This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Saturday features an American classic, as Army and Navy battle in their annual end-of-season matchup. Both sites are offering contests for the game, so let's dive in.
Navy (-2) @ Army O/U: 32.5
It's important to keep in mind the key differences between FanDuel's Single Game and DraftKings' showdown structures. While both formats offer an MVP or Captain slot with a 1.5x FP multiplier, DraftKings has five Utility slots to FanDuel's four. DraftKings offers an additional wrinkle, applying a 1.5x multiplier to players' salaries when added to the MVP slot. FanDuel keeps their salaries static throughout.
The sites did away with Team Defense as an option for College Football some time ago, but it would have been a good choice in this matchup, which features a very low projected total. When considering most single-game college football contests, the quarterback is usually a safer bet compared to other position players. The game's tepid offensive outlook still favors one quarterback worth considering, but there are other ways to go with a 1.5x multiplier. This game will be won and lost on the ground, as neither team possesses much of a passing attack, although Navy can occasionally get the ball downfield with a slightly higher pass/run ratio. Army and Navy are both in the Top 10 nationally in rushing offense.
MULTIPLIER CANDIDATES
Both teams field several running backs, and as a result, it's very difficult to identify one back as a candidate for elite production. Although it's sometimes foolish to put all of your eggs in one basket, there's only one player I'm endorsing.
Tyhier Tyler, Army
(DK (MVP) $17,700, FD $14,500)
Tyler is the only signal-caller I would recommend in this game. Despite struggling with some injuries this season, all reports indicated that he'll start over Jamal Jones. One thing you can count on - there won't be a lot of passing in this game. Tyler has only completed nine passes all year, but he's rushed for 600 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground, making him Army's leading rusher. If you're looking for yards in the air, it would make more sense to look at Navy, but Xavier Arline hasn't looked strong at all as a fill-in for Tai Lavatiai, and at this point, there's no guarantee that Arline will take all the snaps. Maasi Maynor looked great after Arline was forced to leave the field with an injury last month. Overall, I think Tyler is the safes play you'll find, barring a surprise performance from a Navy quarterback. I would keep an eye on who starts for the Midshipmen, but he would probably be only worth a UTIL/FLEX spot.
UTILITY CANDIDATES
Daba Fofana, Navy
(DK $8,800, FD $14,000)
Navy's rushing outlook is more clear-cut. Fofana has rushed for 799 yards and six touchdowns this season, and the fullback is the team's leading rusher by a fairly wide margin. He went off against UCF for 114 yards in a signature win for the program. The team probably won't have an easy time moving the ball against Army, but Fofana is a sure bet for a share of the snaps.
Tyson Riley, Army (DK $4,400, FD $7,000)
Tyrell Robinson hasn't played since Week 6, and it's obvious that Riley has received the most opportunity since his absence. That's why his reduced salary on both sites is so confounding. Granted, you would expect Tyler to do most of the heavy lifting, but over the past few weeks, Roley has made a solid contribution. Ay'Jaun Marshall (DK $8,600, FD $8,000) has received increased run as well and after missing the game against UCF, he appears to be ready to go. You're obviously paying a lot more for Marhsall's services, but I wouldn't rule him out.
Jayden Umbarger, Navy (DK $3,400, FD $8,500)
Compared to Army, Navy has a better passing offense, and Umbarger is their top target. As previously stated, I don't have a lot of faith in Xavier Arline, but I doubt the Midshipmen would abandon that facet of their offense. With so little opportunity to identify top performers in this contest, it makes sense to identify and slot Umbarger as the best representative for Navy's passing game.
Maquel Haywood, Navy (DK $7,600, FD $9,000)
Although he's listed as a running back, you'll see Haywood lined up wide as well. While Fofana is a burly north-south runner, Haywood is the speedster of the rushing attack, and he'll definitely be good for one or two receptions against Army's weak secondary. He only has one touchdown to his credit this season, which is the only negative mark I can give him.
In conclusion, you'll have to take a risk or two on this slate. Although Arline is risky, I would consider him the fifth utility on DraftKings. The salary cap is only a concern on FanDuel, which is one reason why I wouldn't take him there. We identified four utilities for FanDuel that will fit quite easily with Tyler.
