Today is the day. The day you wait for all year. I've done the mocks. The industry drafts. But nothing is quite like your favorite home league draft. Nothing is like Draft Day.
And for me, when I draft, nothing is like hitting on a "sleeper." Landing that player just before he becomes a prolific star is not only a critical element of building a championship team, but it's also what makes this game where we put on our scout, coach and GM caps fun. I use the word sleeper in quotations because many people have varying takes on what is truly a sleeper. To me, a sleeper is a guy who's either yet to produce a top-20 season (or 10 depending on position) or a guy who has fallen from that perch and who sees his draft stock hurt as a result.
There are, of course, degrees of sleepers. Many of the names below others would call "breakouts" with No. 1 on the list an obvious name for that classification. But in rebuttal to that I would say that I'd gladly take someone who could potentially become Aaron Rodgers' top target among the first 15 receivers drafted. Despite some statistical concerns from his rookie season, particularly regarding his efficiency, Davante Adams' talent is such that he can easily overcome them in Year 2. Adams, like some of my other sleeper targets, are still undervalued in my book.
Now down to business. It's almost draft time after all. Here are my 12 hottest "sleeper" targets for my home league – standard scoring, keeper format. I went with 12 instead of 10 because it was my basketball number growing up, the street address of my mama's house my entire life, and well, because it's a nice, even number. Plus, I've been keeping Rodgers in this league for years…
- Davante Adams, WR (GB)
- Has the hands and tenacity to take contested passes away from defensive backs and is both elusive and physical after the catch. Oh yeah, and he's now been promoted to Rodgers' No. 2 target. He'll no longer be available at a substantial discount, but is worth the price of a high-end WR2 in any format. - Allen Robinson, WR (JAC)
- Shades of Dez Bryant and Anquan Boldin. Big-bodied, vice-handed, willful wideout with a clear path to his team's No. 1 role. Robinson was underrated in a 2014 draft class loaded with receiver talent, but there's Pro Bowls in his near future. - Doug Martin, RB (TB)
- Martin's monster rookie season was owed to a blend of quickness, balance and decisiveness. Injuries sapped much of that the past two years as he ran tentatively behind poor blocking. In a contract year his focus on conditioning has him prepared to re-invent the "Muscle Hamster" moniker he portrayed as a one-time fantasy stud. - Tyler Eifert, TE (CIN)
- A precise route runner with soft hands, quickness after the catch and an innate sense for finding holes in coverage, Eifert is essentially an oversized wide receiver. With Jermaine Gresham gone it's his time to flourish as the No. 2 target in Cinci. - Michael Crabtree, WR (OAK)
- Crabtree excels in a quick-hitting short passing attack, a.k.a. exactly what Derek Carr does well. The healthiest he's been since a 1,105-yard breakout 2012 campaign, the sure-handed, slippery veteran receiver will deliver as the 1B to Amari Cooper's 1A in a contract year. - Andy Dalton, QB (CIN)
- Dalton had A.J. Green, Eifert, Marvin Jones and Giovani Bernard miss a combined 37 games last year and parts of others to injury. And he still totaled 24 touchdowns, including four rushing and one receiving. He's a football player, pure and simple. And now ALL his weapons are healthy. - John Brown & Michael Floyd, WR (AZ)
- A Carson Palmer offense for 16 games will throw for more than 4,000 yards. If Palmer's body holds up, this speedy duo will both thrive in a vertical passing attack and could be the first pair of 1,000-yard wideouts in the desert since Larry Fitzgerald and Boldin in 2009. - Eddie Royal, WR (CHI)
- Underrated as Philip Rivers' slot man the past two seasons, Royal is a less explosive Brandin Cooks. The injury to Kevin White and the fact that Jay Cutler connected with Royal 91 times in the wideout's rookie season way back in 2008 are just icing on the cake here. - Devonta Freeman, RB (ATL)
- There's nothing to say about Freeman statistically to back up this designation. Kyle Shanahan offenses simply run the ball well. And while I also like Tevin Coleman's one-cut, slashing style, I see Dan Quinn falling in love with a gritty, lunch-pail runner in Freeman. - Steve Johnson, WR (SD)
- In the five seasons since Johnson first became a starting receiver Rivers has thrown for 4,236 more yards than the QB's from which Johnson's snagged passes. With Royal taking his 91 targets to Chicago and Antonio Gates suspended four games to start the year, Johnson is in prime position to re-visit the days of his three straight 1,000-yard campaigns in Buffalo. - Roy Helu, RB (OAK)
- A sensational receiver out of the backfield, Helu caught 89% of his targets last year for an eye-popping 11.4 yards per catch. An efficient runner as well with size, speed and burst, it took him just 82 touches to tally 693 yards and three TD's. Behind only the unproven Latavius Murray there's PPR value out of the gate and huge upside if the latter suffers an injury. - Jonas Gray, RB (NE)
- The out-of-nowhere fantasy explosion and disappearance of Gray was well documented last year, and yes, the bigger big back Bill Belichick signed following Gray's monster game in 2014 is still around to lead the ground attack after a Week 1 suspension. But bottom line, Gray is equally if not more so explosive than LeGarrette Blount, and he's the lead rusher in a Tom Brady offense if anything happens to the former Oregon Duck.
If you've read this far you're probably thinking (besides of course how accurate my assessment of talent is) that this lying expletive made it a point to explain why he chose "twelve" sleepers. Well, yes, there are 13 guys listed. I guess there's simply never enough sleepers...