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Chris' Picks
Any winning week this season is a success for me, but given how the previous three weeks went, and starting last week 3-0, I'm a little disappointed we didn't finish with another banger. Arkansas, what the heck? We're still under .500 for the year, but 15-5 over the last four weeks, paired with some serious success in our single-game previews, and I'm confident but apprehensive heading into the final two weeks. Unreal, this season is already almost gone.
Mississippi State (-14) vs. Southern Mississippi
Perhaps Southern Miss sees this as their Super Bowl and recognizes it's a wounded and bad opponent and comes out swinging. The problem is that as bad as Mississippi State is, Southern Miss is worse. They allow 35.3 ppg, 5.2 ypc and 26 rushing scores, and a massive 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Will Rogers is expected back for the Bulldogs, which should boost their offense. In the six games he started before injury, they averaged 30.2 points, which rose to 42.3 points against non-conference opponents. Mississippi State's defense rolled over at A&M last week, but they've been okay against the run (4.0 ypc), giving them a shot to bottle up Frank Gore and get a much-needed big win.
Michigan (-19) at Maryland
Maryland has already played Penn State and Ohio State and got rolled both times, losing by a combined 88-32. Their offense is sputtering in conference, averaging 14.0 points in their last two and 19.2 points in their last five. Michigan allows just 7.5 points per game, seven times holding opponents to single digits. It's an obvious letdown spot for the Wolverines, but I have difficulty finding a path to essentially any points for the Terps. They already can't run the ball and will be forced to drop back as a result, which will create negative plays and turnovers. Michigan's defense may well outscore the opponent Saturday.
East Carolina (+2.5) at Navy
The Pirates seem to be building momentum quietly. They played Tulane tight at home and then went on the road and knocked off FAU for their first FBS win of the season. The defense has been stout, allowing 13 points or less in three of their last four. And they're terrific against the run, allowing 3.2 ypc. A low-scoring slugfest is in store, so I'll take the points, but I think the Pirates win outright.
Clemson (-6.5) vs. North Carolina
UNC still has ACC Title game aspirations, but they likely will know their fate with Louisville/Miami kicking off before this. I think both teams are going to find success running the ball, but the bottom line is simply there's no way I see North Carolina's defense going on the road and getting meaningful stops. Drake Maye can succeed against the Tigers' secondary but not their pass rush. Clemson has rallied over their last two and has momentum I look to carry over.
Georiga (-10) at Tennessee
This line feels like a trap, but I'm biting anyway. I can't emphasize enough that I'd lock this in early, as I'm shocked it hasn't moved much, if at all, since it opened, but I'm starting to see some 10.5s, and I really don't see how it slides down. Georgia has only played two road games all year, and they've been less than impressive. But I see a similar game script here for the Vols as they showed at Alabama: competitive early, the lead stretching out late. Georgia's offense is firing on all cylinders now, and I don't trust Joe Milton to match points. It would not hurt my feelings if we took less juice and took the Bulldogs at -9.5
Last week: 3-2; Season 27-28
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Greg's Picks
No matter how the week has started lately, it seems destined to end the same way. Another 2-3, and this time, it was a very frustrating 2-3.
Okay, I left that line in from last week, but it still holds. I'm running out of time to turn this season around, but on the bright side, the last time I had a losing season, I managed to put in a good bowl season, so maybe we have something to look forward to.
So, how did we end up at 2-3 again this past week? Well, it started with Alabama taking Kentucky out to the woodshed and flying over the total. Things just got worse when BC got trampled by Virginia Tech. I was fortunate to get the over on the Clemson game, as it was looking bad for a while, but a strong second half got us over the total. The next game was a breeze as UCF crushed Oklahoma State. The Knights did most of their damage on the ground as well, which is how I thought things would play out. When you're in the middle of a tough season, it's nice when you see a game play out exactly as expected. The final game was the over on the Tennessee-Missouri game, and that was a bit of a surprise as Missouri came to play, but Tennessee simply did not.
Over (62.5) Colorado at Washington State
It's the battle for the bottom of the PAC 12. Who would have thought that either of these teams would be near the bottom of the PAC 12 a few weeks into the season? After quick starts to the season, each team has gone in the tank. Colorado has lost four in a row entering the week, and WSU has dropped its past five games. The main problem for both teams this year has been the defense. Colorado's defense ranks 132nd in the country, and WSU isn't much better at 104th. Both teams are more than competent on offense, however, so I'm expecting a lot of points here.
Michigan (-19) at Maryland
Michigan has simply been a machine this season. Regardless of how the Wolverines do it, the results don't lie. Last week's win at Penn State was the first time the opponent has ended up within 24 points at the end of the game. Sure, the schedule has been terrible, but the Wolverines are leaving no doubt about the winner each and every week. Maryland is coming off a nice road win this past week at Nebraska, but I don't think that will help the Terps this week. The problem for the Terps is that they're one-dimensional on offense; they can't run the ball, and guess where Michigan's pass defense ranks? You guessed it, number one. My only worry here is a look ahead, but the Wolverines have been very business-like all season, and I don't see them letting up in this spot.
Chattanooga (+44.5) at Alabama
These picks can either be a lot of fun or just a terrible mess, and you usually know which way it will go very early on. What I like about a spread like this is that everything has to go right for Alabama to cover a number like this. Even if the Tide gets out to a 35-0 halftime lead, there's no guarantee that they'll score 10 points in the second half as teams in those spots, against FCS competition, rarely keep the pedal down. Now, why would Chattanooga even have a chance of keeping this game close? Simple, it's a pressure-release game. The Tide has been in "must-win" scenarios since their loss to Texas earlier this year, and that's a lot of pressure. There's no pressure this week because they aren't losing this game. Nick Saban won't tell you that, but you can bet the players are already looking ahead to their rival Auburn next week, then Georgia, then maybe the playoff. Chattanooga is barely registering on their minds right now.
