This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Once again, Saturday brings us another loaded college hoops slate. Going for my sixth straight profitable day, here are my predictions for three games tipping off Saturday.
Tennessee 
at Texas 
The Volunteers are coming off their first loss of the season, a humbling road trip to Gainesville where they lost by 30. I'm glad to say I picked Florida in my Tuesday article, though that decision was more about the Gators than anything else. Despite the loss, Tennessee still has an impressive resume having earned road wins over Louisville and Illinois and also against Baylor and Arkansas.
The Longhorns, on the other hand, don't have much of anything to brag about as they rank 356th in non-conference strength of schedule having failed their only two tests versus Ohio State and Connecticut. And more recently, Texas lost by 20 to Texas A&M before falling by five to Auburn. The latter is a bit deceiving as the Tigers eased off during the second half. Texas had less than a five percent chance to win throughout the entire second half, per KenPom.
When Tennessee has the ball Saturday, they'll face a defense that got torched for 80-plus points in its first two conference games. Texas ranks 43rd in efficiency, which is decent on paper but the fact remains they've struggled against great offensive squads as they've played four teams with a top-40 offensive efficiency rating and lost all four. Tennessee comes in 35th for offensive efficiency.
When Texas is in possession, they'll be going up against one of the best defensive programs in the nation. Tennessee holds elite numbers across the board with an impressive perimeter defense holding opponents to 24.6 percent from beyond the arc, the best in the country. This skill is particularly useful in this matchup as Texas makes over 40 percent of their threes, the eighth-highest mark. The Longhorns rank 45th in offensive efficiency, so they're not awful at scoring. But cracking the Tennessee defense usually requires extraordinary effort and execution.
The Vols didn't look great in their last outing, but that's okay. It's a long season, and Florida is proving to be a dangerous team. Tennessee still boasts an elite defense with an offense capable of dropping 100 points. I'm going with them here.
College Basketball Best Bet: Tennessee -5
Villanova 
at St. John's 
The Wildcats' season was teetering on the edge of disaster in the first month as they lost four of their first seven games. They've since rebounded taking nine of 11. One of their stumbles during this stretch was a one-point loss to Maryland, so it's just one shot away from another W. More importantly, the Wildcats are coming off their biggest win of the season over Connecticut by two. The start of the schedule was bumpy, though that last matchup further suggests the team has significantly improved.
The Red Storm is similarly coming off its best outing with a 10-point road win at Xavier. Aside from this, St. John's only other quality victories came against New Mexico and Providence.
Villanova has gotten back on track thanks mostly to their offensive attack with a 10th-highest efficiency rating. The Wildcats rank near the top of the charts in several categories with their best skill being long-range shooting knocking down 41 percent of three-point attempts, the fourth-highest mark overall. This is important in this matchup since St. John's is stout defensively with the sixth-best efficiency rating and especially strong inside the paint holding opponents to under 45 percent on two-point attempts. The Johnnies are a bit weaker on the outside as they're conceding a 34 percent rate at 213th.
Villanova's defense was their undoing early in the year at 167th in defensive efficiency. They've tightened things up a bit since as we saw against UConn, a team that boasts the second-highest offensive efficiency rating among all D-1 teams. St. John's, in contrast, only sits 49th in offensive efficiency. The Johnnies are often effective at scoring, though most of their success comes inside the arc as they're only making 30 percent of three-point attempts and rarely attempt them at 352nd overall. This kind of one-dimensional attack has often gotten the job done, but that might not be so easy on Saturday with Villanova holding opponents to 49 percent on two-pointers.
The Wildcats were impossible to trust early on, yet they're proving to be a powerful offensive side. There's a chance their defense lets us down, but I'm betting they'll keep pace considering how they match up against St. John's. I'm taking the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Villanova +7
Baylor 
at Arizona State
The Bears have won 10 of 14 games, including significant victories over Arkansas, St. John's, and Cincinnati. The number of losses isn't ideal, but each came against a team ranked top-30 of KenPom's overall efficiency chart: Gonzaga, Tennessee, Connecticut, and Iowa State. Through it all, Baylor sports the 19th-best overall efficiency rating going into Saturday.
The Sun Devils have an identical 10-4 record, though their resume doesn't look nearly as great at 58th in overall efficiency with their best wins coming against Santa Clara, New Mexico, and Saint Mary's. Their losses weren't close falling to Gonzaga, Florida, BYU, and Kansas by at least eight points. These are great teams, and the Sun Devils generally looked overmatched.
The Strength of Baylor lies on the offensive side of the ball where they rank 13th in efficiency. They're most effective on the offensive glass at 19th in offensive rebounding percentage. This is a helpful skill in any matchup, but it's more likely to come into play on Saturday as Arizona State are average on the defensive boards. On paper, the Sun Devils defense isn't bad sitting 35th in efficiency, though it's important to note they lost all four of their games against teams with a top-40 offensive efficiency rating.
Arizona State isn't quite as sharp at the other end of the court at 99th in offensive efficiency and subpar in two critical areas: offensive rebounding and turnover percentage, the latter being a key problem in this matchup as Baylor sits 25th in turnover percentage.
College Basketball Best Bet: Baylor -5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Tennessee -5
- Villanova +7
- Baylor -5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
