We are spoiled.
I cannot recall a time during the last 15 years where young talent was as prevalent throughout baseball as it is right now.
Carlos Correa did his part this postseason, particularly in Game 4 of the ALDS, to contribute toward the incredible campaign of the 2015 rookie class.
Correa returned more 5x5 roto value than Troy Tulowitzki this season, even though Tulo played in 29 more regular season games. In fact, only Xander Bogaerts was worth more at the shortstop position in 2015 than the $16 that Correa returned over his four-month stint with Houston.
Hitting 20+ homers with 10+ steals isn't completely rarified air, but doing it as a rookie at age-21 or younger is. Correa became only the fourth player in MLB history, and just the third in the Expansion Era (since 1961) to reach those levels. Not surprisingly, that short list is an impressive one.
The number that stands out the most to me is that Correa achieved that feat in just 99 games, which immediately leads us to dream on his full-season potential.
Where does he go from here?
Taking all of my restraint not to move Correa into the Top 10.
— Derek VanRiper (@DerekVanRiper) October 12, 2015
If he were to do the exact same thing over 150 games, we would have a shortstop with a .279/.345/.512 line along with 33 HR, 22 SB, 78 runs scored and 102 RBI in 2016.
Even with modest regression over a larger number of games played (should we believe that Correa's HR/FB% baseline is 24.2%?), he could be a .270/.340/.485 bat in the heart of a good order, in a hitter-friendly park, pushing 25 HR and racking up 20-25 steals with 175-180 R + RBI.
Of course, it's never that simple -- he could regress more than my initial projection as opposing teams will have plenty of time this offseason to try and find ways to get him out more frequently. It's also possible that he could improve in Year 2. After all, Harper was hardly a finished product in 2012.
The issue for me is less about his outstanding production this season and the seemingly limitless ceiling he possesses, and more about the quality of the alternatives available in the mid-to-late part of Round 1.
At the very top, most will have Harper, Mike Trout, and Paul Goldschmidt, along with Clayton Kershaw. The next block of players should include Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Giancarlo Stanton, and Anthony Rizzo -- in some order.
From there, there are still a slew of options deserving of consideration for a first-round placement, including Miguel Cabrera (maybe health is an ongoing problem now), Andrew McCutchen (healthy legs should help the steals come back), A.J. Pollock, Max Scherzer, Jose Altuve, and Chris Davis (in terms of dollars earned, Davis was a top-10 player in 2015, and he's been a first-rounder before, albeit a disappointing one). Does Jake Arrieta belong in this group?
If you care about positional scarcity, that is probably enough to ensure that Correa is a top-10 pick in drafts this winter and spring, but it feels as though the room will always have a smattering of owners willing to pay top dollar for the chance that Correa belongs in the same elite tier as Harper, Trout, and Goldschmidt.
@DerekVanRiper@RotoKoan CC over Pollock and E5 in a heartbeat. — Sabom3trics (@Sabom3trics) October 12, 2015
@DerekVanRiper Reasons not to put Correa in top ten: 1. uhhhhhhhh — Jon Hegglund (@RotoKoan) October 12, 2015
@DerekVanRiper he belongs in top-10. Steals bags too. — Christopher Liss (@Chris_Liss) October 12, 2015
I'll take him in the top 10 https://t.co/Hg2zt84k4u — Josh Hayes FSports (@JoshHayesFS) October 12, 2015
@DerekVanRiper Pro-rating his stats to even 150 games gives him 33 homers, 21 SBs. Plus SS is a wasteland. Top-5 overall for me.
— Kevin Payne (@KCPayne26) October 12, 2015
Maybe the owners unwilling to pony up a top-10 pick will be left holding the bag just like those (myself included) who were certain that Mike Trout would take a step back in 2013. Still, with a top-10 (or even a top-five) price tag, the margin for profit is tiny, and that may ultimately leave me in a position where I have few (if any) shares of Correa for 2016.
The RotoWire Roundtable Rankings for 2016 are in the early stages of assembly, and will be available during the first week of November. I am very curious to see where the staff currently positions Correa as we look ahead to draft season for 2016.
Where are you willing to take Correa in re-draft formats for 2016? Let me know on Twitter @DerekVanRiper.