This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Georgia vs. Tennessee Best Bets
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Georgia and Tennessee come into this game trending in different directions. Georgia follows a 52-17 dismantling of No.10 Ole Miss that has vaulted them to the top of the College Football Playoff Standings. Meanwhile, Tennessee comes in off a brutal 36-7 loss to then No.12 Missouri. Fortunately, 7-3 Tennessee, with all three of their losses coming on the road, this matchup against Georgia will be played in Knoxville. For Georgia, however, they come into this game unscathed at 10-0 and with star tight end Brock Bowers a full go after a tight rope surgery on his ankle that held him out for two games and three weeks. Bowers scored a touchdown in his return from injury last week against Ole Miss, and while he didn't quite look like his full self, another week of recovery will definitely help.
Georgia vs Tennessee Betting Odds for Week 12
Spread: Georgia -10 (Points Bet); Tennessee +10 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Georgia -400 (ESPN BET); Tennessee +350 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 58.5 (BetMGM); Under 59.0 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Georgia vs Tennessee Betting Picks for Week 12
The spread on this game has fluctuated back and forth throughout the week between Georgia -10 and -10.5. If the spread happens to move back to 10.5, the extra half a point adds more value to bet Tennessee here. The moneyline, on the other hand, has moved quite a bit as it opened the week with Georgia around -450 and moving down to its current resting point of Georgia -400. However, at this number, I don't see much value in playing either of these as Tennessee is not very likely to win this game, and the return for a Georgia win would be quite low. The total here has moved about half a point from the start of the week as most major books had it at 59 on Monday, fluctuating up to about 59.5 on some books but settling back in at 58.5 on all major books.
Georgia vs Tennessee Expert Pick: Under 59.0 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Both teams grade very well from an Expected Points Added (EPA) standpoint, as both are in the top quarter of the country in almost all EPA/pass and EPA/rush categories for offense and defense. Georgia is led by junior quarterback Carson Beck, who is second in the SEC in passing yards with 3,022. Over Beck's past three SEC games, he has completed 68.2% of his passes for an average of 291.7 yards per game while totaling six touchdowns to one interception. Tennessee is led by senior quarterback Joe Milton, who is seventh in the SEC with 2,283 passing yards on the season. Over Milton's past three SEC games, he is completing 70.5% of his passes for 255 yards per game with a total of four touchdowns to one interception. Georgia will also look to contain the SEC's fourth-leading rusher in Jaylen Wright, who has totaled 848 rushing yards on 7.2 yards per carry so far this season. It is no question that Tennessee likes to establish a running game and play off of that with the improved play of Milton. Georgia's run defense hasn't been as elite as in the past as it is one of the only categories they are not in the upper echelon, sitting at 47th in the nation in EPA/rush. Based on the numbers and this game being in Tennessee, this game could be set up to be closer than most people think.
Georgia vs Tennessee Predictions for Week 12
With both teams anchored by stout defenses that sit at No.1 and No.3 in the SEC in points allowed per game, along with a Tennessee team that will look to play off the running game, I would expect this to be a race to 28 points. One thing here that may help Tennessee is the game being played at home. To this point in the season, they have sometimes struggled with penalties, but that should be less of a factor at home. This will help keep them ahead of the chains to use the clock when on offense and help in the field position battle while also helping from giving away free first downs on defense. Despite the struggles against the run, if you can call it that, as the Bulldogs are still in the upper third of college football, the Georgia defense has the ability to shut down any offense in the country. While I would lean a bit towards Tennessee getting 10 points, the safer bet here looks to be the under based on the strengths of these two teams and the ever-lingering possibility of a Georgia blowout.
