This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Louisville vs. Notre Dame Betting Odds and Best Bets
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The Cardinals return home after slugging out a win at North Carolina State, where the offense failed to impress. That brings them to an impressive 5-0 on the year, though they're only 2-3 ATS, alternating covers and failing to cash. The over is 3-2 in their games after last week's low-scoring affair. Meanwhile, the Irish are on the road for the second straight week. A late touchdown at Duke secured a win and a cover for them last week. They sit at 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS, with their game totals going over half the time.
Louisville vs. Notre Dame Betting Odds for Week 6
Spread: Notre Dame -6 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: 53.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Notre Dame -245 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Louisville +205 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Early markets had the Irish opening as just 4.5-point favorites before it moved to 6.5 when most lines were published Sunday evening. It ticked down to 5.5 but has slowly worked its way back up. It sits at 6.5 almost universally, except at DraftKings as of Friday morning. Either number is below the touchdown threshold, but if you're backing the Irish, it makes sense to get in early. Some secondary books are even still showing 5.5.
Given the spread, it's no surprise that DraftKings has the best moneyline odds on the Irish, with FanDuel mirroring. It's a tick higher elsewhere at -250, and has been as high as -265 throughout the week. Louisville is sitting pretty consistently at least +200, with Caesar's currently offering a tad more juice. Anything less is extremely unattractive, given their 31.9 percent win probability.
I don't find there to be a ton of difference in the total at 53.5, where FanDuel and BetMGM have it, while it sits at 54 at most other spots. That said, it's a number that's trending upward, opening at 51.5. I find it curious this is moving, but the spread really isn't throughout game week.
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Louisville vs. Notre Dame Betting Picks for Week 6
The total moving upward has thrown me for a loop. Notre Dame brings a solid to above-average defense to the table, holding five of six opponents to 17 points or less. They are allowing just 3.5 yards per carry and 5.4 yards per attempt, limiting opponents to just 146.8 yards per game through the air. Offensively, Louisville has managed only 13 points on North Carolina State and 21 on Indiana, the two decent defenses they've played. With the total moving upward and me questioning the Cardinals' ability to score, I would have thought the spread would be moving slightly upward for Notre Dame.
Louisville, too, is sound defensively, particularly against the run. But they have been vulnerable through the air, allowing at least 295 yards to Boston College, Indiana and Georgia Tech. And that's where I think the Irish get right. QB Sam Hartman has just 397 yards and one touchdown over his last two games but welcomes back multiple receivers who missed last week. He's yet to throw an interception, which could give pause as he's been prone to one or two games a year with multiple mistakes, but this is a great spot for Notre Dame to take shots downfield and recapture some of the early September success they had in the air. It's a night game at home for the Cardinals; they'll be juiced up early. But with a couple of stops and a couple of scores early, I like the Irish to pull away. They're clearly the better team and are far more battle-tested.
Louisville vs. Notre Dame Best Bet: Notre Dame -6 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Louisville vs. Notre Dame Predictions for Week 6
Perhaps I should again be looking at the under here. I had a hunch on it in my column in Week 4 but didn't pull the trigger, and it hit. Last week, it was the play for the Cardinals and Wolfpack, and it coasted to an easy cash. Further backing that, though, is we know Notre Dame won't abandon the run, while I don't see a pass for offensive success for the Cardinals. QB Jack Plummer seems like a compiler but was mistake-prone last week in Raleigh. And star RB Jawhar Jordan was limited to 2.2 ypc. They'll score some at home, but I don't envision sustained drives throughout the game.
Backing the Irish to cover against an undefeated team in their own building is a risky proposition, and it's a potential look-ahead spot for the Irish with Southern Cal on deck next. But it's also a spot for a business-like approach: get in, take care of the task at hand, and get out. Chris Tyree has come on as a pass catcher, and the Irish get Jayden Thomas and Jaden Greathouse back from injury. Too many playmakers and too much balance will allow the Irish to leave Louisville with a comfortable win. NOTRE DAME 31-17.
