This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Gavitt Games conclude Friday evening, and, coming off a 3-0 sweep with yesterday's picks, Steve Peralta returns to preview all the action. Here are his best bets of the day.
Butler at 
Michigan State
Butler hasn't been great in recent years, going 6-14 against the Big East in each of the past two seasons. Considering last year's disappointing results, it's no surprise that the Bulldogs have a brand new roster, ranking near the bottom of the country in returning minutes. This has been a positive change thus far in the season, as Butler is 3-0 and has dominated each opponent, winning each game by 30-plus points. The caveat is that the Bulldogs have played one of the easiest schedules in the country, near the top 10 easiest among all D1 teams. The truth is, the first three games were more like exhibitions than D1 competitions. Either way, Butler has established itself as a strong defensive team over the past decade and change, and that is once again the case, as the Bulldogs rank in the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency entering Friday.
Michigan State is also a strong defensive team, ranking No. 15 in adjusted efficiency. The Spartans' only major question mark is on offense. Michigan State has made just 16 percent of its shots from behind the arc this season, which is somehow only the seventh-lowest percentage among all 362 D1 teams. This number will inevitably rise, as both Tyson Walker and Jaden Akins have made over 39 percent from three-point range in their careers, but the problem is that they're the only two shooters on the team with a great track record. Even if the percentage comes up, the lack of volume and threat of outside shooting will limit Michigan State's overall scoring potential throughout the season.
When looking at how these two teams will tangle with each other, we can also expect a slower-paced game. In nearly every season under coach Tom Izzo, Michigan State has played with an overall slower tempo. This was especially true last season, as the Spartans weren't too far from Virginia in its pace. Butler has also played at a slow tempo for most of the past decade, although this year's team surprisingly ranks among the fastest. This is a startling change at first, but if we account for the competition, then it makes more sense. Butler could run up and down the court unchallenged in its first three games, but that won't be the case at East Lansing on Friday.
Any way you look at it, this game has all the makings of a defensive battle. It's possible that Michigan State finally gets hot from behind the arc, but I'm betting defense will ultimately rule the day. I'm taking the under in this one.
Additionally, the Spartans' stock is seemingly at a low point after a couple of unfortunate early losses, but we can't forget that this same group of Spartans showed a tremendous amount of resiliency last season. For this reason, I'm also laying the points with Michigan State. The number isn't as low as I'd like; but, then again, they did beat two-seeded Marquette by nine points in the NCAA tournament last season. And on the other side of the equation, Butler's stock appears a bit inflated following a string of 'layup' games to start the season. I'm going with the Spartans.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 138.5 and Michigan St. -8.5
Maryland at 
Villanova
Maryland enters Friday ranked at No. 47 on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, although you might not guess they'd be that high considering they're limping into Friday following back-to-back losses. The record would be fine if the games were against elite competition, except in this case, the losses were to Davidson and UAB.
Despite the losses, Maryland's defense is looking sharp, holding opponents under 70 points in all three games. On the other end of the court, the scoring output has been horrendous. Maryland could only muster 68 points when hosting Mount St. Mary's in the season opener, then failed to score more than 63 points in either of the two losses. More specifically, outside scoring is a significant concern for the Terrapins. They have just one player with decent success shooting from behind the arc, Jahmir Young, and he's making just 34 percent in his career. As a team, Maryland is making 23 percent from three-point range, one of the worst percentages in the country.
This is in stark contrast to Friday's opponent in Villanova, which is one of the most productive long-range shooting teams in the country. The Wildcats are making 35 percent of three-pointers as a team, but what's more noteworthy, they have the fourth-highest three-point attempt rate in the nation. Villanova has several players who are capable of hitting 35-plus percent over a season, making it a potent offensive team.
All in all, it's hard to imagine the Terrapins keeping up with the Wildcats, especially when the game is at Finneran Pavilion. It's possible that Maryland's defense will rise to the occasion, but I'm not sure it matters if the Terrapins can't score. The spread isn't a low number; but, given how the Wildcats can shoot the ball, I believe we'll clear it. I'm laying the points with Villanova.
College Basketball Best Bet: Villanova -6
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Butler at Michigan St. - Under 138.5
- Michigan St. -8.5
- Villanova -6
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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