Ohio State (-27.5) vs Minnesota
I'm certainly playing with fire here, taking both Michigan and Ohio State the week before the big showdown, but in each case, I have faith in the defense to shut down the opposition completely. In this case, the Gophers have no weapons to hurt the Buckeyes. In years past, they could at least run the ball a bit, but that's not even much of an option in this spot. As for the defense, the Gophers are decent against the run, which just means that Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to have a field day. The only thing standing in the way of a cover here is complacency, but I don't expect that to happen.
Over (63.5) Washington at Oregon State
This line first caught my eye because the undefeated Washington Huskies are the underdogs. I wasn't shocked, but it's a little surprising to see the Huskies in that role after what they've accomplished this year, but I digress. I couldn't conclude on the side, so I'm looking at the total. Oregon State is strong on the ground, both on offense and defense; the defense, however, won't likely get much of a chance to shine in that aspect, as I'm expecting Washington to avoid running the ball Saturday completely. While the Beavers love to run the ball on offense, they're actually pretty good through the air as well, ranking 42nd in yards per game. The strength of the Husky defense is the rush defense and while I don't expect OSU to abandon the run, I do expect them to realize it'll be much easier to move the ball through the air, so expect multiple shots downfield.
Last Week: 2-3-0; Season 23-32-0
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Jeff's Picks
After a streak of winning weeks, I ended Saturday at 2-3 after Oregon State laid a huge number on Stanford. I need to finish out strong to make sure I stay above 50 percent, and unfortunately, there are several sticky games out there for Week 12. My bets below will be ranked by overall confidence, from best to worst.
North Carolina State +3.5 @ Virginia Tech
Playing in Blacksburg will be tough, but the Wolfpack are running hot right now. They just had a decisive win against Wake Forest, and their defense has been superb over the past month. The only question mark is the variable success of the offense, and even though we aren't sure who we will see under center, we have a much clearer idea of how bad the Hokies' offense is. They are a run-first offense by necessity, as Kyron Drones has struggled to pass the ball. N.C. State's front seven should cause fits for the running game, and if the mistake-prone Drones has to pass the ball, the Hokies will be in big trouble.
Michigan -19 @ Maryland
This is a big number to hang on Maryland, but you can throw the "trap game before meeting Ohio State" intangible out the window here. The team will be fired up if they get Jim Harbaugh back due to an injunction or royally miffed if it fails, and they'll be well-motivated to put up a big number against the Terps. The Wolverines don't want to give the Buckeyes any valuable tape, and I don't think they'll need to reveal their scheme in this spot. You can bet Michigan will run the ball at least 60 percent of the time against a below-average Maryland defense, but they are especially bad against the pass, so we may see J.J. McCarthy use his arm a bit more. Nebraska handed Maryland the victory due to four turnovers, and I wouldn't credit their offense for the win. Taulia Tagovailoa is streaky, and the run game is pathetic, and they are a much worse offense than Penn State. You saw what Michigan's defense did to the Nittany Lions, and they'll do more damage Saturday.
UTSA -16 vs. South Florida
I had my eye on this game right away. Frank Harris is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the country over the past month, leading to six consecutive wins for the Roadrunners. South Florida has a decent group of rushers, but they will run into trouble against a UTSA run defense that's one of the nation's best. I don't expect the Bulls to keep up in this game, as the Roadrunners will put them into many third-and-long situations. The Bulls have also turned the ball over 17 times, and while UTSA's turnover margin is equally bad, this is a defensive mismatch where the Roadrunners will have the upper hand.
USC -6.5 vs. UCLA
If Chip Kelly doesn't come out with a win against the Trojans, his days could be numbered at UCLA. The Trojans don't have much to play for, but this cross-town rivalry is almost always a good game, although rain will slow the game down somewhat. USC is free from injuries, but UCLA's crew of quarterbacks are in complete disarray, and there's no telling who will be the eventual signal caller. We all know the story of USC's defense, and as bad as it is, UCLA's offense has put up just 17 points over their past two games and will have a hard time keeping up. The Bruins' defense is underrated and could give Caleb Williams some problems, but the Heisman winner can squirm his way out of almost any bad situation. If it starts to pour, it could play to UCLA's advantage with workhorse Carson Steele leading the way, but on paper, this is USC's game to lose.
Georgia -10 @ Tennessee
You can't trust what you read on the internet, but I heard that the line moved on this game when it was reported that Dolly Parton would be in attendance. I find this a little hard to believe, but I like the spread where it is currently. Georgia is putting all the pieces together at the right time, as an underrated Carson Beck will be leading an offense that has Brock Bowers back. The tight end is a universal mismatch wherever he lines up, and Ladd McConkey's resurgent rushing will open things up for Beck. The home advantage for the Vols is a big deal - they are perfect at home this season, and the Bulldogs have had some missteps on the road. I can't get past the trouncing Tennessee took against Mizzou, and while I think 10 points is a lot to give to Joe Milton and a tricky offense that throws and runs equally well. I think they'll sputter in the second half, allowing Georgai to run away with the game.
Last Week: 2-3
Season: 28-26-1 (50.9%)
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