This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
USC
vs. San Jose State Betting Odds and Best Bets
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We can expect Caleb Williams and USC's high-octane offense to be on full display at Memorial Coliseum. The Trojans have an excellent history against the Spartans, who faced weak opposition on the way to a 7-4 record in the Mountain West. The past two meetings between the teams have been all Cardinal and Gold, with USC besting the Spartans 30-7 in 2021 and 56-3 back in 2019.
USC vs. San Jose State Betting Odds for Week 0
Spread: USC -30.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 66.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: USC -900; San Jose State -9000 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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While there hasn't been much line movement, early money has driven the O/U up a couple of points. There's merit to favoring the Over here, but Williams and his corps of receivers are not the only justification for taking the bet. Alex Grinch returns as USC's defensive coordinator, and he has a lot to prove after the Trojans surrendered an average of 29.2 points to opponents in 2022. Lack of discipline on defense has plagued the program since the Lane Kiffin days, and despite Grinch and Lincoln Riley's arrival, USC ranked 93rd in scoring defense, giving up big leads to inferior programs like Cal, Stanford and Arizona. The team raided the transfer portal and added four powerhouses to the defensive line room, and the rest of the defense is packed with talent. Can their resolve match their pedigree? If not, it will cost them a Pac-12 championship and a berth in the CFP. Another feather in the cap for the Over bet is San Jose State's Chevan Cordeiro, who threw for 3.251 yards and 23 touchdowns for the Spartans last season. Although the receiving corps is in a bit of a rebuild, top target Justin Lockhart should be ready for the opener. San Jose State's defense is also in a state of flux after losing Cade Hall and Villami Fehoko at defensive end, but the secondary is battle-tested and could give Williams some problems.
USC vs. San Jose State Betting Picks for Week 0
The Trojans favored the Over 11-3 in 2022 and were 8-6 against the spread. I would have been more inclined to take the Over when it was at 64.5, but I am now a bit less confident about the solvency of that route. The spread is too wide for my taste, however. We would need Cordeiro and his offense to put up at least 21 points to solidify an over pick, where a final like 49-21 would do the trick. USC's propensity for allowing second-half points to lesser opponents in 2022 gives me enough confidence to take the Over despite the increase. A perceived three-touchdown victory for the Trojans compels me to take the underdog and the points.
USC vs. San Jose State Best Bet: Over 66, San Jose State +31.0 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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USC vs. San Jose State Predictions for Week 0
Are the Spartans good enough to keep things close? Definitely not. The opener will be a test for the USC defense and its ability to close out a weaker opponent. Both offenses should produce enough firepower to drive the score up, and although the Spartans will be far from striking distance, USC's questionable defense remains a lingering question yet to be answered. Caleb Williams and his impressive fleet of receivers will negate any defensive inefficiencies the Trojans may experience for most of the season, and although that will certainly be the case here, the team will need to take a leap forward defensively before tackling Notre Dame and Utah in October. I. am comfortable with the 49-21 end result in USC's favor.
