take a look at Week 12:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | JAGUARS | 22.10% | 275 | 73.33 | 5.89 |
| Giants | BENGALS | 17.30% | 240 | 70.59 | 5.09 |
| Seahawks | EAGLES | 11.50% | 230 | 69.70 | 3.48 |
| Dolphins | JETS | 11.00% | 275 | 73.33 | 2.93 |
| RAMS | 49ers | 10.80% | 310 | 75.61 | 2.63 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 10.70% | 380 | 79.17 | 2.23 |
| Saints | BRONCOS | 6.40% | 240 | 70.59 | 1.88 |
| BILLS | Chargers | 3.00% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.91 |
| VIKINGS | Panthers | 2.40% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.81 |
| COWBOYS | Football Team | 1.70% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.69 |
| Texans | LIONS | 0.90% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.36 |
| Raiders | FALCONS | 0.90% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.36 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is a bizarre week for three reasons: (1) There are six teams more than 10 percent owned, the first time I've ever seen that; (2) No 80 percent favorites on the board; and (3) The top four teams by usage are all on the road.
My Picks
1. Green Bay Packers
They're home and coming off a loss, and they get the toothless Bears offense. I give the Packers a 79 percent chance to win this game.
2. Los Angeles Rams
The 49ers beat them the last time, but now San Francisco has Nick Mullens at quarterback and no George Kittle. The Rams might be the best defensive unit in the league,
Last week saw about 35 percent of pools go down, mostly with the Vikings losing at home to the Cowboys, but a few more on the Ravens and Dolphins.
Let's take a look at Week 12:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | JAGUARS | 22.10% | 275 | 73.33 | 5.89 |
| Giants | BENGALS | 17.30% | 240 | 70.59 | 5.09 |
| Seahawks | EAGLES | 11.50% | 230 | 69.70 | 3.48 |
| Dolphins | JETS | 11.00% | 275 | 73.33 | 2.93 |
| RAMS | 49ers | 10.80% | 310 | 75.61 | 2.63 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 10.70% | 380 | 79.17 | 2.23 |
| Saints | BRONCOS | 6.40% | 240 | 70.59 | 1.88 |
| BILLS | Chargers | 3.00% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.91 |
| VIKINGS | Panthers | 2.40% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.81 |
| COWBOYS | Football Team | 1.70% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.69 |
| Texans | LIONS | 0.90% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.36 |
| Raiders | FALCONS | 0.90% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.36 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is a bizarre week for three reasons: (1) There are six teams more than 10 percent owned, the first time I've ever seen that; (2) No 80 percent favorites on the board; and (3) The top four teams by usage are all on the road.
My Picks
1. Green Bay Packers
They're home and coming off a loss, and they get the toothless Bears offense. I give the Packers a 79 percent chance to win this game.
2. Los Angeles Rams
The 49ers beat them the last time, but now San Francisco has Nick Mullens at quarterback and no George Kittle. The Rams might be the best defensive unit in the league, but they just played Monday night, while the 49ers had a bye. I give the Rams a 75 percent chance to win this game.
3. New York Giants
With the Bengals turning to Brandon Allen, the Giants should be the better team on both sides of the ball. They're also rested off the bye week. I give the Giants a 73 percent chance to win this game.
4. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have played better of late, and the Chargers are poorly coached and have to travel to an early-body clock game in cold weather. I give the Bills a 71 percent chance to win this game.
5. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are on the road for the second straight week, and their offense did nothing against the Broncos. Still, it's the Jets, albeit the slightly improved version, and that makes any team a viable play. I give the Dolphins a 70 percent chance to win this game.
6. Cleveland Browns
Another road team, but they face the Jaguars with Mike Glennon at QB, i.e., a team arguably as bad as the Jets or Joe Burrow-less Bengals. I give the Browns a 71 percent chance to win this game, but rank them lower because they're the highest-owned team.
7. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are a great team, but Taysom Hill is the type of quarterback that can be solved by a good game plan, and this game is outdoors, on the road and at altitude. I give them a 69 percent chance to win this game.
8. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are weak defensively and the offensive line has been bad too. And they're traveling across the country to play this game. Luckily, they draw the reeling Eagles whose offense can't get out of its own way. I give the Seahawks a 68 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Minnesota Vikings -- They're better than the Panthers, but they recently lost home games to the Falcons and Cowboys, so I can't trust them.
