This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Iowa vs. Tennessee Best Bets
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Iowa vs. Tennessee Betting Odds for the Citrus Bowl
Spread: Tennessee -5.5 (BetMGM), Iowa +6.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 35.0 (Caesers Sportsbook), Under 36.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: -235 Tennessee (FanDuel Sportsbook); +200 Iowa (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Iowa vs. Tennessee Betting Picks for the Citrus Bowl
As is the case this time of year, there are a lot of changes ahead of this game, but while Iowa will have just a few players missing, Tennessee will be missing a lot of key pieces.
The latest news has Volunteer QB Joe Milton opting out of this game, which should be a big blow as his replacement has taken just 52 snaps. In addition to losing its QB, Tennessee will also be without a lot of key defenders, especially in the secondary.
One thing I found odd was the line movement in this game or lack thereof. The line opened as Tennessee -7 and has moved just a half point since the news of all the missing players for the Volunteers. I figured that would have more of an impact, but the public is not backing that sentiment.
Iowa is not a fun watch for those who like offense. The Hawkeye offense somehow got worse from what we thought was rock bottom this past season. Some of that is due to the QB carousel, but not all of it. The good news for Iowa is that it'll face a depleted Volunteer defense, so perhaps the Hawkeyes can finally get something going on offense. Tennessee wasn't good against the pass to being with, now the Volunteers are missing one starting CBs, two backup CBs, and one starting safety.
On the other side, the loss of Milton is huge because he could beat you with his arm and his legs. With an inexperienced QB at the helm, I have a hard time imagining Tennessee getting much going on offense against a very stout Iowa defense that ranks in the top 15 against the run and the pass.
I'm a little surprised that this game still has a spread close to a touchdown, and while I could be falling into a trap here, I'm going to side with Iowa and the points. I know the Hawkeyes have been terrible on offense this season. Still, with all the player defections on the Tennessee defense and a month to prepare, I'm expecting one of the best offensive performances of the season for Iowa. That, coupled with a stout defense against a new QB, should be plenty to get the cover. I lean toward Iowa on the money line as well if things play out as I expect, and this should be the complete game from the Hawkeyes this season.
Iowa vs. Tennessee Expert Pick: Iowa +6.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Iowa vs. Tennessee Predictions for the Citrus Bowl
Whenever you've got a complete unknown like we do at QB for Tennessee, it's tough to figure out how things will play out. Still, as I see it, I think Iowa comes out with some new tricks on offense and has some early success, which will make things easier for the defense, which can focus primarily on stopping the run.
I expect Iowa to get out to a lead and try to hang on once out in front. Whether or not they win the game depends on how the new QB for Tennessee plays. I'm expecting a rough start from the Volunteer offense, and perhaps they will get it figured out at some point, but I think it will be too late.
Iowa 24 - Tennessee 20
