This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Saturday brings us the best college hoops slate of opening week. We have several contending teams in action and many are playing evenly-matched opponents, something we haven't had much of this week. Here are my predictions for a pair of intriguing games on Saturday evening.
Memphis 
at UNLV 
Memphis opened the season with an 83-75 victory over Missouri, a solid win considering the Tigers are currently ranked 55th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart. It's hard to know how well the rankings will hold up this early in the season, but Memphis already has a resume-building win if Missouri has a good season.
The resume will undoubtedly be important for Memphis, as the Tigers were narrowly picked to finish second (with four first-place votes) in the American Athletic Conference preseason media poll. Memphis doesn't have many returning minutes from last year's team, but it might work out for the better considering the Tigers went 11-7 during conference play last year before a first-round exit in the AAC Tournament. Additionally, the Tigers have tremendous experience despite not playing together before this year, ranking sixth in D-1 experience, per KenPom. Key names that should have an impact this year include preseason All-AAC First Teamers PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter, All-AAC Second Teamer Colby Rogers, and the preseason AAC Freshman of the Year Jared Harris.
UNLV also won its first game of the season, a 93-79 victory against Alabama State. And while beating a lower-level opponent is hardly impressive, UNLV still moved up a few slots in its overall efficiency ranking after the performance (No. 93 to No. 90), so the Rebels are already moving in a positive direction. This is nothing new, however, as this has been the general trend over the past three years since head coach Kevin Kruger began leading the team. UNLV has improved its win total in each successive season under Kruger, beginning with 18 wins in his first season, 19 wins in his second, and then 21 last year. The Rebels rank 116th in D-1 experience and 166th in minutes continuity, so they certainly have a ripe opportunity to build off of last season.
UNLV is led by star point guard Dedan Thomas Jr., so highly regarded that he was selected for the preseason All-Mountain West team. Boise State was picked to win the conference in the preseason media poll, although the league appears wide-open. Six teams (more than half the league) received at least one first-place vote, with UNLV receiving two, tied with San Diego State for the second-most.
Overall, in comparing Memphis and UNLV, the home team appears to have fewer question marks. The Rebels have more experience playing together and return a pivotal player in Thomas. Last year, while UNLV played inconsistently early in the season, it also had a knack for elevating its performance at home. The Rebels handily beat down Creighton last year, 79-64, and the Bluejays entered the game ranked sixth on KenPom's overall efficiency chart. Later in the year, UNLV also defeated the cream of the Mountain West crop in taking down Colorado State and San Diego State in the final weeks of the regular season.
There's extra uncertainty this time of year, so Memphis' talent may take over the game when it's all said and done, but ultimately I'm betting that the home team will get the job done. I'm taking the Rebels in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: UNLV +1.5
Arkansas 
vs. Baylor 
Arkansas looked sharp in its first game against Lipscomb, winning 76-60. One wouldn't say the Razorbacks dominated the game, but the outcome was never in doubt. The Razorbacks entered the game ranked 29th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and they remain in the same slot heading into Saturday.
In any event, this team is loaded and has a reasonable chance of making the NCAA Tournament. As most college hoops fans are well aware by now, Arkansas made noise this offseason by hiring former Kentucky head coach John Calipari. And as expected, Calipari promptly assembled an ultra-talented roster with players of all ages from all around the country. According to 247Sports, Arkansas ranked first in the nation with its transfer class for 2024-25 and ranked third with its freshman class. This new group of players looked impressive in Arkansas' first exhibition, an 85-69 victory over Kansas (sans Hunter Dickinson), though they didn't play quite as well in their second exhibition, a 66-65 loss to TCU. Based on its roster and showings thus far, Arkansas will likely build a quality resume throughout the season, but it's hard to know its ceiling when we're this early in the season.
Baylor, meanwhile, traveled to Spokane and got hammered by Gonzaga in its opening game, 101-63. It would be easy to instantly fade a team that lost by such a massive margin, however, Baylor and head coach Scott Drew have a long and successful track record, making it hard to bury them after one game. If we exclude the shortened 2019-20 season, Baylor has made the second round of the NCAA tournament in five consecutive seasons. The Bears also won the championship in 2020-21, and they were projected as a one-seed in the previous year when the NCAA Tournament as canceled.
Going into this year, the expectations haven't changed. Baylor was picked to finish fourth in the Big 12 preseason media poll, and two of its players, Norchad Omier and Jeremy Roach, were selected to the Preseason All-Big 12 Second Team. The Bears also rank 24th in the nation in D-1 experience, per KenPom, so this team has a shot at making another run in March.
So, then what happened against Gonzaga? Well, it doesn't help that Baylor made just 3-of-21 shots (14 percent) from behind the arc. And it doesn't help that Gonzaga was unstoppable when shooting, making 70 percent from inside the arc and 13-of-31 (42 percent) from behind it. We can't hide the fact that the Bears played lousy, but it was also just one game. They will have better days ahead.
Based on Baylor's long track record, and the fact that Saturday's game is close to home in Dallas, I like the Bears' odds of bouncing back. I'm taking Baylor in this one.
Additionally, I'm also taking the over. Even though I'm picking Baylor to win, I'll admit that the Bears' defense has been less than stout in the past couple of years. If the Razorbacks do pull off the win, it will likely require a massive amount of points. Also, it's worth noting that Coach Calipari had Kentucky playing at the 12th-fastest pace in the nation last season, and this year's Arkansas team ranks 53rd in adjusted tempo. Baylor should also enable a higher-scoring game, given its strength in scoring and weakness in defense. The Bears rank 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency, so we should see a ton of points scored, regardless of who ultimately wins.
College Basketball Best Bet: Baylor -3 and Over 154
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- UNLV +1.5
- Baylor -3
- Arkansas vs. Baylor - Over 154
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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