This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Best Bets: USC vs. LSU
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In what could be the most intriguing game of Week 1, the Trojans and Tigers are set to battle it out in Las Vegas on Sunday. On paper, the two teams are eerily similar. Both squads have lost Heisman-winning quarterbacks, replaced by talented but inexperienced replacements. They also share poor defense as a common trait but are very explosive offensively. I think there's an edge to be had here, and we'll explore the ins and outs below
USC vs LSU Betting Odds for Week 1
Spread: LSU -4.0 (Caesars Sportsbook), USC +4.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 64.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: LSU -178 (FanDuel Sportsbook), USC +160 (MGM Sportsbook)
There's been a trend of money headed LSU's way, which has affected the line somewhat. The Over/Under line has been high all week.
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USC vs LSU Betting Picks for Week 1
For two years, USC ran Caleb Williams' offense. Sure, Lincoln Riley called the plays, but Williams' tendency to improvise diluted the playbook. What we saw with Miller Moss during the bowl game was strict adherence to a system constructed by a coach who has produced Top 10 offenses dating back to his OC days at Oklahoma.The result? A masterful game from Miller Moss. Riley's scheme is explosive, and Moss knows how to run it.
LSU also knows how to put up points, and Garrett Nussmeier is also a confident passer with a strong arm. He's strictly a pocket passer, but he's shown that he can direct the offense effectively in limited action. But let's set the offense aside for a moment.
USC's defense has been weak and undisciplined since the Clay Helton era, and mistakes on that side of the ball cost USC a berth in the CFP. LSU's defense was equally bad last season, but there's a key difference between the two defensive units in 2024. The Trojans hammered the transfer portal and acquired several veteran players on defense, resulting in an almost complete reboot of talent. They also brought in D'Anton Lynn across town from UCLA to helm the defense, and he was able to turn around a Bruins defense that was awful before he arrived. LSU is bringing back a lot of veterans, but aside from hiring former Missouri DC Blake Baker, they didn't improve their roster. I believe that the Trojans have a chance to shake the defense's bad reputation with these changes, and if they can get past LSU's talented offensive line, it could be a long day for the Tigers. Although both defenses could allow the total to be high, I'm taking the Trojans and the points.
USC vs LSU Expert Pick: USC +4.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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USC vs. LSU Predictions for Week 1
USC kept the transfer magic going at running back, acquiring Woody Marks from Ole Miss. Since Moss isn't as mobile as Williams, Riley will employ the run more frequently. LSU will rotate a mix of Josh Williams, Kaleb Jackson and John Emery Jr., so they'll likely have a fresher backfield overall. Both teams lost quality receivers in the offseason, but Zachariah Branch and Duce Robinson lead a deep corps of wideouts for USC. I prefer the duo over Kyren Lacy and Liberty transfer CJ Daniels. USC's talent boost on defense will make success through the air a challenge for Nussmeier, while Moss should have more success with a heavy dose of medium-length throws to his targets.
Score prediction: USC 35, LSU 24
