This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Michigan vs. Alabama
Bowl season is fun, but the Rose Bowl isn't about fun. Oh, I'm really looking forward to watching it, but the time for edible mascots and backups facing backups in games that yield feel-good stories but little else, it's time to get down to business. New Year's Day brings up the College Football Playoff. First-ranked Michigan takes on fourth-ranked Alabama. Two blue bloods. Two great teams. Nobody sitting out for NFL Draft prep. Nobody sitting out because they decided to hit the transfer portal early. Things are about to go up eight notches.
Michigan vs. Alabama Betting Odds for the Rose Bowl
Spread: Michigan -1.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Alabama +2 (ESPN BET Sportsbook)
Total: 44.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), 45.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Michigan -120 (BetMGM Sportsbook), Alabama +108 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Well, if a playoff game isn't a toss-up, that feels disappointing. Fortunately, this one is. In fact, so much so that if you are inclined to bet on Bama plus a mere two points, I'd recommend just taking the moneyline bet of it winning outright. With a $20 bet, you'd pick up an extra $3.42 in winnings, and all you cede is the possibility of the Tide losing by one point or saving a push with a two-point loss.
Jump in on bowl season with a BetMGM bonus code sporting a $1,500 bonus bet offer if you don't win!
Michigan vs. Alabama Betting Picks for the Rose Bowl
First, we are blessed with basically no injuries for this one. The Wolverines' injury report is clean, and the Crimson Tide have lead back Jase McClellan listed as probable with a foot issue. Michigan was plagued for much of this season with, well, a bunch of stuff, to be fair. I'm not talking off-the-field concerns in this instance, though Jim Harbaugh being on the sidelines for the Rose Bowl is certainly a point in its favor. No, the Wolverines were the "Ain't Played Nobody" poster boys for months. Then, they handled Penn State relatively easily on the road, beat an Ohio State team that finished ranked third in SP+, and then blanked Iowa 26-0 to win the Big Ten title. Michigan ranks in the top six in points allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per carry, and passing yards allowed per attempt. Also, it ranks first in SP+, ninth offensively, second defensively, and fifth in special teams.
The Tide because they beat the two-time defending champs Georgia in the SEC title game. You win the SEC with a single loss; you are a playoff team. However, I personally believe Florida State should have gotten Alabama's spot, and also Alabama did indeed lose. Nick Saban's team lost 34-24 to Texas in Tuscaloosa. That was followed by the biggest existential crisis game I can recall in Alabama history, as it looked for anybody other than Jalen Milroe to step up at quarterback in an agonizing 17-3 win at South Florida. In the middle of the season, the Tide only beat Texas A&M by six and Arkansas by three. At the end of the year, they won the Iron Bowl by only three points, and even the SEC title win, while impressive, was by a mere three points. There's a reason why the Tide "only" finished eighth in SP+.
Honestly, why would you take the Tide in the Rose Bowl? Because they are "Alabama" and Michigan is "Michigan?" Do you believe Nick Saban finds a way, while Michigan under Harbaugh has yet to win a playoff game, including losing to TCU last season? Well, those arguments rarely hold water for me. Mystique is lost on me, as are narratives about programs and coaches unable to "win the big one." Give me Michigan all day.
Michigan vs. Alabama Best Bet: Michigan -1.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Get a piece of the action during the 2023 bowl season with a DraftKings Promo Code for $150 instantly after a $5 bet, plus a no-sweat same-game parlay every day!
Michigan vs. Alabama Predictions for the Rose Bowl
Alright then, so how do the Wolverines win? Other than, you know, by being pretty empirically the better team? That defense that ranks second in SP+ will lead the way. Milroe is a real threat with his legs, but his numbers are built upon tallying 155 yards and four touchdowns on the ground against an LSU defense that was not good. Prior to that game, he had run for 142 yards total over seven outings (sacks being a part of that, of course). Against Georgia, Milroe only ran for 29 yards. As a passer, he's all dump-off passes and big shots down the field. Michigan didn't allow a mere 5.8 yards per catch by giving up a lot of big plays.
On offense, Michigan wants to run the ball anytime it is conceivable. Blake Corum leads the way, of course, and J.J. McCarthy can do damage with his legs when called upon. Speaking of "damage," McCarthy's struggles against TCU could make for a rather conservative offense from the Wolverines in the Rose Bowl. Alabama finished 27th in rushing yards allowed per carry. That's quite good but workable for the Wolverines. After all, Penn State finished first on that front, and Michigan ran for 227 yards against them and averaged 4.9 yards per carry. Through leaning on the run game and playing stout defense, I expect Michigan to win a low-scoring affair, but I do very much think it will win.
